As we enter the summer and offseason activities quickly transform into the regular season, we need to turn our attention to where fantasy seasons are won and lost: pre-draft rankings. The following list includes players that represent the best value based on their ADP (average draft position) on one of the most popular fantasy football platforms around: Yahoo.
Please note that the following rankings are based on .5-PPR League Settings. The current ADP list for Yahoo leagues can be found here. Both the Yahoo pre-draft rankings and ADP list were used when considering these players.
Ryan Tannehill (QB – TEN): QB25
According to Yahoo pre-draft rankings, Ryan Tannehill is the QB25. His current ADP puts him closer to the QB20 position, very near his current ECR (expert consensus ranking) of QB21. The reason why he’s an ADP value is that even at the QB20 position, he’s highly undervalued.
Since becoming the full-time starting QB for the Tennessee Titans, he’s done nothing but ball out. He was the QB21 in 2019, but he only started 12 games for the Titans, putting up 22 passing TDs and four rushing TDs over that span. The next two seasons, he finished as QB7 and QB13, respectively. This past year, when he was QB13, it can be argued that he outproduced what we should have expected. He played half the season without Derrick Henry, Julio Jones did next to nothing in what will end up being his only season with the team and A.J. Brown missed four games with injury and spent much of the season playing through those injuries. Despite having very little help from the talent around him, he still threw 21 TDs and ran for another seven TDs.
In leagues that have drafted so far, Tannehill has been selected in just 4% of drafts. He’s going largely undrafted and even has a lower ADP than players like Kenny Pickett, Deshaun Watson (who may spend the year on suspension) and Jared Goff. In other words, ADP is a fluid system of judgment. For now, all you need to know is that Tannehill is not being selected as a top QB option, despite the fact that he’ll have his starting RB back and a new WR1 and WR2 with Treylon Burks and Robert Woods. He’ll continue to have rushing upside, and Malik Willis is far less of a threat than some would have you believe.
Conner has the pre-draft ranking of RB21 by Yahoo and is the current ADP RB17. According to ECR, he’s the RB15 in .5-PPR leagues. Based on those numbers alone, he represents a player that you can nab at a bargain. Consider that the difference between RB15 and RB17 is roughly two picks (pick 30.9 and pick 32.7) but the difference between RB15 and RB21 is roughly 10 picks (30.9 and 41.7). This means that as we push closer to fantasy football draft season, his ADP will likely drop closer to the RB21 value. Even now, he’s got value at his ADP, but his value will only become more favorable over time.
In 2021, Conner joined the Arizona Cardinals and became the feature back for the team. He put up a low YPC (yards per carry) average but he totaled over 1,000 scrimmage yards and put up 18 total TDs. He’s being drafted right after Antonio Gibson, Saquon Barkley and David Montgomery. After finishing as the RB7 last season, he easily represents a player that could repeat his value. The Cardinals want to establish the run and Conner should see less competition for pass-catching work now that Chase Edmonds is in Miami. If he stays healthy, his workload alone will put him in the top-12 RBs.
Darnell Mooney (WR – CHI): WR32
Mooney carries a pre-draft ranking of WR32, but he may have even less clout on Yahoo than that. He’s the ADP WR37, meaning he’s currently being drafted later than what Yahoo experts are projecting for him. This means he’s one of the biggest ADP bargains on the platform right now. FantasyPros ECR has him ranked as the WR26 in .5-PPR leagues, which also happens to be where he finished the 2021 season. He was WR26 and did so on just five total TDs and with numerous issues that plagued the entire offense.
Mooney has some major upside but he also has a solid floor. He posted his first season with over 1,000 receiving yards in 2021 and established himself as the WR1 for the Bears. There’s almost no reason to think he can’t repeat or improve upon that finish. The Bears will need Justin Fields to take a major leap in the right direction in 2022, but fantasy managers know how things should go for Mooney if Fields doesn’t improve (hint: WR26 is his floor). Allen Robinson is now a member of the Los Angeles Rams and the Bears presumably are on the hunt for a WR2 for their roster. Mooney will benefit from a general lack of competition on the Bears roster, but he may also benefit from an improved Justin Fields. In short, not much needs to happen for him to beat his current ADP.
The Chicago Bears will very likely have a bad season in 2022, but even the worst teams can support fantasy production. Kmet is the TE16 in Yahoo pre-draft rankings and he’s the ADP TE24, meaning he’s being left undrafted with relative consistency. The shocking revelation in all of this is that he’s the ECR TE13, so he’s got an 11-spot difference in his ECR vs his ADP on Yahoo. That’s a screaming buy.
Kmet is entering his third NFL season, which is around the time that TEs seem to become usable fantasy options. His maturation isn’t the only thing to bet on, however. Last season, he had the eighth-most targets for all TEs in the league (93). He didn’t score in 2021, so he’ll presumably experience some positive TD regression. Additionally, he’s the de facto secondary receiving option on this offense behind Darnell Mooney. Like Mooney, he’ll get enough work in this offense to have a solid floor, but the lack of surrounding talent could mean that he’ll be relied upon enough to push him farther up the rankings. As the ADP TE24, you can truly wait until your last pick in the draft to draft him.
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Tim Metzler is a featured writer at FantasyPros, known for multiple article series’, including 5 Under 25, Expert Consensus Rantings, his in-season Running Diary and for his dynasty IDP rankings. For more from Tim, check out his archive and follow him @Timmy_The_Metz.
