Week 5 NFL DFS Primer: Colts at Broncos Thursday Night Showdown Slate (2022)

The Broncos are hosting the Colts for the Week 5 Thursday Night Football Game. The season hasn’t gotten off on the right foot for either team. Further, both teams are navigating injuries on a short week. The game’s spread is close, with a low total. So, it should be a competitive game. As a result, the betting expectations and injuries are considered in the forthcoming suggested players and lineup construction thoughts.

Check out our top player prop bet picks for Thursday Night Football

Game: Indianapolis Colts at Denver Broncos

Spread: DEN -3.0 Points

Over/Under: 43.0 Points

Colts Analysis: The Matt Ryan era hasn't lived up to expectations. However, there might be more on his plate this week. Stud running back Jonathan Taylor is out. So, Ryan will likely have to shoulder a larger part of the load.

Fortunately, he won't have to evade stud pass-rusher, Randy Gregory. The talented pass-rusher is on Injured Reserve (IR). Further, Ryan has averaged 281.3 passing yards per game. Thus, he has fantasy utility.

The veteran's No. 1 wideout is Michael Pittman. According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), Pittman has led the Colts in routes (133), targets (28), receptions (20) and receiving yards (224) in three healthy contests. Moreover, his 28 targets have been twice as many as the second-highest total in those games. So, Pittman is an excellent selection as a target hog.

Rookie Alec Pierce has also played in three games this year. Sadly, he has a few warts on his profile. First, Pierce has played only 47% of the team's offensive snaps. Second, the 73 routes he's run are only the fourth-most on the team in his three healthy games. The rookie has rotated with ancillary receivers and tight ends while Parris Campbell has inexplicably run 110 routes and regularly been on the field.

Nonetheless, the speedy wideout has played his role as a field-stretcher quite well. According to PFF, Pierce has had a 14.6-yard Average Depth of Target (aDOT), 1.93 Y/RR and secured three contested catches on five chances. As a result, Pierce has the potential to pay off on this slate on just a few targets. Finally, he might be the biggest beneficiary of Gregory's absence for the Broncos, as Ryan should have more time to unload deep passes to Pierce.

Indy's tight end rotation is maddening, featuring Mo Alie-Cox, Kylen Granson and Jelani Woods. Alie-Cox and Woods have each scored two touchdowns, and Granson hasn't splashed paydirt. Still, Granson's run only 12 fewer routes than Alie-Cox in the three games Indy's receiving corps has been at full strength. In addition, Granson has had a stellar 20.7% target per route run rate in those three games. So, while others chase Alie-Cox's and Woods's touchdowns, Granson is an appealing swerve.

Broncos Analysis: Unfortunately, Javonte Williams is out for the rest of the year with a severe knee injury. He was Denver's most productive running back. Melvin Gordon is the best bet to soak up the bulk of Denver's backfield work, but he's been a fumbling machine this season. So, Mike Boone rotated in last week, and the Broncos signed Latavius Murray off the Saints' practice squad.

Again, Gordon should be the lead runner.

Still, his leash might be short, and the matchup is gross. According to Football Outsiders, the Colts are second in rush defense Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). So, fading Denver's backfield is appealing.

Instead, gamers should lean into Denver's passing attack in a more favorable matchup. First, the Colts are 27th in pass defense DVOA. Second, PFF has graded the Colts 29th in pressure and 27th in coverage. Thus, Indy's pass defense is lousy.

Therefore, this might be a get-right spot for Russell Wilson. He hasn't been sharp in his first year with the Broncos, but Wilson has salvaged fantasy value in two games. First, he passed for 340 yards and a touchdown in Week 1. Then, he passed for 237 yards and two touchdowns while adding 29 rushing yards and a touchdown in Week 4. So, Wilson can deliver this week, even if it's more of the same.

Courtland Sutton is easily Denver's most exciting pass-catching option. He leads the Broncos in routes (147), targets (35), receptions (24) and receiving yards (343). The downfield wideout has also been an air-yard monster. According to Sports Info Solutions (SIS), Sutton has had the second-most Intended Air Yards (511) this season.

Jerry Jeudy has comfortably been Denver's second-best pass-catching option. However, he's not a must-use option. Instead, spinning down to Kendall Hinton is interesting. He's tied for the fourth-most routes (69) for the Broncos, despite not playing in Week 1. Hinton has run at least 21 routes in three subsequent games. He's also improved his yardage output every game, hauling in a 20-yard reception in Week 2, a 27-yard reception in Week 3 and catching two of three targets for 39 yards in Week 4.

Finally, Montrell Washington is a DraftKings-specific contrarian pick. He had one reception for four yards on only three routes in Week 4. In addition, the rookie's only other offensive contribution was a 19-yard rush in Week 2. Still, he's Denver's kick and punt returner. So, Washington has long-shot potential to score a return touchdown. Yet, he also supplements that with potential gadget usage on offense.

Final Thoughts: It's all about the flawed passing attacks in this showdown slate. Wilson, Sutton, Pittman and Ryan all have legitimate cases for the Captain/MVP spot. Gamers who use Sutton or Pittman in the Captain/MVP spot should use their corresponding quarterback in a flex spot.

However, while those four are the best options for the Captain/MVP spot, Pierce's big-play ability is ground for consideration for that spot in tournaments. So finally, three and three or four and two lineups are the most appealing on this slate at DK.

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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.