The Cowboys and the Buccaneers cap off Super Wild Card weekend in a rematch of a contest from Week 1. The Buccaneers beat the Cowboys 19-3 in Dallas. Yet, the season has gone in opposite directions for both clubs, despite the Bucs owning the higher seed. Tampa Bay won the pitiful NFC South with an 8-9 record, and the Cowboys earned the highest seed among non-division winners by going 12-5. Thus, the Cowboys are favorites on the road. Still, both teams have intriguing options, and the game’s spread is narrow.
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The Cowboys and the Buccaneers cap off Super Wild Card weekend in a rematch of a contest from Week 1. The Buccaneers beat the Cowboys 19-3 in Dallas. Yet, the season has gone in opposite directions for both clubs, despite the Bucs owning the higher seed. Tampa Bay won the pitiful NFC South with an 8-9 record, and the Cowboys earned the highest seed among non-division winners by going 12-5. Thus, the Cowboys are favorites on the road. Still, both teams have intriguing options, and the game’s spread is narrow.
Beyond our daily fantasy football content, be sure to check out our Daily Fantasy Football Tools. From our Lineup Optimizer – which allows you to build winning DFS lineups in seconds for Cash and GPP contests – to our DFS Cheat Sheets – that helps you get a quick read on the day’s players – we’ve got you covered this fantasy football season.
Super Wild Card Showdown DFS Primer (Cowboys at Buccaneers)
Game: Dallas Cowboys at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Spread: DAL -2.5 Points
Over/Under: 45.5 Points
Cowboys Analysis: The Cowboys had a somewhat balanced attack down the stretch. According to numberFire, Dallas attempted 149 rushes by non-quarterbacks and 178 passes in neutral game scripts since Week 12. The formula worked in most of those games. The Cowboys scored at least 27 points in nine of their final 10 games in the regular season.
However, they left a bad taste in the mouths of onlookers in Week 18, scoring only six points. Dak Prescott was a trainwreck in Week 18. However, he should have earned some goodwill with DFS gamers by playing well before that. Still, he was also dreadful in Week 1 against the Bucs. Prescott's body of work is mainly impressive, but he's certainly not bulletproof.
Prescott had multiple touchdowns, passed for at least 250 yards eight times in his final 10 games of the regular season, and tossed multiple touchdowns in one of the outlier contests. Yet, he also passed for 134 scoreless yards, zero touchdowns, one interception, and completed under 50% of his passes against the Bucs in Week 1. Then, he closed the season by completing only 37.84% of his passes for 128 yards, one touchdown, and one interception against the Commanders.
Additionally, Prescott's numbers against the blitz were merely decent. According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), Prescott was only one of two quarterbacks among 37 who dropped back at least 50 times against the blitz this year and failed to have a big-time throw. Joe Flacco was the other quarterback. Prescott also threw three interceptions and had two turnover-worthy plays against the blitz this year. On the other side, per Pro-Football-Reference, the Bucs blitzed at the 10th-highest rate (28.1%). So, Prescott's a good option, but fading him isn't outrageous, either.
CeeDee Lamb is the most exciting option in Dallas's passing attack. Per numberFire, Lamb led the Cowboys in targets (63), receptions (49), receiving yards (608), and Air Yards (633) and tied for the team lead for touchdown receptions (four) on Prescott's 242 passes since Week 12.
Additionally, the matchup is outstanding. According to The 33rd Team and data from Sports Info Solutions (SIS), Tampa Bay's yielded the ninth-most DraftKings and the eighth-most FanDuel points per game to slot wide receivers since Week 12. Per PFF, Lamb was in the slot on 68.0% of his passing snaps in Dallas's final seven games in the regular season.
Dalton Schultz is second in Dallas's passing-game hierarchy and has a tasty matchup as well. Since Week 12, he was second on the Cowboys in targets (47) and had 28 receptions, 298 receiving yards, 398 Air Yards, and four receiving touchdowns on Prescott's passes. The Bucs have permitted the 11th-most DK and tied for the ninth-most FD points allowed per game to tight ends since Week 12.
