Skip to main content

QB Advanced Stats Analysis: Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, Lamar Jackson (2022 Fantasy Football)

QB Advanced Stats Analysis: Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, Lamar Jackson (2022 Fantasy Football)

There can be a massive difference between real-life and fantasy value at quarterback. Nevertheless, knowing which quarterbacks grade well in advanced metrics can help identify potential breakouts, signal-callers who could lose their job and validate the legitimacy of elite or up-and-coming quarterbacks. The following tables show the leaders in advanced stats such as IQR from Sports Info Solutions (SIS), Total QBR from ESPN and Football Outsiders and Pro Football Focus’s overall offense grade.

IQR (Sports Info Solutions)

IQR is SIS's proprietary quarterback statistic styled in the traditional Passer Rating formula but accounting for things such as dropped passes, dropped interceptions and other uncontrollable factors.

It's always ideal when a list like this passes the intuitive sniff test, including the game's elite passers. The back-to-back NFL MVP, Aaron Rodgers, is atop last year's list among quarterbacks who attempted at least 200 passes. Tom Brady is still at the top of his game, and some of the league's ascending youngsters, such as Joe Burrow and Justin Herbert, were in the top five.

Jimmy Garoppolo, Carson Wentz and Jared Goff are the quarterbacks who seem out of place. Still, that could be good news for a talented wideout like Terry McLaurin on Wentz's new team in Washington or the revamped pass-catching corps in Detroit.

Some noteworthy quarterbacks missed the list. For instance, Jalen Hurts (94.1 IQR) narrowly missed the list, ranking 16th. Lamar Jackson (93.7) was tied for 17th  with Mac Jones and Teddy Bridgewater. And out of 33 qualified QBs, Trevor Lawrence (77.1) was 31st, Justin Fields (74.3) was 32nd and Zach Wilson (72.5) was 33rd.

Total QBR (ESPN and Football Outsiders)

Total QBR is a modified version of ESPN's original QBR statistic. The revised version uses game charting, accounting for drops and throwaways. Total QBR also weighs down and distance, time left in the game and other factors that impact the leverage of the situation. Thus, clutch plays are more valuable than a completed pass in a blowout. Further, a 30-yard pass that traveled 30 yards in the air is graded more favorably than a swing pass behind the line of scrimmage that the pass-catcher did all the work for gaining yards on. Finally, Total QBR also rolls rushing value into the metric, differentiating between scrambles and planned runs, per Football Outsiders.

Adding the rushing component helped Josh Allen while hurting Burrow, relative to SIS's IQR. Patrick Mahomes was also ranked higher on this list, and Wentz and Garoppolo are surprising carryovers. Now, Ryan Tannehill is the surprising name who pops out on the table. Tannehill's favorable grading in Total QBR could bode well for his new pass-catchers, Robert Woods and Treylon Burks. It also suggests he wasn't merely a product of A.J. Brown's elite after-the-catch ability.

Again, Jackson and Hurts weren't on this list, ranking 17th and 20th out of 34 quarterbacks with at least 200 attempts. Since this metric includes a rushing component, that's pretty damning of Jackson's and Hurts' 2021 output. And, again, none of last year's rookie quarterbacks made the top 15 for Total QBR in 2021. Unsurprisingly, Jones was the highest-ranked rookie, checking in 16th in Total QBR. All of the other rookie passers were outside the top 25.

Pro Football Focus Offense Grade (PFF)

The Pro Football Focus offense grade includes rushing value and isn't the same as their passing grade. In addition, I included the postseason contests in the query. Almost all the names on the table were on the previous two leaderboards.

However, Jones and Hurts moved up from near misses to top-15 quarterbacks in this advanced metric, and Jacoby Brissett shockingly cracked the top 15. The veteran backup will start games for the Browns if Deshaun Watson is suspended. Gamers shouldn't expect much from Brissett, but his competency could keep the offense and fantasy options, such as Nick Chubb, Kareem Hunt and Amari Cooper, afloat. In another funny twist, Brissett graded better than Tua Tagovailoa. Miami's lefty third-year quarterback was tied for 23rd with Tyler Huntley, directly behind Jackson in 22nd. Finally, the rookie quarterbacks other than Jones were graded outside the top 25 of 35 quarterbacks with at least 200 dropbacks.

