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Quarterback Preview: Values, Breakouts & Busts (2023 Fantasy Football)

Quarterback Preview: Values, Breakouts & Busts (2023 Fantasy Football)

While the 2022 NFL season is over, fantasy football is a year-long thing. Therefore, it’s never too early to look ahead to next year.

Today, I look back at the 2022 season, highlighting some of the top ADP values, breakouts, and busts at the quarterback position while also taking an early look at potential candidates in these areas for the 2023 season.

2023 Fantasy Football Best Ball Draft Advice

2022 General Review

The 2022 offseason was all about the moves at quarterback, as several big-name players got traded. Meanwhile, the rookie draft class was an underwhelming group. However, it was the year of the unknown in 2022. Several high-profile quarterbacks struggled, while veterans wrote off for dead became league winners off the waiver wire.

2022 Top ADP Values

Geno Smith (SEA)

No one gave Smith a chance after the Seahawks traded away their franchise quarterback. Everyone assumed Drew Lock would win the starting job and Seattle would have a top-three pick in the 2023 NFL Draft. However, Smith had a career year. The former second-round pick had never finished a season higher than the QB20 in his career. Yet, Smith was the QB5 in 2022, averaging 17.9 fantasy points per game. Furthermore, he led the league in completion percentage (69.8%) and finished fourth in passing touchdowns (30). The only question is can Smith do it again in 2023?

Jared Goff (DET)

Goff was the QB24 in his first year in Detroit, averaging 13.9 fantasy points per game. Many expected the Lions to draft a replacement for the veteran quarterback last year. Instead, they added to his receiving core. However, Jameson Williams had no impact on the team last year. Yet, Goff had arguably the best season of his career. He ended the year as the QB10, averaging 16.7 fantasy points per game. Furthermore, his 29 passing touchdowns were 10 more than his 2021 total and the second most of his career. Maybe the Lions still draft a replacement for the veteran, but Goff has made the decision much harder.

2022 Top Breakouts

Jalen Hurts (PHI)

While the 2022 season was full of surprises, Hurts wasn’t one of them. The star quarterback was a popular breakout candidate heading into the season and didn’t disappoint. He would have ended the year as the QB1 if not for a shoulder injury that cost him two games. Furthermore, Hurts was the QB1 on a points-per-game basis, averaging 25.2 fantasy points per contest. His rushing ability was a fantasy cheat code. The star quarterback had 13 rushing touchdowns last year, the second most in the NFL and the most among quarterbacks. What will Hurts do in 2023? The sky is the limit.

Trevor Lawrence (JAC)

Having a legit NFL head coach made a massive difference for Lawrence. The former No. 1 overall pick was awful as a rookie, throwing only 12 touchdowns and 17 interceptions, an NFL high. However, he was a superstar in 2022. Lawrence ended the year as the QB7, averaging 17.4 fantasy points per game. More importantly, the superstar had 30 total touchdowns and only eight interceptions last year. He scored 21 or more fantasy points in 35.3 percent of the games last season. As excellent as the second-year quarterback was in 2022, Lawrence should only get better next year with the addition of Calvin Ridley.

Dynasty Rookie Draft Kit

2022 Top Busts

Justin Herbert (LAC)

Over the first two years of his career, Herbert averaged 22.3 fantasy points per game. He ended his rookie year as the QB9 before ending the 2021 season as the QB2. The superstar had high expectations heading into the 2022 season, getting drafted as a top-three quarterback in most fantasy leagues. Unfortunately, Herbert was the QB11 last year, averaging a career-low 16.5 fantasy points per game. The Chargers dealt with numerous injuries on offense.

Furthermore, Herbert had to play multiple games without Keenan Allen or Mike Williams last season. However, fantasy players shouldn’t worry about the superstar quarterback. Kellen Moore taking over as offensive coordinator could lead to a career year for Herbert.

Dak Prescott (DAL)

Many considered Prescott an ADP value heading into last year. The star quarterback averaged 27 fantasy points per game in 2020 before suffering a season-ending ankle injury. Then he was the QB7 in 2021, averaging 20 fantasy points per game. Over a year removed from the injury, many thought Prescott could have a career year on the ground. However, he suffered a thumb injury in Week 1 and missed multiple weeks. Prescott ended the year as the QB19, averaging 16.6 fantasy points per game. Even on a points-per-game basis, he still finished outside the top-12 quarterbacks. More importantly, the veteran had a career-high 15 interceptions last year. He led the league despite playing only 12 games.

