Let’s face it – the most fun part of fantasy football is the draft, and we all know the true degens are already knee-deep in startups, best balls, and mocks. It’s NEVER too early, and ADPs are beginning to normalize as free agency wraps up. Of course, we still have the draft to muddy things a bit in a couple of weeks.

The early picks in a draft are pretty straightforward so far. You’re taking Jonathan Taylor (RB – IND) No. 1; a group of 3-4 players can be drafted at #2. The later picks in the draft have to be more flexible and a little less “planned,” so here is a mock draft I did from the #10 spot, using our FantasyPros Mock Draft Simulator (1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 FLEX, 1 K, 1 D/ST, full-PPR scoring) with analysis of each pick. The entire draft board is shown at the bottom of this article.

ROUND 1 – Justin Jefferson (WR – MIN)

ROUND 2 – D’Andre Swift (RB – DET)

I’m still more of a running back guy early on, but Jefferson is as bankable as first-round picks come at 1.10. He’s finished WR6 and WR4 in PPR formats the last two seasons and finished second in receiving yards, fourth in targets, and first in air yards. He’s not even 23 yet, so it’s possible we haven’t even unlocked his ceiling.

Swift was a more challenging call because comparable RBs were sitting there alongside him. In a perfect world, I’d have been thrilled with Alvin Kamara (RB – NO) as a second-round pick, but I thoroughly think he will be suspended for a part of the coming year and has been off my draft board for the time being. Nick Chubb (RB – CLE) was the other consideration, but his lack of role in the passing game and the presence of Kareem Hunt (RB – CLE) pushed me to Swift. Swift has top-5 RB potential in the Detroit offense after finishing fourth in targets, fourth in catches, and fifth in receiving yards among RBs despite missing five games to injury.

ROUND 3 – Josh Jacobs (RB – LV)

ROUND 4 – Mike Evans (WR – TB)

Last year I screamed my Joe Mixon (RB – CIN) love to the heavens, and it paid off. This year my guy is Josh Jacobs, and I’m aggressively targeting him in rounds 3/4 of drafts right now. Jacobs gets a bad rep during the draft season for “not being involved enough in the passing game,” but it bears mentioning that he was top 12 in both target share with 12.4% and routes run with 253. He was also fifth in the NFL in receptions with 54 despite Kenyan Drake (RB – LV) dominating the passing downs at the beginning of the year. Jacobs was also efficient in his receptions with an 84.4% catch rate, the 7th best among RBs. The addition of Davante Adams (WR – LV) to the Raiders’ passing game should only open up the rest of the offense more.

I honestly think the whole industry is low on Mike Evans. He only had 68 catches last year, but his air yards were 15th in the league, and he has 12 TDs. Tom Brady (QB – TB) is back, Antonio Brown (WR – TB) is gone, Gronk is a question mark, and Chris Godwin (WR – TB) may miss time or be limited in the early part of the season.

ROUND 5 – Darren Waller (TE – LV)

ROUND 6 – Michael Carter (RB – NYJ)

After finishing TE3 in 2019 and TE2 in 2020, Waller was a major disappointment in 2021, missing six games to injury and finishing TE16. He’s going to be 30, and Davante Adams will be a problem as far as targets go, but this was too far to let Waller fall. He should still be a top-5 TE if healthy in an offense that will be uber-efficient.

There’s a chance the Jets will address the RB position in the draft if things fall right, but as of now, Carter is a solid value in round six. He was top 12 in yards created per touch last season and has an active role in the passing game, which gives him a solid PPR floor.

ROUND 7 – Michael Thomas (WR – NO)

ROUND 8 – Damien Harris (RB – NE)

There is a definite risk in investing in Thomas after missing the entire 2021 season and nine games of the 2020 campaign. I’m good with it at 7.10, though, and I expect his ADP will rise once camps begin if he shows health and explosiveness. I assume the Saints will draft a WR, but Jameis Winston (QB – NO) at QB will only help Thomas, and he’ll see extra targets his way if Alvin Kamara is suspended.

Harris is another guy I’m very aggressive with in the draft process early on. He’s not involved in the passing game, but he saw 46 red zone opportunities last season (12th in the league), and he scored 15 rushing TDs (Jonathan Taylor is the only RB who had more). The sub-50% snap share shouldn’t be a considerable worry either, as his health will benefit from less usage than the guys who will see 300+ touches.

ROUND 9 – Rondale Moore (WR – ARI)

ROUND 10 – Tom Brady

I’m a classic “wait on QBs” guy in non-Superflex leagues, but there were still some good ones on the board here, so I strongly considered taking one at 9.10. The 11th and 12th teams had already drafted QBs, though, nabbing Rodgers and Burrow earlier, so I thought it safe to push it one more round and take the best available QB on the turn in round 10. This got me Rondale Moore, who I was big on as a rookie and am even higher on this year with all the vacated targets in Arizona (Christian Kirk (WR – JAC) and Chase Edmonds (RB – MIA) are gone).

I usually like my QBs to have some semblance of rushing upside, but it’s Tom Frickin’ Brady in round 10. Please give me that all day long, and then some.

ROUND 11 – Drake London (FA)

ROUND 12 – Treylon Burks (FA)

Here’s where the fun begins! I’ve got my baseline set for the skill positions, so what better spot than rounds 11 and 12 to grab the upside of the rookie WRs. The landing spot is everything for these two guys, but I have no problem taking chances here and hoping to catch lightning in a bottle at least once. In my latest, I’ve currently mocked London to Atlanta and Burks to KC, and I’m happy with either (ATL – opportunity, KC – elite offense).

ROUND 13 – Robert Tonyan (TE – GB)

ROUND 14 – San Francisco D/ST

I’m not a big proponent of backup TEs in redraft, especially if you already have one that’s considered a top-5 option, but I felt the value of Tonyan was too good to pass up here with Davante Adams out of town. The 11-TD season in 2020 was fluky, but it’s possible there’s not as much negative regression as previously thought. If he’s leaned on a bit more with the connection he already has with Rodgers, there’s flex appeal here, and not just as a “backup.”

I grabbed a tier-one unit that was fifth in sacks and added Charvarius Ward (CB – SF) to the secondary for my defense. The division is tough, but Seattle twice is an easy draw after allowing 46 sacks last year and experiencing a massive QB downgrade. Arizona’s OL was also ranked in the bottom half of the league.

ROUND 15 – Marlon Mack (RB – HOU)

ROUND 16 – Matt Gay (K – LAR)

Houston has no defined starting RB right now with only Rex Burkhead (RB – HOU) and Royce Freeman (RB – HOU) currently in town, so this is a low-risk, medium-reward pick at the very end of the draft. He’ll obviously lose value if Houston decides to take one of the top backs in the draft, but I like the value here.

My kicker is always last in drafts unless scoring dictates otherwise. I like good offenses for my kickers, and the Rams were tied for seventh in PPG last year and added Allen Robinson II (WR – LAR) in free agency.

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Jamie Calandro is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Jamie, please check out his archive.