Notable Non-Qualifier

Jameis Winston (QB - NO): 177.8 ADP, QB22

Sadly, Winston suffered a season-ending knee injury in New Orleans' seventh game. As a result, he didn't hit the benchmarks to qualify for the IQR, Total QBR or PFF offensive grade leaderboards. Winston was sharp in his limited time on the field, though. His ranks in the parentheses on the table reflect where he would have ranked among qualified quarterbacks. It's dangerous extrapolating stats, but Winston deserves credit for playing well in an offense that lacked high-end talent. The Saints' offense might be intriguing if Winston picks up where he left off.

Closing Thoughts

The top quarterbacks in average draft position (ADP) were well represented on the leaderboards above. There was one exception, though. Lamar Jackson is QB4 in ADP, ranking 49th overall. Obviously, the electrifying quarterback isn't in any danger of losing his starting job. However, it's easy to understand some of the team's offseason transactions that suggest pivoting back to a more run-heavy attack in 2022.

Jackson's touchdown, interception and sack rates have all gone in the wrong direction since his 2019 NFL MVP campaign. In addition, according to Pro-Football-Reference, out of 33 qualified quarterbacks, Jackson was 20th in Adjusted Net Yards per Pass Attempt (5.78 ANY/A). Perhaps, swinging the pendulum back to a more run-heavy approach will help Jackson's efficiency. Still, a top-50 pick seems steep for Jackson. Sure, his rushing ability elevates his floor and ceiling. However, other dual-threat quarterbacks are coming off more impressive passing campaigns. Kyler Murray is a more attractive option with arguably a higher ceiling, and Hurts is an enticing option at a more affordable ADP.

The 2021 rookie quarterback class came in with a roar and left with a whimper. There's a decent chance some or all of them improve in their sophomore campaigns. Still, the second-year quarterback generating the most buzz is Trey Lance, after starting only two games in 2021. Lance is the QB15 and an excellent gamble for gamers who wait to select a quarterback in fantasy football drafts.

Jones was in the best situation and hit the ground running, relatively speaking. His competence is ideal for New England's skill players. Fields' rushing ability is interesting, Wilson's supporting cast is fascinating, Lawrence will benefit from the absence of Urban Meyer and Davis Mills showcased enough to provide optimism for Houston's alpha wideout Brandin Cooks. Nonetheless, Fields is the only one with a compelling case to draft as a QB2 since mobile quarterbacks can outperform shortcomings as passers. The others could quickly force themselves into the streamer conversation and stick on rosters if the lightbulb turns on.


Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | SoundCloud | iHeartRadio

If you want to dive deeper into fantasy football, be sure to check out our award-winning slate of Fantasy Football Tools as you navigate your season. From our Start/Sit Assistant - which provides your optimal lineup, based on accurate consensus projections - to our Waiver Wire Assistant - that allows you to quickly see which available players will improve your team and by how much - we've got you covered this fantasy football season.

Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.

More Articles

Dynasty Fantasy Football Draft Rankings & Tiers (2024)

Dynasty Fantasy Football Draft Rankings & Tiers (2024)

fp-headshot by FantasyPros Staff | 2 min read
Fantasy Football Draft Advice: Rashee Rice, Kendre Miller, Hayden Hurst (2024)

Fantasy Football Draft Advice: Rashee Rice, Kendre Miller, Hayden Hurst (2024)

fp-headshot by FantasyPros Staff | 2 min read
Dynasty Trade Advice: Javonte Williams, Davante Adams, Justin Herbert, Patrick Mahomes

Dynasty Trade Advice: Javonte Williams, Davante Adams, Justin Herbert, Patrick Mahomes

fp-headshot by FantasyPros Staff | 2 min read
How to Value Players on New Teams: RB (2024 Fantasy Football)

How to Value Players on New Teams: RB (2024 Fantasy Football)

fp-headshot by Tom Strachan | 4 min read

About Author


Current Article

1 min read

Dynasty Fantasy Football Draft Rankings & Tiers (2024)

Next Up - Dynasty Fantasy Football Draft Rankings & Tiers (2024)

Next Article