The struggling Buccaneers are hosting the Ravens. The game is projected to be close, as the Bucs are just one-point favorites, and the Ravens were favored earlier in the week. Unfortunately, there are injuries to sort through and monitor. Still, the following players and lineup construction advice consider the injuries and potential fallout.
Game: Baltimore Ravens at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Ravens Analysis: Sadly, Baltimore's offense has been rather putrid lately. They've scored 20, 19, 20 and 23 points in their last four games. In addition, they've had under 300 total yards on offense in two of the last four contests. Still, it's a consolidated offense.
So, it's easy to pinpoint their useful DFS options. Lamar Jackson spearheads the offense. Unfortunately, he hasn't been electrifying lately. Jackson has passed for under 220 yards in five consecutive games, falling short of 175 in three of his last four and passing for one touchdown or less in the previous four.
However, he's still a DFS asset on this showdown slate because of his integral role in Baltimore's rushing attack. He's rushed for at least 58 yards in every game except in Week 1. Jackson has also exceeded 70 rushing yards in four contests, scoring touchdowns on the ground twice this year, albeit failing to reach paydirt as a runner in four straight. Still, Jackson's modest production and lack of touchdowns lately make him a candidate to fade as a chalk selection.
Mark Andrews is the best pass-catching option if he plays. However, he hasn't practiced this week and is listed as questionable.
The Ravens managed his practice reps last week before he had an 88% snap share in Week 7. Thus, the organization might be taking it easy on him with the quick turnaround for a Thursday contest. So, if he suits up, I have no reservations about Andrews' playing time and usage outlook.
Andrews has been a one-man wrecking crew in Baltimore's passing attack. According to Sports Info Solutions (SIS), Andrews has the fifth-highest Target Share (31.6%). Further, per Pro Football Focus (PFF), out of 28 tight ends targeted at least 20 times in 2022, Andrews is third in Yards per Route Run (2.12 Y/RR) and second in receptions (39), receiving yards (455) and touchdowns (five). So, he's an excellent selection.
Devin Duvernay is the second-most attractive pass-catching option for the Ravens, salary and matchup considered. Duvernay's cheaper than Rashod Bateman, and the Bucs are a nightmare matchup for No. 1 wideouts and a dreamy one for No. 2 wide receivers. According to Football Outsiders, Tampa Bay has allowed the fewest yards per game (50.8) to No. 1 wide receivers but the third-most (71.0) to No. 2 wideouts.
Duvernay hasn't been a target vacuum, but he's had at least 40 scrimmage yards or scored a touchdown six times in seven games. Thus, the speedy wideout has made more with less and is a viable option at a mid-tier salary.
Gus Edwards is another intriguing part of Baltimore's offense. He began the year on Injured Reserve (IR) and made his presence known with authority last week in his season debut. Gus the Bus rumbled for 66 yards and two touchdowns on 16 attempts. This week, Edwards was a popular season-long waiver-wire suggestion, and pundits cautioned about his snap share (36%). However, the Ravens didn't waste empty snaps on him. Instead, Edwards had 16 rushes and one target on 23 offensive snaps. Baltimore wisely fed Edwards the ball when he was on the field. So, the snap-share concerns might be overblown.
The matchup is potentially good. Tampa Bay's run defense has been stout or leaky. There hasn't been an in-between. They've held three opponents to fewer than 80 rushing yards and coughed up more than 150 in three of their last four contests, including allowing 173 to the Panthers last week. So, the Ravens will likely feed Edwards a steady diet of rush attempts as long as it's a one-score game. According to numberFire, since Week 5, the Ravens have attempted 79 passes in neutral game scripts and run the ball 65 times with non-quarterbacks, saying nothing of Jackson's 27 attempts. So, they've been leaning into the run during neutral game scripts.
Buccaneers Analysis: The Bucs are mired in a funk, and head coach Todd Bowles sounds like he's ready to shake things up.
It's safe to say Tom Brady's role isn't in peril. The same is true for reliable slot wideout Chris Godwin. Mike Evans isn't in danger of losing playing, either. However, Evans hurt his ankle late in last week's game and was limited in practice this week. Further, he has a more challenging matchup than Godwin. As a result, gamers should consider fading Evans.
Brady and Godwin are the most exciting options in Tampa Bay's pass-happy offense. Since Week 5, the Bucs have attempted 96 passes and only five runs by non-quarterbacks in neutral game scripts. In addition, Leonard Fournette has been inefficient in neutral game scripts lately, rushing for only 126 yards on 38 attempts. Further, he hasn't had much juice. According to PFF, Fournette has had only eight missed-tackles-forced (MTF) and 10 rushes of 10-plus yards on 103 attempts.
So, maybe Bowles will insert some life into the backfield, turning to rookie Rachaad White more frequently. The rookie has an eye-catching athletic profile and the pass-catching chops to produce in DFS in Tampa Bay's pass-happy offense. Moreover, White has a dreamy matchup for his excellent receiving skills. The Ravens have yielded the sixth-most receiving yards per game (44.1) to running backs this year.
Still, again, Brady and Godwin are the crown jewels of Tampa Bay's offense. Brady averages 277.4 passing yards per game and exceeded 350 in back-to-back games in Week 4 and Week 5. The matchup is decent for Brady, too. According to Pro-Football-Reference, the Ravens have allowed the seventh-most passing yards per game (261.3) and are tied for the ninth-most touchdown passes (11) allowed this season.
Godwin is likely to be the apple of Brady's eye in a mouthwatering matchup. According to PFF, out of 32 cornerbacks and safeties with at least 70 coverage snaps in the slot this season, Baltimore's slot cornerback Damarion Williams is tied for the 10th-most receptions (18), eighth-most receiving yards (209), most touchdowns (three) and highest Quarterback Rating (144.1) allowed to opponents in slot coverage. As a result, Godwin is ranked eighth on PFF's wide receivers versus cornerbacks matchup chart for Week 8.
Breshad Perriman and Jaelon Darden are decent punts. Russell Gage is out, and Julio Jones is listed as questionable. Perriman and Darden are more intriguing if Jones is out. Still, it seems unlikely the Bucs will entirely cut Jones loose as he plays through a knee injury.
Since Week 6, Perriman has run nine routes, and Darden has run only three. According to PFF, Perriman had an 18.0-yard average depth of target (aDOT) on his only target in that two-game stretch. Meanwhile, Darden had a reception for one yard on his only target. Finally, Darden is the team's punt returner, giving him a path to a return touchdown. Although, he's never returned a punt for a touchdown in his NFL career.
Final Thoughts: Godwin is my favorite captain/MVP, followed by Brady and Jackson. Since the Ravens are a concentrated offense, I prefer to use more Bucs than Ravens. An unbalanced lineup with only one or two Ravens is my favorite lineup construction.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
