In our “Closer Look” series, we’re examining ambiguous, hard-to-read position groups and offering advice on how to handle them in 2022 fantasy football drafts. In this installment, Gary Zamarripa takes a closer look at the WR position for the New Orleans Saints.

• A Closer Look at the Packers Wide Receivers
• A Closer Look at the Chiefs Wide Receivers
• A Closer Look at the Falcons Running Backs
• A Closer Look at the Cardinals Wide Receivers
• A Closer Look at the Dolphins Running Backs
• A Closer Look at the Patriots Running Backs
• A Closer Look at the Broncos Wide Receivers
• A Closer Look at the Patriots Wide Receivers
• A Closer Look at the Jaguars Wide Receivers
• A Closer Look at the Texans Running Backs
• A Closer Look at the Jets Wide Receivers
• A Closer Look at the Packers Wide Receivers
• A Closer Look at the Giants Wide Receivers

The Saints took the field last season for the first time in 15 years without the familiar face of Drew Brees behind center as the starting quarterback. In the first year of the post-Brees era, the Saints looked to fill the gap by signing Jameis Winston to a one-year, $12 million contract. Winston tore his ACL in Week 8 and the team ended up with a trio of Trevor Siemian, Taysom Hill, and Ian Book to round out the season.

Entering 2022 the Saints re-signed Winston to a two-year, $28 million contract and the Saints are back to the beginning of last season. As we dig into the outlook for the wide receiver group it’s important to know who will be delivering the ball. As it stands now, they are in the capable hands of Winston who has proven he can support fantasy-relevant receivers. In 2019, his last year with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, he threw for over 5100 yards and 33 touchdowns. In every season he’s played all 16 games, he’s averaged over 4,000 yards each year. Let’s take a look at who Jameis will be throwing to this season.

Primary Contributors

ADP courtesy of Underdog Fantasy

Michael Thomas (ADP: WR40, Overall 81)

The last time Michael Thomas played a full season of games in 2019 he set the NFL record for catches with 149, leading to 1725 yards and nine touchdowns. He scored over 375 fantasy points in PPR leagues and was considered the number one wide receiver and a universal first-round fantasy pick.

In Week 1 of the 2020 season, he suffered a high ankle sprain and missed most of the remainder of the season. Add that to missing the entire season in 2021 with ankle surgery and there are a lot of questions around Thomas heading into the 2022 season.

Chris Olave (ADP: WR45, Overall 92)

Chris Olave was drafted 11^th overall in the first round of the 2022 draft. He was a touchdown-catching beast at Ohio State and enters the NFL and the Saints depth chart with a lot of promise. Olave was considered a pro-ready prospect and is a downfield threat, which could be a perfect match for Winston’s tendency to throw the long ball. The depth chart is wide open and he is poised to step right in and become a big part of this offense.

Jarvis Landry (ADP: WR60, Overall 130)

The former Miami Dolphins and Cleveland Browns receiver finds his way into the Saints’ organization after signing a fully guaranteed one-year, $3 million contract in the offseason. Landry injured his knee in the second game of last season and was released by the Browns this spring. He enters this season fully healthy and ready to contribute.

Other Potential Contributors

Marquez Callaway (ADP: WR111, Overall 215)

Marquez Callaway joined the team as an undrafted free agent after the 2020 draft and played sparingly that year. In year two, he managed to put up almost 700 yards and six touchdowns and showed reliability in the midst of injuries in the Saints’ wide receiver room.

Tre’Quan Smith (ADP: WR145, Overall 216)

Tre’Quan Smith entered the league with the Saints drafting him in the third round of the 2018 draft. He finished his rookie campaign with a respectable 427 yards and five touchdowns. He struggled through the next three seasons with injuries and never really built on his promising rookie year. He was awarded a two-year, $6 million contract this spring.

Analysis

Assuming Jameis Winston plays a full slate of games next season, we know from past statistics he has at least 4,000 yards to distribute to his receiving corps. Who gets those yards is the big question. There is no unquestioned top guy as of right now.

A healthy Michael Thomas would flip the conversation on its head because he has proven he can be the top dog on this team. It has to be said that Thomas is an injury risk based on the last two seasons. His range of outcomes goes from solid WR2 all the way to IR candidate. He is the ultimate risk/reward draft pick this season.

Olave is an interesting player because he is a deep threat and as mentioned before, he lines up with Winston loving to throw the deep ball. He is also a touchdown magnet as proven by his team record 35 TDs at Ohio State. He is the only presumed starter to play a different style of football. He is a big play, downfield guy, and both Thomas and Landry are short-to-intermediate route runners.

Landry and Thomas have a similar playing style. Assuming all are healthy and starting at the same time, they would be running the same routes and possibly tearing into each other’s production. It could also mean the defensive coordinator of the opposing team would have to decide which player to double cover or put their top cornerback on leaving both players with potential opportunities.

How to Value These Players

The most important part of figuring out where to draft a player is based on ADP vs potential fantasy points they will bring to your team. At first glance of current ADP, all three top guys appear to have different values based on the other players drafted around them.

Michael Thomas is the highest-ranking player but comes with a huge injury risk. He also comes with a potentially high ceiling in PPR formats. It all depends on your risk tolerance. Thomas coming off the board at 81 overall seems a bit high, considering the injury risk. I’d prefer Tom Brady or Trey Lance in that ADP range (non-superflex) if you missed out on a QB early, or take a shot on Tony Pollard (who has league-winning upside) in the seventh round.

Olave is in the tier below Thomas and his tier mates are the likes of Damien Harris, Matt Stafford, and Kareem Hunt. All good players to help your team, so it depends on the other players you’ve drafted until now. Olave would seem to have the highest upside among the players mentioned. If you are looking for a flyer with a high (and potentially low) floor, Olave can fit that bill.

Landry projects to be a PPR league producer and is available three and a half rounds later than Olave. He is a proven and reliable asset and is being drafted as the 130^th player overall. The players in his ADP range are Tua Tagovailoa, Cole Kmet, and rookie Dameon Pierce. There are lots of questions with that bunch, so Landry’s ADP seems like a value. He’s not a swing-for-the-fences type of player but he can be counted on as a weekly starter on your fantasy team.

All other Saints pass catchers can remain safely on the waiver wire unless the injury bug strikes one of the top three guys. There’s just not enough upside to investing a draft pick on anyone other than the potential contributors.

If you want to dive deeper into fantasy football, check out our award-winning slate of Fantasy Football Tools as you navigate your season. From our Start/Sit Assistant – which provides your optimal lineup based on accurate consensus projections – to our Waiver Wire Assistant, which allows you to quickly see which available players will improve your team and how much – we’ve got you covered this fantasy football season.

Gary Zamarripa is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Gary, check out his archive and follow him on Twitter @garyzamFF.