Let’s dive into fantasy football sleepers! I selected the start of Round 8 as my cut-off for sleepers because I’ve often found that’s the range in the draft when we start to see breakout RBs emerge.
The main goal is that one or several of them beat their average draft positions (ADP) by a significant margin, akin to performances from Rhamondre Stevenson, Tyler Allgeier, Dameon Pierce, Jerick McKinnon, Isiah Pacheco, D’Onta Foreman, Brandon Aiyuk, Christian Kirk, Garrett Wilson, Justin Fields, Daniel Jones and Tyler Conklin last season.
Be prepared to find hidden talents across all teams, including those in unexpected situations like the Arizona Cardinals. My only requirement is that these players possess ADPs outside the top-84 players (in some capacity because this can vary by draft platform).
Get ready to make strategic moves and uncover the next breakout stars! Here are my top fantasy football sleepers for all NFL teams. Below we’ll offer a free look at a few of these names.
- Fitz’s Draft Primers: QB | RB | WR | TE
- Fantasy Football Draft Strategy
- 2023 Fantasy Football Draft Kit
- Fantasy Football Mock Draft Simulator
Fantasy Football Draft Sleepers
Denver signed ex-Bengals running back Samaje Perine – 2 years, $7.5 million, $3 million guaranteed – after releasing Chase Edmonds (Buccaneers) and moving on from Mike Boone (Texans). With Javonte Williams potentially delayed in return from his knee injury, I’d suspect that Perine (RB 46 ADP) picks up the slack to open the year if he stays in the Mile High City. The Broncos have zero other RBs of note currently under contract. Therefore, Perine has the chance to provide immediate fantasy value to start the year after carving out a role in the Bengals’ offense alongside Joe Mixon last season. He served as the primary third-down back for the entire season. And when Perine got the starting nod from Weeks 11-13, the 27-year-old went OFF averaging 23.6 fantasy points per game. Perine is a legitimate threat to Williams’ workload as he could easily earn the passing-down work after finishing last season 6th in PFF pass-blocking and 14th in RB targets.
Devin Singletary joins the Houston Texans on a one-year deal worth $3.75 million, where he is expected to back up the team’s lead rusher, Dameon Pierce. Singletary’s 2022 season with the Buffalo Bills was productive as he operated as the 1A in the team’s backfield, finishing as the RB23 overall and RB27 in points per game. However, he shared touches with rookie James Cook, leading to a full-blown committee situation. Cook matched Singletary point-for-point and averaged a 40% snap share over the final seven games. Singletary totaled just nine more carries than Cook from Weeks 13-20 but ended the year 10th in PFF rushing grade (two spots ahead of Pierce). While Singletary’s strong finish over the last two seasons won’t help his case to become Houston’s lead rusher, he is a credible threat to Pierce’s workload compared to the other available options on the team. Singletary’s PFF pass-blocking grade (73.2, 8th) could also secure his usage on passing downs, where Pierce struggled as a rookie (32.3, 52nd) in that capacity. Still, Pierce’s potential to be a three-down back is higher as Singletary hasn’t thrived as a receiver.
Overall, Singletary’s role in Houston’s backfield is ambiguous, but he brings quality depth and veteran experience to the team. With a history of being productive in committee situations, he could become a valuable fantasy asset if Pierce suffers an injury or if the team decides to operate more in a committee fashion. Singletary already thinks that is going to be the case, stating that he and Pierce will be a solid one-two punch. He also said it’s been shown in this offense that more than one guy can eat. Considering the lack of reliable targets among the team’s hodgepodge WRs (Nico Collins withstanding), don’t be shocked if Singletary posts solid reception numbers yet again. He’s caught at least 43 balls and earned at least 53 targets over the past three seasons. He has also never played fewer than 57% of his team’s offensive snaps over his four-year career.
I’d also be hard-pressed to not bring up the record of running backs in the Kyle Shanahan/49ers system with former 49ers staffer Bobby Slowik taking over as the Texans offensive coordinator. You never want to draft the first guy based on ADP.
- 2022: Elijah Mitchell drafted RB1. Christian McCaffrey RB1.
- 2021: Raheem Mostert drafted RB1. Elijah Mitchell RB1.
- 2020: Raheem Mostert drafted RB1. Jeff Wilson Jr. RB1.
- 2019: Tevin Coleman drafted RB1, Matt Breida drafted RB2. Raheem Mostert RB1.
- 2018: Jerick McKinnon drafted RB1, Alfred Morris drafted RB2. Matt Breida RB1.
- 2017: Carlos Hyde drafted RB1. Hyde RB1.
We saw something similar play out in Miami last offseason, with Shanahan disciple Mike McDaniel casting off Chase Edmonds as the first Dolphins RB drafted in fantasy.
De’Von Achane (MIA)
Devon Achane is one of the most exciting rookie running backs entering the league this season. In his final year at Texas A&M, Achane exploded for 1,100 rushing yards and eight touchdowns, while also catching 36 passes (3.6/game) for 196 yards. He finished the season with a 33% dominator rating, proving that he can handle a large workload as the clear-cut No. 1 back for the Aggies. Despite concerns about his size, Achane proved his toughness by carrying the ball 38 times for 215 yards and two touchdowns in his final game against LSU.
The Miami Dolphins made a smart move by selecting Achane in the third round of the 2023 NFL Draft. He is a perfect fit for their outside zone running offense, and his elite track speed will make him a terror for opposing defenses. The current depth chart in Miami consists of an injury-prone Raheem Mostert and journeyman Jeff Wilson Jr., so Achane has a real chance to earn opportunities if not the starting job altogether. Not only is Achane a dynamic runner, but he is also an elite kickoff returner. He finished last season as PFF’s third-highest graded kick returner among 2023 draft-eligible players. This ensures he will be an active player on game days, giving him additional opportunities to make an impact. Achane’s potential in Miami’s offense and lack of competition behind him makes him a great high-upside pick in fantasy drafts.
More Players to Target & Avoid
- Pat Fitzmaurice: (Targets | Avoids) (Premium)
- Andrew Erickson: (Targets | Avoids) (Premium)
- Derek Brown: (Targets | Avoids) (Premium)
- Fantasy Football Sleepers for Every Team (Premium)
- How to Identify Fantasy Football Busts (Premium)
- Erickson’s Guide to Drafting Players on Good Offenses
- Fantasy Football Draft Values for Every Round
- Predicting First-Round Bust Candidates
- DBro’s Wide Receiver Lottery Tickets
- Erickson’s Running Back Lottery Tickets
- Hoppen’s 4 Players Who Could Become First-Round Picks Next Year
- Players to Target in Each Round (v2 | v3)
- Players to Avoid in Each Round
- Late-Round Draft Targets
- Late-Round QB Targets in Superflex Leagues | More QB Sleepers
- Late-Round RB Targets | More RB Sleepers | July RB Targets
- Late-Round WR Targets
- Late-Round TE Targets
- Deep Dart Throw Draft Targets
- WRs to Target in the RB Dead Zone (v2)| RBs to Avoid in the RB Dead Zone | RBs to Target in RB Dead Zone
- Identifying the Next WR1s | Identifying the Next RB1s
- 2022 Duds That Will Become 2023 Studs
- 4 Kickers To Target at the End of Drafts
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | SoundCloud | iHeartRadio
