A great way to get a sense of players to target and a void is to see how our expert rankings compare to average draft position (ADP). If the ADP is higher than the expert rankings, you may want to consider these players at their current draft-day cost. Let’s take a look at players our expert consensus likes less than ADP.
Rankings noted using FantasyPros half-PPR Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR) and Consensus ADP.
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Dak Prescott (DAL)
ECR QB10 | ADP QB7
With their backs up against the salary cap, the Dallas Cowboys didn’t have an offseason to remember for anybody heavily invested in Dak Prescott’s 2022 fantasy prospects. They gave up Amari Cooper and lost two key starting offensive pieces on the offensive line with La’el Collins and Connor Williams for little return.
They did re-sign Dalton Schultz and Michael Gallup, but early reports on Gallup indicate it will be close whether he’s ready for Week 1 coming off the torn ACL. Dallas’ biggest move in free agency and the NFL Draft to combat their losses was signing former Steelers wide receiver James Washington, drafting Jalen Tolbert in Round 3, and selecting offensive tackle project Tyler Smith in Round 1.
With many other quarterbacks benefitting from better team off-seasons, Prescott has fallen in my rankings well past his QB9 ADP, making it less likely I draft him. He finished as the QB9 last year in points per game, and I’d argue his situation – aside from health – isn’t as ideal as it was a season ago. His rushing also hit career-low numbers in 2021.
Aaron Rodgers (GB)
ECR QB13 | ADP QB10
Placing Aaron Rodgers in the “players to avoid” category feels like grabbing at low-hanging fruit, but it’s just so obvious his fantasy ceiling is going to be hindered this year without his No. 1 wide receiver, Davante Adams.
The one game the Packers signal-caller played without his No. 1 receiver in 2021 was his third-worst fantasy finish of the season. And Rodgers’ only healthy season-long fantasy finish outside the top-8 came in a season where Adams missed four games.
The dynamic duo’s chemistry was never more apparent in or near the red zone, with Rodgers-Adams combining for 64 touchdowns – double-digits on average – since 2016, 23 more than the next closest duo (Patrick Mahomes and Tyreek Hill). Thirty-three percent of Rodgers touchdowns have gone to Adams over that period.
Green Bay has bolstered their wide receiver room through free agency and the draft, but it’s still improbable that they can make up for Adams’ production – especially in the red zone. Without Adams, it’s hard to buy Rodgers as a top-12 fantasy quarterback in 2022.
David Montgomery (CHI)
ECR RB18 | ADP RB15
Despite being an entrenched workhorse, David Montgomery finished as a top-24 running back in fewer than half of his contests last season (46%). Former sixth-rounder Khalil Herbert was a top-12 running back in two of his five games last season when he received at least a 50% snap share.
Just don’t draft David Montgomery. Projected volume is the only reason he’s going where his ADP is, but a new coaching staff could approach the backfield differently. In my heart of hearts, I think Herbert is the better, more explosive back. Monty finished outside the top 24 in more than half of his games last season. His 2022 ADP hits inside the top-20 RBs. No thanks.
Antonio Gibson (WAS)
ECR RB21 | ADP RB19
Antonio Gibson has been a solid option over the last two seasons as the RB16 and RB17 in fantasy points per game. He also ranked 10th in yards per route run, fifth in evaded tackles, and 14th in juke rate. He was tied for seventh in carries inside the five-yard line and eighth in weighted opportunities. We already know the pass game usage is capped with J.D. McKissic resigned, but now the goalline could be in jeopardy with Brian Robinson on the depth chart. The team has talked about lightening Gibson’s load, so the threat of Robinson is real, especially if Gibson keeps putting the ball on the turf. Since 2020 he’s tied with Ezekiel Elliott for the most fumbles (six) in the NFL among running backs.
Josh Jacobs (LV)
ECR RB23 | ADP RB20
Josh Jacobs was a volume hog last year, ranking ninth in opportunity share and weighted opportunity, but that will be difficult to repeat in 2022. Jacobs’ ranking of RB23 in ECR is ambitious, considering he’ll be sitting on the sidelines on many passing downs. Brandon Bolden, Kenyan Drake, and Ameer Abdullah ranked fourth, sixth, and 15th in yards per route run last year among running backs (minimum 20 targets, per PFF). If any of these backs (or Zamir White) also eat into his red-zone work, he’s toast in 2022.
Jaylen Waddle (MIA)
ECR WR17 | ADP WR13
Jaylen Waddle looked primed to make the leap into the top-12 conversation after a stellar rookie season. Along with breaking Anquan Boldin’s rookie reception record, Waddle commanded a 22% target share and 24% target rate per route run – 18th-best in the NFL.
