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NFL DFS GPP Lineup Advice & Picks (Week 12)

NFL DFS GPP Lineup Advice & Picks (Week 12)

We had a nice appetizer of games on Thanksgiving, but this is the main course. We have 10 games making up the main card, and it’s scary just how deep into the season we’re getting. The fantasy playoffs are right around the corner for most managers, and the BYE weeks are also almost over. It’s showing on the field because we saw numerous players get injured last week. That’ll surely play a factor in this article, so let’s get into it!

The players below are ones I’m looking at for GPP considerations for Week 12

Quarterbacks

DraftKings

Trevor Lawrence (QB – JAX): $6,400 at HOU

It’s been a terrible season for T-Law from a fantasy perspective, but that Week 11 masterclass is an encouraging sign. This former top pick scored a season-high 32 DraftKings points in one of the best games of his career. We’ve also seen him crack 15 DK points in eight of 10 games this year, and he might be due for a late-season surge. Facing Houston is a great way to build off that gem, posting a 25th OPRK against opposing quarterbacks.

Gardner Minshew (QB – IND): $5,100 vs. TB

It’s wild to see Minshew this cheap. He’s obviously struggled as the starter in Indy, but he’s priced around many backups. This guy still loves to sling it, averaging nearly 15 DK points per game as a starter throughout his career. His willingness to throw has us excited to use him against Tampa, a team that has surrendered the most passing yards in the NFL over the last month.

FanDuel

Baker Mayfield (QB – TB): $6,800 at IND

Mayfield has quietly had a bounceback season for the Bucs. The Tampa Bay signal-caller is averaging 17 FanDuel points per game this season. That alone is an impressive total from a sub-$7K player, but it’s no surprise since he has weapons like Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. Indy isn’t too bad of a matchup either, posting a 16th OPRK against opposing signal-callers.

Derek Carr (QB – NO): $6,800 at ATL

Many people will overlook Carr because he suffered a concussion in his most recent game, but this guy was reviving his season before that. The former Raider had at least 16 FanDuel points in five straight fixtures prior to that injury. It’s rare to find someone this cheap with a 16-point floor, but he was attempting over 40 pass attempts per game in his previous four outings! Not to mention, Atlanta allows the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks.

Running Backs

DraftKings

Rhamondre Stevenson (RB – NE): $5,800 at NYG

This BYE week was a great time for New England to figure some things out, and one of them should be to get this guy the ball more. Stevenson has scored at least 13 DraftKings points in four of his last five outings. Stretches like that had him as a Top 10 back last season, and a matchup with New York should keep him rolling. The Giants are allowing the second-most rushing yards in the NFL, with New England entering this game as a rare favorite.

Kareem Hunt (RB – CLE): $4,800 at CLE

Most people will use Jerome Ford as Cleveland’s starter, but both backs should be in play. Hunt has been the primary goal-line guy, averaging 11.7 DK points across his last six outings. You never see that average from a $4,800 player, and it doesn’t even consider this matchup. Denver is dead last in fantasy points allowed to opposing rushers, and we should see Cleveland run a ton with Deshaun Watson injured.

FanDuel

Joe Mixon (RB – CIN): $7,600 vs. PIT

Most people will see Mix at $7,600 and fade him against Pittsburgh, but that’s not a great idea. The Steelers sound like a tough matchup because of their franchise history, but this team allows the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing backs. That’s bad news with how Mixon is mauling his opponents, averaging 16 FanDuel points per game across his last four outings. This Cincy team also lost Joe Burrow, so look for them to lean on Mixon for the remainder of the season.

Javonte Williams (RB – DEN): $6,400 vs. CLE

Williams has established himself as the bellcow back in Denver, but he’s not being priced like it. Over his last four fixtures, J-Will is averaging 18.5 carries and 3.3 targets per game. Not many sub-$7K players get that type of workload, and it looks even more bizarre since he’s averaging 14 FanDuel points per game in that span. Facing Cleveland is challenging, but look for Williams to get another 20 touches in what should be a grinder of a game.