2023 General Preview

Last year many were scared to draft Patrick Mahomes after the Kansas City Chiefs traded away Tyreek Hill in the offseason. However, that was a mistake. Mahomes had a career-high 5,250 passing yards in 2022, leading the NFL. Furthermore, his 41 touchdowns were the second-most in his career while leading the league. More importantly, the superstar quarterback averaged 24.5 fantasy points per game, the second-highest in his career. Mahomes should be a consensus QB1 for next season, regardless of what happens this offseason.

2023 Potential ADP Values

Deshaun Watson (CLE)

The former Houston Texan wasn’t drafted in most redraft leagues last year, thanks to an 11-game suspension. Furthermore, Watson went 700 days without playing in an NFL game. Therefore, it’s no surprise that the star quarterback struggled last season. He averaged only 14.3 fantasy points per game, 30.9 percent lower than his previous career low. However, Watson’s poor play last year is good news for fantasy players. He has never finished lower than the QB5 any year before last season except his rookie year. Yet, his ADP will be outside the top 10 quarterbacks. More importantly, Watson played well to end the season. He averaged 2.5 passing touchdowns and 19.7 fantasy points per game over the final two weeks.

Russell Wilson (DEN)

Call me crazy, but I’m 100% in on Wilson for next season. You don’t go from playing like a Future Hall of Famer to flat-out awful in one year. While the star quarterback struggled in his first year with the Broncos, Wilson played better at the end of the season. Over his final four games, the veteran quarterback averaged 20.1 fantasy points per game. More importantly, he had arguably his two best performances of the year after the team fired Nathaniel Hackett. Wilson had 505 combined passing yards and six total touchdowns, scoring over 23 fantasy points in both contests. With Sean Payton taking over, don’t be surprised if Wilson is in the MVP race next year.

NFL Draft Prospects (2023 Fantasy Football)

2023 Potential Breakouts

Justin Fields (CHI)

How can Fields be a breakout candidate after ending the 2022 season as the QB6, averaging 19.7 fantasy points per game? The same way Hurts did last season. He was the QB9 in 2021, averaging 20.8 fantasy points per game. However, 44.3 percent of his fantasy production came on the ground. Similarly, 54.8 percent of Fields’ production last year came in the running game. Where Hurts improved in 2022 was throwing the ball, having a career-high 3,701 yards and 22 touchdowns. Fields had some promising moments throwing the ball last year, including a three-passing touchdown performance in Week 9. If the Bears add an A.J. Brown-like playmaker this offseason, Fields could be the QB1 in 2023.

Trey Lance (SF)

While we’ve barely seen him play over the first two years of his NFL career, fantasy players should still have high hopes for Lance. He started two games as a rookie and played the entire second half of another matchup. In those 2.5 games, the young quarterback averaged 18 fantasy points per game. However, adjusting for only playing 10 quarters of football instead of 12, the former No. 3 overall pick would have averaged 21.6 fantasy points per game in those three contests. Last year, Lance would have been the QB4 with that fantasy points per game average. Short of Tom Brady coming out of retirement, Lance will be the starter in 2023 and could have a breakout season.

2023 Potential Busts

Tua Tagovailoa (MIA)

Tagovailoa had a career year in 2022 with 3,548 passing yards and 25 touchdowns. More importantly, he averaged 17.8 fantasy points per game, 22.7% higher than his career average entering the year. Unfortunately, Tagovailoa’s season was highlighted by multiple concussions. The young quarterback missed four regular season games, including two straight to end the regular season and Miami’s playoff matchup. More importantly, the hype around Tagovailoa doesn’t match his production. Even on a points-per-game basis, he was only the QB10 last year. Furthermore, Tagovailoa scored nearly 30 percent of his fantasy points in two games last season. Meanwhile, he scored under 16 fantasy points in 61.5 percent of the contests.

Kyler Murray (ARI)

Unfortunately, Murray suffered a torn ACL last year. Not only did the injury end his 2022 season, but it also puts his 2023 season in doubt. The star quarterback likely won’t be ready to play until mid-season. However, the Cardinals have no reason to rush their franchise signal-caller back on the field. Arizona probably will have a bottom-five record when Murray is ready to play. The team might decide to leave the star quarterback on the sidelines rather than risk another injury. Yet, Murray currently has an ADP as the 17th quarterback off the board on Underdog Fantasy. Unless he is miraculously ready to start the season, Murray shouldn’t get drafted in 1QB redraft or best ball leagues.

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Mike Fanelli is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @Mike_NFL2.

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