But with the expensive addition of veteran Tyreek Hill, it is less likely that Waddle is the clear-cut No. 1 receiver in Miami. Hill is coming off a season where he commanded the league’s seventh-highest target rate per route run (27%). The trade moves Waddle down from a fringe WR1 to mid-range fantasy WR2 after seeing almost zero target competition last season.
DK Metcalf (SEA)
ECR WR20 | ADP WR17
The difference between having Geno Smith/Drew Lock at quarterback versus Russell Wilson cannot be overstated enough. It’s a horrible situation to be in and puts D.K. Metcalf in a tough spot.
Although the alpha wideout did rise to the occasion under a small sample size last season, averaging 14.9 fantasy points per game (15th – same as his final season-long standing) without Wilson at quarterback for three games.
But I am suspecting that removing their quarterback that led the NFL in yards per attempt (10.4), passer rating (133.6), and passer rating from a clean pocket (130.9) before his finger injury is going to create a much larger impact over a 17-game sample size.
Adam Thielen (MIN)
ECR WR34 | ADP WR30
The 32-year old wideout has made his hay in fantasy because of his “ability” to find the end zone 24 times since the start of 2020, but it’s something that just isn’t sustainable in the long term. Based on Thielen’s targets and yardage totals, his total TD number should be closer to 16.
Justin Jefferson is an ascending rocketship that will only see his TDs rise entering Year 3, most likely coming at the detriment of Thielen. Not to mention, AT’s age may finally be catching up to him after he posted his lowest PFF receiving grade and yards per route run since he first became a starter back in 2016.
DeAndre Hopkins (ARI)
ECR WR40 | ADP WR35
DeAndre Hopkins wasn’t completely washed last season, but his days as an elite alpha wide receiver could be over. Last season he was the WR21 in fantasy points per game as he logged his first season since 2017 outside the top 20 in targets per snap. Hopkins only commanded a 20.5% target share which was good for 35th among wideouts. While the suspension should ensure that Hopkins will return fully healthy, it’s not a sure thing that we don’t see his numbers decline further in 2022. He ranked 31st in yards per route run last season (minimum 50 targets, per PFF).
Mike Gesicki (MIA)
ECR TE13 | ADP TE11
Mike Gesicki may see his target numbers dip in 2022 in a run-heavy offense alongside target magnets Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill. That will make his 2021 production difficult to replicate.
The tight end/slot receiver hybrid finished sixth in receptions, ninth in receiving yards, fourth in route participation (78%), and fifth in target share (17%) through 18 weeks of action of the 2021 season. This receiving and route volume led to only moderate success in fantasy football, as Mike Gesicki finished as TE9.
His efficiency metrics left something to be desired, though – he was 13th in fantasy points per game (9.9) and 15th in yards per route run. Part of that does fall on the up-and-down quarterback play, but it just further cements Gesicki as a good, not great tight end in fantasy football.
My biggest concern is that Gesicki has almost always underwhelmed after the catch – which will likely be a large part of the Dolphins new-look offense. His 3.2 YAC/reception ranked 41st of out 42 qualifying tight ends.
Gesicki did deliver worthwhile fantasy production at times, as displayed by his TE6 standing from Weeks 3-15 (11.5 fantasy points per game). And 94% of his snaps came lined up in the slot or out wide in 2021, which is another advantage for creating mismatches.
But all in all, he tends to only rise to the occasion for fantasy purposes when targets become available in the offense because of injuries to other players.
The athletic tight end will end up meeting his mid-range 2022 ADP/ECR based on his consistent play the past two seasons, but won’t enter the top-tier fantasy tight end conversation.
Evan Engram (JAC)
ECR TE22 | ADP TE18
Evan Engram‘s PFF receiving grade has declined over the last four seasons, bottoming out in 2021 at 54.9 – 40th among 44 qualifying tight ends.
And he hasn’t disappointed due to a lack of opportunities, either. He finished top-15 in route participation (68%) and had almost zero competition for targets with injuries to Kenny Golladay, Kadarius Toney, and Sterling Shepard.
Alas, Engram failed to command any worthwhile target share with his abysmal 14% target rate per route run. So consider me slightly hesitant to buy into Engram breaking out in 2022 because his new head coach has a history of featuring tight ends. Sure, it works in Engram’s favor, but last I checked Dan Arnold is still on the team. And Doug Pederson has also been known to heavily feature two tight ends in his offense, which doesn’t always translate to fantasy success.
FantasyPros Staff Consensus 2022 Redraft Fantasy Football Rankings
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