The NFL’s Divisional Round begins on Saturday at 4:30 pm ET when the Jaguars face the Chiefs in Kansas City. The second game on Saturday’s two-game slate at DraftKings and FanDuel features the Giants at the Eagles, beginning at 8:15 pm ET. Both games have more than a touchdown spread. However, the opening contest’s over/under of north of 50 is more inviting, and that contest is more well-represented in this piece.
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Divisional Round Matchups
Game: Jacksonville at Kansas City Chiefs
Spread: KC -8.5 Points
Over/Under: 52.5 Points
Jaguars Analysis: The Jaguars lost to the Chiefs 27-17 in Week 10. They'll return to Kansas City for a rematch this week, and the game's spread suggests oddsmakers and bettors expect a similar outcome. However, the Jags had their bye after losing to the Chiefs and have been hot since. They've won seven of eight games since their bye, including storming back from a 27-0 deficit against the Chargers last week.
Trevor Lawrence threw four interceptions last week after throwing only four in the 10 previous games. It was an uncharacteristically turnover-laden game for Lawrence. Nevertheless, the sophomore quarterback had a breakout campaign and offset his four picks in the Wild Card Round by throwing for 288 yards and four touchdowns.
Lawrence completed 72.5% of his passes for 259 yards and two touchdowns and added 26 yards on the ground against the Chiefs in the first matchup. So, he wasn't overwhelmed by the Chiefs the first time. But that shouldn't be surprising. Kansas City's pass defense is below average. According to Football Outsiders, the Chiefs are 21st in pass defense DVOA since Week 13. As a result, Lawrence is an attractive option at quarterback this week, with a modest salary compared to the two highest-salaried signal callers.
Lawrence has spread his passes to the trio of Christian Kirk, Zay Jones and Evan Engram. On Lawrence's 147 passes in his last four meaningful games of the regular season (Week 14 through Week 16 and in Week 18), he targeted Engram 37 times, Kirk 31 times and Jones 30 times. However, per numberFire, you can flip the order on its head for Air Yards, with Jones leading (324 Air Yards), then Kirk (268) and Engram (177). The trio dominated targets in the Wild Card Round. Engram had 11, Jones had 13 and Kirk had 14 targets. They each scored a touchdown against the Chargers and cleared 70 receiving yards.
Sadly, Kirk has the least favorable matchup. According to The 33rd Team and data from Sports Info Solutions (SIS), Kansas City's allowed the 12th-fewest DK and the 11th-fewest FD points per game to slot wideouts since Week 13. Nonetheless, Kirk had the most success of the trio against the Chiefs in Week 10, reeling in nine receptions for 105 yards and two touchdowns.
Jones had eight receptions for 68 scoreless yards on 10 targets in the first game against the Chiefs. However, he has a slightly less challenging matchup on the perimeter. Kansas City's allowed the 13th-most DK and the 12th-most FD points per game to perimeter wideout since Week 13.
Engram was the least effective of the bunch against the Chiefs, catching only three passes for 14 scoreless yards. He was the best of the group last week and has the softest matchup for the three this week, too. Tight ends have amassed the eighth-most DK and the sixth-most FD points per game against the Chiefs since Week 13. Engram's success, matchup and bargain salary make him the most exciting option out of Jacksonville's pass-catchers. Still, Kirk and Jones are outstanding options.
Travis Etienne hasn't been consistent this season. In addition, his matchup is merely good this week. Still, the Chiefs are 17th in rush defense DVOA since Week 13 and have allowed the sixth-most receptions and the seventh-most receptions per game to running backs during that timeframe. The speedy running back's season-high for receptions in a game was three, a mark he hit eight times, including against the Chiefs earlier this year. Thus, Etienne's not a target hog, but he's averaged 2.1 receptions per game, 18.6 receiving yards per game and 9.0 yards per reception.
Fortunately, while Etienne hasn't been heavily involved in the air, he's dominated the ground work. According to numberFire, Etienne had 40 of the team's 50 rushes by non-quarterbacks in neutral game scripts in Week 14 through Week 16 and Week 18. He also toted the rock 20 times for 109 yards against the Chargers last week. Therefore, if the Jaguars keep it close or spring the upset, Etienne could see a hefty workload as a runner. He's projected as the RB2 on Saturday's main slate.
Chiefs Analysis: Patrick Mahomes should secure his second NFL MVP award after leading the NFL in passing yards per game (308.8) and touchdown passes (41). He shredded the Jags for 331 passing yards, four touchdowns and one interception earlier this year, adding 39 rushing yards for good measure. Additionally, Mahomes has been nothing short of phenomenal in the postseason in his career, averaging 307.4 passing yards and 29.4 rushing yards per game while tossing 28 touchdowns and rushing for five scores in 11 games. Mahomes is the QB1 on this slate and is projected to score the most fantasy points among all players.
The top option in Kansas City's passing attack is Travis Kelce. It's not close, either. The stud tight end led the Chiefs in targets (152), receptions per game (6.5), receiving yards per game (78.7) and touchdown receptions (12). The next closest marks in the respective categories were 101, 4.9, 58.3 and nine. So, again, Kelce was the top dog for the Chiefs by a wide margin.
The matchup is also tasty. The Jags have coughed up the fifth-most DK and FD points per game to tight ends since Week 13. As a result, Kelce's arguably the best selection on the slate and the TE1.
