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Wide Receiver aDOT Analysis (2022 Fantasy Football)

Wide Receiver aDOT Analysis (2022 Fantasy Football)

The concept of a player being better in best-ball leagues than managed leagues is real, even if it’s often overused. Typically, the player who fits that archetype perfectly is a volatile receiver. One integral input for receiver volatility is how deep they’re being targeted.

Obviously, deeper passes are impactful when completed. However, they’re lower-percentage throws. Still, not every player with a deep Average Depth of Target (aDoT) is created equal. Additionally, players who pile up short receptions aren’t necessarily inferior to their field-stretching peers. The depth of field where receivers are targeted is one piece of the puzzle, and this article will present the 2021 leaderboards for the receivers targeted deepest and shallowest.

Average Depth of Target (Pro Football Focus)

Many football outlets track aDoT. I chose to use the info at Pro Football Focus (PFF) for this piece. So, the following marks on the leaderboards might differ slightly from other statistics providers. To expand on a point from the intro, receivers with a high Target Share and a deep aDoT are highly desirable players. Conversely, players with a low Target Share at a deep aDoT are more volatile and better fit in best-ball leagues or traditional scoring (i.e., non-point-per-reception (PPR) leagues). For instance, a 40-yard bomb is equal to hauling in four 10-yard receptions in traditional formats, making the path to receiving yards less critical.

Leaders

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It's another advanced stats leaderboard that includes Justin Jefferson. Reiterating a point from previous pieces, Jefferson is in the same two-receiver tier one for wide receivers with Cooper Kupp. Jefferson blended target volume, deep-ball usage and efficiency perfectly last year.

The Eagles have three players on this leaderboard. Obviously, A.J. Brown was on the Titans last year. However, a draft-day trade brings him to the City of Brotherly Love. Maybe, he'll continue to be used deep regularly. However, Brown has been a load with the ball in his hands. Sadly, according to Sports Info Solutions (SIS), he had a career-low 3.7 Yards After the Catch per Reception (YAC Per Rec) in 2021. Still, he had 8.9 YAC Per Rec as a rookie in 2019 and 6.1 YAC Per Rec in 2020. As a result, Brown could revert to a YAC-monster with his new ball club.

Conceivably, Brown returning to his previous form could be a boon or DeVonta Smith on deep balls. There are only so many resources a defense can devote to stopping opposing receivers. Thus, if the opposition starts to turn their attention to Brown, Smith can eat deep. Still, the Eagles were a run-heavy team after opening it up unsuccessfully early in 2021. Philadelphia could throw more this year with their offseason upgrade at receiver, but it will be challenging to feed Brown, Smith and Dallas Goedert regularly.

Sticking in the NFC East, Terry McLaurin should benefit from a change at quarterback. Onlookers understandably criticize the Commanders for hitching their wagon to Carson Wentz this year. Nevertheless, he's an upgrade from Taylor Heinicke, especially on deep passes.

According to PFF, Heinecke completed only 22 of 67 passes (32.8%) 20-plus yards for 665 yards, eight touchdowns, eight interceptions and ranked 37th in PFF passing grade out of 39 quarterbacks with at least 15 deep passes (20-plus yards). Comparatively, Wentz earned PFF's 13th-best grade on deep balls, completing 25 of 59 attempts (42.4%) for 842 yards, seven touchdowns and three interceptions.

McLaurin is a deep-ball weapon who's also a target hog. He had a 24.4% Target Share in 2021. McLaurin's upside is immense this year, and he's an excellent target at his 43.7 (WR15) average draft position (ADP) in PPR formats. Washington's No. 1 receiver is a better pick than Jaylen Waddle (42.3) and Diontae Johnson (38.7). Moreover, gamers are encouraged to pass on Tyreek Hill (18.7) in favor of the running backs going around him and pop McLaurin two rounds later.

Notable Non-Qualifier (Under 50 Targets)

Marquez Valdes-Scantling (WR - KC): 137.3 ADP/ WR54, 132 ECR/ WR56, 18.2 aDoT

Valdes-Scantling narrowly missed the cutoff line at PFF. However, the speedster's 18.2-yard aDoT was the second-deepest among players with at least 30 targets, including the playoffs. MVS goes from catching passes from the back-to-back MVP, Aaron Rodgers, to hauling in balls from the 2018 NFL MVP, Patrick Mahomes. What a tough life for a receiver.

Joking aside, the move at quarterback is probably lateral for MVS. If someone is looking for a reason for optimism about the veteran speedster improving with a change of scenery, new usage is the best-case scenario. Head coach Andy Reid said MVS can "work some of the primary underneath routes that he maybe didn't do quite as much in Green Bay because of who they had there." It's prudent to take offseason quotes with a grain of salt, but it's still a nugget of info to consider.

Valdes-Scantling is a reasonable target at his ADP, even in PPR formats. Sure, he's a better fit in best ball and non-PPR leagues. However, he has a path to being the second pass-catching option behind Travis Kelce in a Mahomes-led offense. That's an attractive outcome for a receiver with an ADP after WR50.

Laggers

Rondale Moore was featured with the laggers in Intended Air Yards. So, instead of regurgitating many of the same talking points, readers are encouraged to check out that piece. Thus, Cole Beasley and Jamison Crowder are the intriguing players on the laggers' leaderboard. Beasley is a free agent, and the Bills agreed to a low-salary one-year contract with incentives with Crowder.

The slot role was fantasy-friendly for Beasley in 2020, resulting in a tie for WR29 in PPR per-game scoring among wideouts who played at least nine games. Crowder probably won't match that finish, but it might be within his range of ceiling outcomes. First, however, he'll have to fend off Isaiah McKenzie, and that's not a given.

Additionally, as Beasley did, McKenzie has operated as an underneath option (6.2 aDoT in 2021) in Buffalo's offense. The Bills also selected Khalil Shakir in the fifth round, and he is a candidate to throw his hat in the ring for slot reps, too. Crowder is an OK option in full-point PPR formats at the end of drafts (195.3 ADP), but Buffalo's slot gig might be a matchup-based rotation.

Notable Non-Qualifier (Under 50 Targets)

JuJu Smith-Schuster (WR - KC): 82.0 ADP/WR34, 70/WR30, 6.3 aDoT

Smith-Schuster's ECR had slipped a bit since mid-May when he was highlighted as a wide receiver to avoid. Unfortunately, Smith-Schuster has been dreadful in recent years, and he's still overrated in ADP and ECR.

CTAs


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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.

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