DFS degenerates, welcome to the week 11 slate of opportunity! This slate is intricate, with a couple of potential shoot-out games looming.
This weekly series aims to provide a look into the value targets at their current salary that are in positions to outperform their cost.
Let’s dive right in.
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Quarterbacks
DraftKings
Joe Burrow (QB – CIN) $6,800 vs. PIT
Many may recall that the Bengals and Steelers have already squared off once this season. In that meeting, the Steelers eeked out a narrow victory, at least partially due to Joe Burrow tossing four interceptions. I’ll take “things that won’t repeat for $400, Alex.” Do not expect the same outcome in this game.
Coming out of their bye, Joe Burrow is currently the QB4 in points-per-game average. Meanwhile, the Steelers’ defense is surrendering the eighth-most fantasy points to the quarterback position. They allow 1.9 passing touchdowns and 275.6 passing yards per game this season. During that same span, Burrow is averaging 281.6 passing yards and two touchdowns per game.
If the Steelers can accomplish anything on the offensive side of the ball, expect Burrow to come back swinging and hang some points on the board. Burrow could easily finish inside the top-five quarterbacks this week and maintains both a high floor and a high ceiling for DFS purposes.
FanDuel
Dak Prescott (QB – DAL) $7,500 vs. MIN
In three games back from injury, Prescott has been the QB18, QB4, and QB7, respectively. In two of those three games, he has thrown for multiple touchdown passes and added a total of 40 rushing yards. While he does not run as often as he once did, he still has the mobility factor to do so both in pressure situations and near the goal line.
The Vikings are allowing 281.9 passing yards and 1.3 touchdowns per game. On the season, they have allowed the 11th-most fantasy points to quarterbacks. Per PFF, since Week 5, they have ranked 30th in explosive pass rate.
This game has shoot-out potential scribbled all over it, and both quarterbacks are fine plays in tournaments this week. Prescott comes in $100 cheaper than Kirk Cousins despite Cousins having the more difficult matchup. This week, Prescott has top-five quarterback potential again and is a strong DFS play.
Running Backs
DraftKings
David Montgomery (RB – CHI) $6,100 vs. ATL
David Montgomery feels like an immediate GPP option this week. He has not posted flashy rushing numbers this season. In nine games played, he has hit 100 rushing yards once and only has two rushing scores. He has only surpassed double-digit DK points in two contests all season and has been outrushed by both his quarterback and his direct backup more than just a couple of times. These are all reasons folks will be passing him over for their lineups, and they are all fair points.
However, there has been a development that could prove to be the defining factor in his return to being a viable lineup option. Khalil Herbert was placed on injured reserve this week, sidelining him for at least four weeks. Trestan Ebner is not as explosive between the tackles as Herbert and will not be the same level threat to touches as Herbert was. Despite the diminished production, the volume has been present for Monty. He has seen double-digit carries in seven of nine games this season, one of which he left early.
The Falcons are a plus matchup, allowing the ninth-most fantasy points to running backs. The Bears are one of the most run-heavy offenses in football, and facing a defense that can, and should be, run against is a good spot for a back that is averaging 14.5 opportunities a game. I think Monty is a good bet for 15-17 carries and a score this week. He should be in lineups as an ROI opportunity in a beatable matchup.
FanDuel
Brian Robinson Jr. (RB – WAS) $6,600 vs. HOU
Let me begin by mentioning that Brian Robinson and Antonio Gibson have the same salary this week. And it is worth noting that FanDuel utilizes 0.5 PPR scoring. On the surface, this would make Gibson the lineup target, as he is the preferred back for passing volume. Truthfully, both are value plays this week, and I will have shares of both in multi-lineup contests. But I wanted to highlight Robinson for a couple of reasons.
First, the rushing volume. Robinson made his debut in Week 5 and since then has only logged fewer than double-digit carries twice. As he has continued to heal from his wounds, the Commanders have picked and chosen when to ramp up his volume. Twice this season, he has seen 20-plus carries. While the efficiency has not been there, the steady volume has been. This is a game in which the volume could certainly lead to an increase in efficiency.
