Dynasty leagues are always reacting to the volatility of player performance year after year and knowing when to buy and sell players can open up huge returns for your rosters. This article will take a look at a few players who are facing make-or-break years for their fantasy values. For managers looking to move them on these players might be best served to wait and hope for a big performance, while managers in rebuilds might want to consider these players as those who could see their values increase this year and speculatively send offers for them now.
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7 Make-or-Break Dynasty Fantasy Football Players
Let’s take a look at seven players entering make-or-break seasons in dynasty fantasy football leagues.
Gabriel Davis (WR – BUF) – WR47
It’s possible that 2022 saw no other receiver as hyped up as Gabriel Davis was, with his redraft price hitting the fourth round of drafts and in dynasty leagues Davis’s price peaked in the mid-teens among wide receivers, before ultimately Davis was unable to deliver on the hype, struggling through an ankle injury for much of the 2022 campaign. Davis did deliver four weekly finishes inside the top 13 half-PPR wide receivers, but the disappointment has lingered for fantasy managers with Davis now ranked anywhere between WR40-50 and available for a 2024 mid-second-round pick. If Davis is able to play to a higher level than during his injury hit-2023, that might look like a bargain in a few months time, particularly given the Bills have thus far added no serious pass-catching competition.
Chase Claypool (WR – CHI) – WR65
Much like Gabriel Davis, Chase Claypool was once the hot property in dynasty leagues with him almost ranked as a WR1 after his breakout rookie season. However, ever since Claypool’s value has continuously slid to the point that now you can acquire him for an early third-round pick and you might find the manager rostering Claypool would be very happy to take that deal. After the Bears traded what ended up being the 32nd overall pick to acquire Claypool at the 2022 trade deadline, Claypool went on to total 13 catches for 115 yards and it never became clear what they wanted to do with him. Now the Bears have brought in better competition in the shape of DJ Moore and they will still be a run-heavy team, even if they do pass slightly more than last year. If you’re rebuilding, Claypool could be a low-cost bet to make hoping he might climb in value with the development of Justin Fields, but there are plenty of paths to his value not increasing.
Russell Wilson (QB – DEN) – QB21
Ever since Russell Wilson departed Seattle it’s been a whirlwind for both him and fantasy managers, with neither particularly happy at how things have played out. There are though reasons for hope this year and Wilson having dropped to QB21 in dynasty rankings now looks like a player who might be slightly undervalued if Sean Payton can rejuvenate him. Wilson flashed down the stretch with two top-five performances in the final three weeks of the fantasy season once Nathaniel Hackett departed the team. On top of having a better head coach, Wilson also has an upgraded offensive line. If Wilson flames out again this year he might be leaning towards backup quarterback territory, but if Payton convinces Wilson to do things his way, he could be a dink-and-dunk pocket passer for several years and a solid bet in superflex leagues.
Tua Tagovailoa (QB – MIA) – QB13
It wasn’t too long ago that many of the strongest doubts about Tua Tagovailoa seemed to come from within the Dolphins facility and often from the owner, Stephen Ross. Tagovailoa finds himself on this list due to a series of nasty concussion issues in 2022 when he played just twelve complete games. The team has indicated they have no concerns about Tagovailoa’s long-term outlook, but they also haven’t started contract extension talks while both Joe Burrow and Justin Herbert from the same draft expect to be paid sooner rather than later. Tua’s 4.8 touchdown to interception ratio lead the league and perhaps surprisingly his average depth of target was second-highest amongst starters. Tagovailoa was the QB11 in points per game last year, and with him being valued as the QB13 in our Dynasty Rankings, a repeat performance could see his value climb nicely.
Trey Lance (QB – SF) – QB25
As a one-time Trey Lance fan who embarked on many a rant about Lance’s fantasy value, it has been a rough journey to this point, but even the staunchest Lance believers have mainly given up hope now. Lance has lost the job through little fault of his own. Much like Anthony Richardson in this class, when Lance was drafted he wasn’t viewed as a finished product and the Niners didn’t intend to throw him in from day one. Unfortunately for Lance, when he did get a chance he injured his thumb which hampered his progress in his rookie year, and then we all know how small a sample size he had in 2022. What little we have seen of Lance, he has shown us that he isn’t as electric in the ground game as many other dual-threats and his passing was erratic at best. At age 23, it feels unfair to call Lance’s career potentially on a cliff’s edge, but Lance has thrown a total of 419 passes since the start of his 2018 college season, a number that 16 quarterbacks exceeded in 2022 alone. Lance’s only hope of increasing his dynasty value is an injury or performance regression from Brock Purdy, and even then it might end up being Sam Darnold as the next man up. Lance is a fine option as your QB4 in Superflex leagues, and if you’re rebuilding and are willing to take on some risk to possibly add some value down the road. Otherwise, it’s looking like a lost cause.
Antonio Gibson (RB – WAS) – RB39
When Antonio Gibson burst onto the scene during his rookie season, he looked like the next true three-down workhorse running back and fantasy managers were exhilarated by the idea of a former wide receiver who was now playing running back. Sadly things fizzled out somewhat to a point where last year the Commanders had him fielding punts in training camp. The positive for Gibson is that the team has yet to make any moves of note at running back, leaving the backfield to be divided between Antonio Gibson and Brian Robinson Jr. The backfield was a mess at times in 2022, with neither Gibson nor Robinson providing much in the way of fantasy returns, but where Gibson stands out is his work in the receiving game, averaging 3.9 targets per game in comparison to Robinson’s 1.0. Gibson looks like the more electric option, and barring the Commanders adding a veteran free agent, Gibson is a real upside play for 2023. For a mid-late second-round pick, he could pay off handsomely if new offensive coordinator Eric Bienemy chooses to utilize him often.
Deshaun Watson (QB – CLE) – QB9
2022 was a disaster for the Browns, who likely never envisioned Deshaun Watson looking quite so awful when they sold their souls to sign a quarterback with such a troubled past. Fantasy managers who sat with Watson on their bench for nearly two full years without any returns can’t have felt much better either. Looking forward, however, it’s hard to imagine how Watson doesn’t take a step forward in 2023 with an offseason where he won’t be in a courtroom or dealing with a suspension. In 2022, Watson completed a miserable 16 passes per game, which ranked 40th among quarterbacks. He had a worse QB rating than other miserable options such as Desmond Ridder and Russell Wilson, so any improvement to the offense will have to start firmly with Watson. The Browns have talked about this offense being pass-heavier moving forward, and if that’s the case and Watson can rediscover the kind of form we haven’t seen since 2020 then his trade value of the 1.04 might look like a bargain. Fantasy managers who rostered him through the legal issues will be hoping they at least have the option of recouping some value at some point.
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