The current fantasy football landscape isn’t kind to pocket passers. The best fantasy options have added value as runners. As a result, strictly pocket-passing quarterbacks must post absurd passing numbers through a high volume, efficiency or both to separate themselves from the fringe fantasy starters. Still, even the best non-running quarterbacks have a capped ceiling.

They can still be valuable and help fantasy teams. But the opportunity cost of reaching above their arbitrage plays frequently isn’t worth it. So, while the two quarterbacks in this piece aren’t ranked outrageously within their position group, they’re going too early in half-point-per-reception (half PPR) formats.

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Quarterbacks to Avoid

Dak Prescott (QB – DAL): 83.0 ADP/87 ECR

Prescott is the QB10 in half PPR average draft position (ADP) after finishing as the QB9 in 2022 and the QB10 in 2021 in points per game (PPG) among quarterbacks who started more than one game during those seasons. On its face, that’s not an unreasonable ranking.

However, Jared Goff was the QB14 in PPG in 2022 and scored only 0.9 fewer points per game than Prescott. The difference in ADP between Prescott and the QB14, Geno Smith (104.3), is 21.3 picks, nearly three full rounds in 12-team leagues. Now, we’re getting into the crux of the issue of spending a seventh or eighth-round pick on Prescott. Choosing Prescott means bypassing a top-40 WR or a top-36 RB.

But can Prescott surpass his production from the previous two years? He was the QB5 (21.3 PPG) in 2019 and the QB1 (27.7 PPG) in PPG in 2020. Yet, he was healthy for only five games in his explosive 2020 campaign. In addition, Prescott has had his two lowest marks for rushing yards per game and rushing touchdowns in the two subsequent seasons after sustaining a compound fracture and dislocation of his right ankle in 2020. Unless he turns the clock back as a runner in his age-30 season, a top-five QB finish is likely unattainable.

Prescott’s passing could also take a hit with a new play caller and offensive coordinator this year. The Cowboys and Kellen Moore parted ways this offseason. Head coach Mike McCarthy will call the plays this year, and Brian Schottenheimer is the new offensive coordinator.

McCarthy leaned heavily on the passing attack but used a slow-paced offense in his final three years as Green Bay’s head coach and play caller from 2016-2018. And Schottenheimer had a slow-paced offense that rarely cut the passing game loose in Seattle as their offensive coordinator from 2018-2020. Conversely, Moore had fast-paced offenses as the offensive coordinator for the Cowboys from 2019-2022, albeit with run-heavy tendencies most of those years. Thankfully, quarterbacks could chuck it regularly during Moore’s tenure because they were playing fast.

The following table presents situation-neutral pace, Pass Rate Over Expected (PROE), passing yards per game and scoring offense for the Packers from 2016-2018, the Seahawks from 2018-2020 and the Cowboys from 2019-2022. The pace data is from Football Outsiders, the PROE info is from nfelo app and the team passing yards per game and scoring per game are from Pro-Football-Reference.

Context is important for three of the seasons listed on the table. In 2017, Brett Hundley started nine games for the Packers. And in 2020, Prescott started only five games for the Cowboys. In the other 11 games, Andy Dalton started nine, Ben DiNucci started one and Garrett Gilbert started one contest. Furthermore, Cooper Rush started five games for the Cowboys in 2022. Prescott passed for 238.3 yards per game last year, which would have ranked 10th among team passing yards per game.

The numbers during McCarthy's final three years in Green Bay and Schottenheimer's three seasons in Seattle were mainly underwhelming. So, they're discouraging for Prescott's passing outlook this season. The reasons for pessimism about Prescott's fantasy value in 2023 don't end there, either. Instead, McCarthy had eye-brow-raising comments earlier this year about wanting "to run the damn ball." There's potential for Dallas's offense to tank this year with McCarthy's dinosaur play-calling theories, despite an intriguing collection of weapons. As a result, Prescott's being over rafted by a round and a half or two rounds in 12-team leagues. Gamers would be better off taking swings at Daniel Jones (93.7 ADP), Kirk Cousins (94.7) or Tua Tagovailoa (96.7). Even doubling up on Geno Smith (104.3), Jared Goff (106.0) or Russell Wilson (115.3) with freakish rookie Anthony Richardson (108.3) is more enticing than spending a top-90 pick on Prescott.

