Sadly, the Bengals received bad news about Ja’Marr Chase‘s hip. He’s sidelined for a few weeks. Still, they’re favored on the road against the reeling Browns. Cinci’s offense was highly consolidated with Chase. So, his absence could open up a few more opportunities for ancillary selections. Meanwhile, Jacoby Brissett makes it difficult to get excited about Cleveland’s offense. Yet, a few players are worth a look on this showdown slate.
Game: Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns
Spread: CIN -3.0 Points
Over/Under: 45.0 Points
Sadly, the Bengals received bad news about Ja’Marr Chase‘s hip. He’s sidelined for a few weeks. Still, they’re favored on the road against the reeling Browns. Cinci’s offense was highly consolidated with Chase. So, his absence could open up a few more opportunities for ancillary selections. Meanwhile, Jacoby Brissett makes it difficult to get excited about Cleveland’s offense. Yet, a few players are worth a look on this showdown slate.
Game: Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns
Spread: CIN -3.0 Points
Over/Under: 45.0 Points
Bengals Analysis: The Bengals made a wise decision a few weeks ago to switch to running shotgun primarily on offense, and the offense has exploded since. According to Football Outsiders, Cincinnati is 30th in yards per play (3.8) in non-shotgun formations and seventh in yards per play (6.2) when in shotgun. As a result, Burrow has exploded for 781 yards, six touchdowns and zero interceptions in the past two weeks.
The Bengals have also cut it loose as a pass-first team. Per numberFire, since Week 6, they've attempted 79 passes and only 28 rushes with non-quarterbacks. The Browns are unlikely to deter Cinci from airing it out. According to Football Outsiders, the Browns are 28th in pass defense Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). Thus, Burrow is an excellent choice.
Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd are his top pass catchers by a wide margin without Chase. Higgins has had at least five receptions in five of his last six games, exceeding 70 yards and scoring a touchdown twice. The third-year receiver had a bagel while attempting to play through an ankle injury in Week 5 and was inefficient, with six receptions for 47 scoreless yards the following week. Otherwise, he's been a high-level performer.
The matchup is good for Higgins, too. According to Football Outsiders, the Browns have allowed the 10th-most receiving yards per game (75.1) to No. 1 wide receivers. Boyd also has a stellar matchup. Cleveland has coughed up the sixth-most receiving yards (61.8) to No. 2 wideouts.
Boyd has also come on strong lately. According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), Boyd has 14 receptions for 221 yards, 2.73 Yards per Route Run (Y/RR) and one touchdown on 15 targets. The veteran slot also ran the third-most routes (81), one behind Higgins (82) and four behind Chase (86).
The routes are important to note because the Bengals will need another receiver for their three-receiver formations. Mike Thomas is the next man up. He's run 84 routes in seven games, the fourth-most routes for a receiver on the Bengals. Thomas has only two receptions for 38 yards, but the boost in playing time he's likely to receive puts him on the punt radar.
However, Hayden Hurst can benefit, too. Hurst is third on the Bengals in targets (39), tied for third in receptions (29) and fourth in receiving yards (226). He's also hauled in two touchdowns. The 29-year-old tight end has at least three receptions in four straight games, bested 45 receiving yards twice and caught a touchdown twice in the last four weeks.
Joe Mixon's efficiency has been wretched this year. The 26-year-old running back averages a grotesque 3.3 yards per carry. However, his workload is mouthwatering. Mixon touches the ball over 20 times per game. He averages over 80 scrimmage yards and 3.9 receptions per game. Mixon has also splashed paydirt three times.
In recent weeks, the switch to a more pass-heavy approach might seem detrimental to Mixon's value. However, that's not necessarily the case. He's run 176 routes to only 77 for Samaje Perine this season. So, as long as he maintains a meaningful role in the passing attack, work as a receiver is more valuable than as a ball carrier.
Browns Analysis: Nick Chubb is Cleveland's best offensive weapon. He leads the NFL in rushing yards per game (105.7) and touchdown rushes (eight) before including Sunday's contests. The stud back can overcome a poor matchup.
Sadly, it is a challenging matchup for him. The Bengals are 10th in rush defense DVOA. He's also at risk of ceding time to Kareem Hunt when the Browns are in a negative game script, something they'll probably be in as an underdog. Since Week 5, Hunt has run 52 routes versus 45 for Chubb. The risks are enough to prevent Chubb from being a must-use option. Still, Chubb is a viable fantasy selection.
Amari Cooper is arguably Cleveland's most attractive DFS pick when factoring in his salary and the likely negative game script. I tip my cap to Dalton Del Don for pointing out Cooper's absurd home and road splits on the Yahoo! Fantasy podcast. Per Pro-Football-Reference, Cooper averages just 4.4 receptions and 54.8 receiving yards per game with 17 touchdowns in 58 road games. However, he averages 5.2 receptions with 75.8 receiving yards per game with 33 touchdowns in 57 home contests. That trend has continued this year, with Cooper averaging 6.8 receptions and 80.5 receiving yards at home, scoring all four of his touchdowns as a Brown in Cleveland.
The matchup is stellar for Cooper as well. The Bengals allow the 12th-most receiving yards per game (71.3) to No. 1 wide receivers. So, there's plenty to like about Cooper for this showdown slate.
Harrison Bryant is the other enticing option from the Browns in the absence of David Njoku. Bryant is the top healthy tight end for the Browns, and Njoku leaves behind 4.9 receptions and 59.7 receiving yards per game. Bryant is unlikely to duplicate Njoku's production, but the third-year tight end is a good bet to build on his 2022 averages of 2.0 receptions and 16.3 receiving yards per game. Finally, Cincinnati is a favorable matchup, permitting the ninth-most receiving yards per game (58.9) to tight ends.
Final Thoughts: Burrow is my preferred captain/MVP. However, Higgins and Boyd are rock-solid picks to mix in for that spot. Finally, I suggest building unbalanced lineups with no more than two Browns on DK and one on FD.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