T.Y. Hilton is the lowest-salaried viable player on the slate. He was a late-season addition in free agency, making his presence felt in an ancillary role. Hilton's seven receptions for 121 scoreless yards in three games weren't attention-grabbing numbers. However, he was targeted on a blistering 28.6% of his routes.
Hilton played the slot on 38.5% of his snaps and on the perimeter at a 61.5% clip. He'll have a plus matchup in either spot. In addition to coughing up points to the slot, Tampa Bay's tied for the 14th-most DK and FD points allowed to perimeter wide receivers since Week 12.
Tony Pollard is the fantasy-friendly running back in Dallas's two-back arrangement. In the last six games in the regular season in which Pollard and Ezekiel Elliott suited up together, Pollard had 61 rushes for 249 yards and two touchdowns versus 74 rushes for 289 yards and four touchdowns in neutral game scripts. So, Pollard was more efficient. But, yes, Zeke had more counting stats.
Still, Pollard's receiving contributions were the difference-maker between the duo. Pollard had 24 targets, 18 receptions, 128 receiving yards, 73 Air Yards, and one receiving touchdown in his last six games. The matchup is also slightly above average for Pollard. The Bucs have allowed the 14th-most DK and 13th-most FD points per game to running backs since Week 12. Finally, Pollard's home-run ability enhances his appeal since a single play can result in a touchdown from anywhere on the field.
Buccaneers Analysis: The Buccaneers have struggled mightily running the ball this year, and the matchup is dreadful for their rushing attack. According to Football Outsiders, the Cowboys are sixth in rush defense DVOA since Week 12.
Dallas gave more through the air, ranking 23rd in pass defense DVOA. So, it sets up for the Bucs to lean on the golden arm of the G.O.A.T., Tom Brady. The Bucs won't need their arms twisted to throw, either. In neutral game scripts from Week 12 through Week 17, the Bucs attempted 100 rushes by non-quarterbacks and 180 passes.
Brady had an underwhelming season by his standards. Yet, he closed the season with two of his best games in the last three games he played from start to finish (i.e., excluding the meaningless Week 18 contest). Brady passed for 312 yards, three touchdowns, and two interceptions in Week 15 against the Bengals, and he had 432 passing yards, three touchdowns, and zero interceptions in Week 17 against the Panthers. Perhaps, he's hitting his stride at the right time. Brady is an excellent pick, even if he's no longer a world-beater.
Chris Godwin and Mike Evans are the apples of Brady's eye. On Brady's 289 passes from Week 12 through Week 17, Godwin led the club in targets (62), receptions (50), and receiving yards (493) and had two touchdowns. Evans was a more boom-or-bust option, ranking second in targets (52), fourth in receptions (28), second in receiving yards (453), tied for first in touchdown receptions (three), and first in Air Yards (706).
Godwin has an average matchup against the Cowboys from the slot. Dallas has allowed the 16th-most DK and the 15th-most FD points per game to slot receivers since Week 12. However, Evans has the ideal matchup since the Cowboys have coughed up the most DK and FD points per game to perimeter wideouts during that timeframe.
Russell Gage can also thrive in that matchup on the perimeter. He was targeted on an adequate 18.6% of his routes since Week 12 and tied for the team lead in receiving touchdowns (three). Gage also overtook Julio Jones in the pecking order. In the last two games in which the two played together, Gage ran 59 routes, and Jones ran only 27.
Final Thoughts: There are a few exciting options for the Captain/MVP spot. Namely, Lamb, Brady, and Evans are my favorite choices. Prescott should be used with Lamb on teams where the stud wideout is the Captain/MVP, but Prescott's not a must-use player on other rosters. Finally, gamers entering multiple lineups should create a mix of balanced and unbalanced lineups since the range of outcomes for this contest is vast.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