Aaron Rodgers (QB - NYJ): 106.7 ADP/116 ECR

Rodgers is unquestionably a first-ballot Hall of Famer when he's eligible to be enshrined. He's also only one season removed from back-to-back MVP seasons. Rodgers's inclusion in this piece isn't a declaration he'll fall off a cliff this year -- though, he'll turn 40 this year, and there aren't many quarterbacks who've played at a high level at that age.

However, even during his MVP seasons, he was the QB5 (24.1 PPG) and the QB6 (21.5 PPG) among quarterbacks who started more than one game in 2020 and 2021. Obviously, gamers who select Rodgers at his QB16 ADP would be overjoyed if he was a top-six fantasy QB. However, he sandwiched those years with a QB15 (17.5 PPG) and a QB25 (14.9 PPG) finish in 2019 and 2022, respectively. Adding further perspective to Rodgers's 2022 scoring, Deshaun Watson was the QB26 and averaged 14.2 PPG, and Matt Ryan was the QB27 and averaged 14.0 PPG.

According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), among 31 quarterbacks who dropped back at least 300 times in the regular season and postseason in 2022, Rodgers had PFF's 10th-highest passing grade and was second in big-time-throw percentage (5.7 BTT%). On the plus side, Rodgers didn't have apparent signs of an imminent cliff season in last year's PFF stats. Yet, he was still only the QB25.

In addition, relative to Rodgers's extraordinarily high level of play, last year was a red flag. Rodgers's PFF passing grade in 2022 was his lowest since 2017 and the third-lowest in 15 seasons as a starter for the Packers. And his 2.9 turnover-worthy-play percentage (TWP%) was his highest mark since 2017 and tied for the second-highest in his years as a starter.

A reunion with Nathaniel Hackett could also be treacherous for Rodgers's fantasy value. Sure, Hackett was Green Bay's offensive coordinator from 2019-2021, and Rodgers won the NFL MVP Award in 2020 and 2021. However, Hackett wasn't the team's play caller. Instead, Green Bay's head coach, Matt LaFleur, was the play caller.

Hackett was most recently the head coach and play caller for the Broncos last year before he was fired for going 4-11. And he has previous experience as Jacksonville's offensive coordinator and the play caller for the 2017 and 2018 seasons after he was the interim offensive coordinator and play caller for the final nine games for the Jaguars in 2016. The Jaguars weren't loaded on offense when Hackett was the offensive coordinator, but his tenure was unimpressive. The following table has the situation-neutral pace, PROE, passing yards per game and scoring offense information for six seasons when Hackett was the offensive coordinator, play caller or both.

Rodgers will also transition from playing for a head coach with an offensive background to a new head coach, Robert Saleh, who cut his teeth by coaching on defense. Thus, Gang Green's coaching staff isn't the most exciting for bringing the best out of Rodgers.

Rodgers is drafted as just a QB2 in 12-team leagues. So, most gamers aren't counting on him to start for fantasy squads. Still, wasting a bench spot on a backup quarterback is ill-advised for anyone who drafts a top-eight quarterback. And those who take a fringe starter are better off swinging for the fences with a cheaper quarterback who has rushing potential, such as Richardson (108.3 ADP), Sam Howell (190.3) or Trey Lance (188.7). If Howell or Lance aren't declared the starters for the Commanders and 49ers, gamers can cut bait.

Finally, unless most teams are carrying a second quarterback on the bench through bye weeks, streaming a quarterback during a fantasy team's starter's bye week is more appealing than drafting Rodgers as a QB2 ahead of intriguing flex choices, such as Quentin Johnston (108.3 ADP), Michael Thomas (108.7), Rashaad Penny (112.3) and many others.

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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.