Secondly is the matchup. The Texans are allowing a league-leading 156.3 rushing yards per contest. They’re also surrendering 1.4 rushing touchdowns per game and the most fantasy points to the position.
And finally is the roster percentage. Due to his role as a pass catcher, Gibson will be rostered at a much higher percentage.
I’ve mentioned this on Twitter. I believe this will be Robinson’s first career 100-yard rushing game and that he scores. He should be sprinkled into some lineups for this slate.
Wide Receivers
DraftKings
Tyler Boyd (WR – CIN) $6,500 vs. PIT
Not only does Tyler Boyd present a solid stacking option with Joe Burrow this week, but he is also comparatively bargain-priced against his fellow wide receiver Tee Higgins ($7100). The immediate $600 savings is only sweetened by the additional .5 fantasy points per game average that he represents. Over his last four games, Boyd is averaging 5.5 targets and 75.7 receiving yards per contest and has scored twice.
Boyd will spend most of his time matched up against Arthur Maulet who is allowing a 78.9% catch rate and 16.7 yards per reception in his coverage. Higgins should draw the stiffer coverage leaving Boyd a bit more wiggle room to exploit. Boyd has finished with double-digit DK points in five of nine contests this season and has four touchdowns on the season.
FanDuel
Darius Slayton (WR – NYG) $6,300 vs. DET
Want to sneak in some production at the bottom of your lineup for value pricing and a low roster percentage? Of course, you do. Darius Slayton saunters in from stage left. Since week five, Slayton is maintaining just over 20% target share. In that span, he has finished as a WR2 three times. Let’s be honest. The pass-catcher tree is barren in New York, leaving Slayton for anything downfield and Saquon Barkley for the stuff closer to the line of scrimmage. With Wan’Dale Robinson questionable to play, expect Daniel Jones to look Slayton’s way early and often again.
The Lions are a scrappy bunch, but that has not prevented them from allowing the seventh-most fantasy points to receivers. On average, they’re allowing 179.2 receiving yards and .9 receiving touchdowns per contest.
The Lions have managed to stay competitive in games this season, so expect Danny Dimes and company to have a fight on their hands, making Slayton a good target for GPP contests.
Tight Ends
DraftKings
Greg Dulcich (TE – DEN) $3,800 vs. LV
Okay, let’s start off with some honesty. Tight ends are kind of gross this week. Two of the top four options this week are on injured reserve. After not practicing all week, Mark Andrews is truly questionable to play. Meaning that three of the top four salary players are not suiting up. So keep it simple. Look for volume first, scoring potential, and matchup.
Rookie Greg Dulcich is a low-cost option that is currently in a situation to vastly outperform his salary. Since Week 6, we have seen flashes from the big man, who has clearly gained the trust of struggling Russell Wilson. Jerry Jeudy and K.J. Hamler have already been ruled out for this matchup. The target pecking order is Courtland Sutton, Dulcich, then some dudes most people don’t know.
The Raiders have strict rules about playing adequate defense. They abstain. Thus far, they’re allowing the fifth-most fantasy points to tight ends. For a slate that will be missing a lot of reliable scoring from the position, punting an upside play like Dulcich could pay off handsomely.
FanDuel
Pat Freiermuth (TE – PIT) $5,400 vs. CIN
See the above section for how gross this slate is for the tight end position. This slate has pay-up options, but most are in bad matchups or point-chasing based on recency bias. As mentioned above, look for volume, role in the offense, and matchup.
Freiermuth has seen a slight bump in slot usage since Chase Claypool was traded to Chicago. He was already averaging a serviceable amount of targets per game. The matchup is divisional, so it will be hard-fought from start to finish. Freiermuth has had three games this season hit 75 yards or more while only logging one touchdown. That positive regression is close and with the slight bump in target share, expect it to happen sooner as opposed to later.
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John Hesterman is a featured writer and Expert Consensus Ranker at FantasyPros. He also writes for DynastyLeagueFootball.com. For more from John, check out his archive and follow him on Twitter @John_Hesterman.