Wide Receivers

DraftKings

Adam Thielen (WR – CAR): $7,300 at TEN

This team has switched play-callers twice this season, and they’re back to what made Thielen a stud in the opening weeks. Frank Reich is back to calling plays for Carolina, with Thielen recording at least seven receptions in each of the last five games he’s called. He’s also scored at least 11 DK points in all of those, averaging nearly 20 DraftKings points per game! That’s tremendous against this terrible Tennessee secondary, posting a 27th OPRK against opposing wideouts.

Marquise Brown (WR – ARI): $5,200 vs. LAR

It’s hard to get excited about Brown, but this guy will get better now that Kyler Murray is back. He’s still Murray’s top target, flirting with a 30 percent team target share last season when Kyler was behind center. We haven’t seen that in the two games since Murray’s return, but we’re willing to bet on some positive regression at this $5,200 price tag in a GPP. The last time Murray and Brown faced LA, Marquise had 14 catches for 140 yards in one of the best games of his career.

FanDuel

Davante Adams (WR – LV): $7,700 vs. KC

It won’t be a typical Adams All-Pro season, but this is still one of the best receivers in the NFL. Aidan O’Connell knows that, peppering Adams with 26 targets over the last two games. That’s amazing since he’s attempted 68 passes in that span, falling just shy of a 40 percent tam target share. If this stud continues to get 40 percent of the team’s targets, he needs to be rostered below $8K with the talent he possesses. This is also a game where Vegas will have to throw to keep up with this dangerous Chiefs defense.

Gabe Davis (WR – BUF): $6,000 at PHI

Davis is the definition of a GPP player. He’s scored 1.6 or fewer fantasy points in three of his last five outings but dropped a 19-point gem in the middle of those. He’s also famous for having that historical playoff game and leading all Buffalo pass-catchers in snap share. If he’s out there for 90 percent of the time in this matchup, Davis should be productive because Philly is surrendering the most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers this year.

Tight Ends

DraftKings

David Njoku (TE – CLE): $4,100 at DEN

People don’t realize just how much Njoku is being fed right now. The Browns tight end has at least eight targets in four of his last five games, recording a career-high 15 targets in Week 11. That’s no surprise with this rookie behind center because Njoku got seven targets as Dorian Thompson-Robinson‘s safety blanket earlier in the year. If we get double-digit targets here, Njoku should go nuts since Denver allows the most fantasy points to opposing tight ends.

FanDuel

Taysom Hill (TE – NO): $6,500 at ATL

Nobody will use Hill at $6,500 after his dud before the BYE. That’s silly because Hill was the best tight end in the NFL in the month prior. He had at least 15 FanDuel points in each of his three previous outings, falling just shy of a 20-point average in that span. We don’t mind the fantastic matchup with Atlanta since the Falcons are surrendering the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing tight ends. It’s also a game where New Orleans is favored, and we could also get a few goal-line carries for Hill as well.

Defense/Special Teams

DraftKings

Cincinnati Bengals D/ST: $3,300 vs. PIT

Many people have counted out the Bengals after the Burrow injury, but people are overlooking how special this defense has been. They’ve been a top 10 defense in every metric since Week 4 and have their best matchup of the season. Kenny Pickett looks like the worst quarterback in the NFL, with Cincy entering this game as a 1.5-point home favorite in a game with a 34-point total. That means Pittsburgh is projected to score fewer than 17 points!

FanDuel

Houston Texans D/ST: $3,300 vs. JAC

Houston’s defense has been underrated this season. The Texans rank 14th in total defense, and they’re only getting better with some young pieces growing throughout that unit. What really intrigues us is that Houston is at $3,300, the second-lowest total among all D/STs. That’s hard to understand because Jacksonville owns 23rd OPRK against opposing D/STs, with the Texans totaling 13 FanDuel points in a matchup earlier this season!


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Joel Bartilotta is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Joel, check out his archive and follow him @Bartilottajoel.

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