The passing-game hierarchy behind Kelce is a cluster. Per Pro Football Focus (PFF), in Kansas City's previous four games, JuJu Smith-Schuster ran the second-most routes (123), topping wideouts in that category. However, he had 35 receiving yards or fewer in the last three games and hadn't scored a touchdown since Week 14. Thus, gamers shouldn't get FOMO for a big game from Smith-Schuster and can fade him for Kansas City's more affordable pass-catchers.
Kadarius Toney is a fun choice. Sure, he ran only 33 routes in his last four games. Yet, Toney had nine targets, eight receptions, 102 receiving yards, one receiving touchdown, three rushes, 26 rushing yards and one rushing touchdown since Week 15. What the dynamic second-year wideout lacks in playing time, he makes up for in touches when he's on the field. Toney is tied for the WR1V at DK and the WR3V at FD.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling is essentially the polar opposite of Toney. Since Week 15, he had only eight receptions for 81 yards and a touchdown. However, MVS was also third on the team in routes (109). The field-stretching wide receiver is a candidate for a big play just by running routes. That's the beauty of running routes for the rocket-armed and improvisational Mahomes.
Gamers should get creative and galaxy-brain a selection or two in tournaments on a two-game slate. So, Skyy Moore is a viable option. He ran 33 routes in his last three games but garnered a target on five of them, securing four receptions for 38 receiving yards. Moore also had two rushes for 12 receiving yards.
The rookie wideout was in an ancillary role all year. So, it's doubtful he pops up out of nowhere. However, Smith-Schuster was underwhelming to close out the regular season. So, could Andy Reid go into his bag of tricks and award Moore a few more slot snaps in a good matchup? Maybe. Moore played 50.0% of his passing snaps in his last three games in the slot, and slot wideouts have barbecued the Jags for the eighth-most DK and the 10th-most FD points per game since Week 13.
Jerick McKinnon is probably Kansas City's second-most exciting passing-game option behind Kelce. Since Week 15, he ran 82 routes and had 20 targets, 18 receptions, 153 receiving yards and five receiving touchdowns. The matchup should allow McKinnon to display his receiving chops. Jacksonville's allowed the fourth-most receptions and the fifth-most receiving yards per game to running backs since Week 13.
McKinnon also adds value on the ground. First, according to Football Outsiders, the Chiefs are third in Adjusted Line Yards (4.82). Obviously, that's a plus for McKinnon's rushing potential. He hasn't often made waves on the ground but had more than 50 rushing yards three times and scored once on the ground this year.
Game: New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles
Spread: NYG -7.5 Points
Over/Under: 48.0 Points
Giants Analysis: The Giants have had a remarkable turnaround under first-time NFL head coach Brian Daboll. Daniel Jones has also made significant strides this year. Nevertheless, Philadelphia's defense is much more challenging than Minnesota's pathetic defense. Since Week 13, the Eagles are eighth in rush defense DVOA and pass defense DVOA.
However, Philadelphia's somewhat prone against slot wide receivers. They've allowed the 13th-most DK and FD points per game to them since Week 13. Therefore Richie James is in a bounce-back spot after last week's ho-hum game. The Giants rested their starters in Week 18 against the Eagles, but James had seven receptions for 61 yards and a touchdown against Philadelphia in Week 14. Big Blue's slot wide receiver had at least four receptions in his previous five games, scored in two of those games, and had more than 60 scrimmage yards four times. So, James has enough juice to reward gamers who invest in him as a value pick.
Eagles Analysis: In Jalen Hurts's last two starts, he completed under 60% of his passes, threw zero touchdowns, tossed three interceptions and ran for 74 yards and three touchdowns. He hurt his shoulder in Week 15 against the Bears, sat out two games and wasn't sharp against the Giants in the season finale. Perhaps, Hurts will rebound to pre-injury form this week after a bye week to heel up further.
Still, instead of investing in Hurts, gamers can get exposure to Philly's passing attack through his duel alpha wideouts, A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith. Per PFF, Brown led the Eagles in targets (40), receptions (25), receiving yards (465) and touchdown receptions (three), and Smith was second in targets (31), receptions (22), receiving yards (359) and touchdown receptions (two) in Hurts's last four starts.
Brown and Smith are a lethal duo and have a tasty matchup. Big Blue has allowed the fifth-most DK and sixth-most FD points per game to perimeter wide receivers since Week 13. And when Brown and Smith rotate into the slot, the matchup is also good. The G-Men have allowed the 10th-most DK and the ninth-most FD points per game to slot wide receivers. Brown and Smith are stellar picks. The former is projected as the WR1, and the latter is projected as the WR2 on Saturday's main slate.
The Eagles have varied their offensive attack this year and frequently taken the path of least resistance. That path is on the ground against Big Blue. Since Week 13, the Giants are 12th in pass defense DVOA. However, they're 31st in rush defense DVOA and were ripped for 5.3 yards per carry by running backs.
Philadelphia's offensive line can help Sanders make the most of his cushy matchup. The Eagles are sixth in Adjusted Line Yards (4.66). Sadly, Sanders was bottled up for 33 scoreless yards on 11 attempts in Week 18 against New York. Yet, he gashed them for 144 rush yards, two rushing touchdowns, one reception and 11 receiving yards in Week 14. Sanders is a volatile pick worth taking a stab at in DFS this week.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
