Welcome to week nine of NFL DFS. Bye weeks have returned and there is a game in Germany this week, so we are back to a 10-game slate.
This article is aimed at deciphering values in the lobbies. It is not meant to be a roster builder. Instead, it will help identify some players priced below their production potential based on various factors for both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Let’s get into it.
NFL Week 9 DFS Value Plays: Targets & Advice (2023)
Quarterbacks
Derek Carr (NO) $5700 vs. CHI (DraftKings)
Gross, I know. I did not plan on being here either, but nevertheless, here we are. Let us begin by establishing that this is meant to be a GPP contest play, as better cash game options are plentiful.
Carr has thrown for over 300 yards in three of his last four games. He’s thrown for multiple touchdowns in two of those games. He also finished as a QB1 in two of those four while finishing 13th overall last week, narrowly missing the cut. It might take him 55 attempts to get there (that’s 5.5 yards per attempt for those using an abacus at home), but he has had the volume.
The Saints take on a Bears defense that is surrendering a gaudy 2.1 passing touchdowns per game average and the fourth-most fantasy points to the position. Over the last eight weeks, they have allowed multiple touchdown passes five times. Heck, in week seven, rookie Aidan O’Connel completed just 10 passes and one of them was a touchdown.
The matchup is good, and Carr has averaged 39.5 passing attempts over his last four games. He might not be the prettiest pony at the fair, but you can still ride him for cheap.
Taylor Heinicke (ATL) $7200 vs. MIN (FanDuel)
It felt like a matter of time before Heinicke got an opportunity to show what he could do under center for the Falcons. The initial opportunity came last week when Desmond Ridder briefly came out of the game to be checked for a concussion. Though cleared, Arthur Smith let Heinicke finish the game. He completed 12 of 21 pass attempts for 175 yards and a score. While far from stellar, Heinicke is a gunslinger type of passer who could ignite the aerial portion of the offense.
The Vikings allow the 12th-most fantasy points and 237.3 passing yards per game. Though a bit more stingy over the last several weeks, they allowed three total touchdowns to quarterbacks over the last three games.
Heinicke is also a GPP option and offers some decent stacking options.
Running Backs
Jonathan Taylor (IND) $6400 vs. CAR (DraftKings)
The ramp-up period is continuing for Taylor, and we are starting to see flashes of how dominant he once was. In week eight, he finished with a season-high 95 rushing yards on only 12 carries. The week before, the Colts doled out 22 touches, which he converted into 120 scrimmage yards and a score. He is averaging 12.6 rushing attempts and four targets per game over the last three weeks.
The Panthers allow the second-most fantasy points to running backs, including 1.7 rushing touchdowns per game.
Yes, there is a pesky Zack Moss ($5800) situation. Moss did well enough filling in for Taylor that he has earned a complimentary role in this offense that offers touchdown vulture opportunities. While either are viable options with touchdown upside, Taylor should see the majority of the work, and with each passing week, he looks more and more like the former overall RB1. For the adventurous, use Taylor in cash and Moss in GPP contests.
Chuba Hubbard (CAR) $6500 vs. IND (FanDuel)
After a string of disappointing games, Miles Sanders has been relegated to a relief role in the Panthers’ backfield. Hubbard was named the starter on Friday and will handle most of the workload. Hubbard has had 16 or more opportunities in three of his last four games. During that stretch, he has averaged 8.05 fantasy points. While not awe-inspiring, each of those matchups were against better-than-average run defenses.
This week, the Panthers battle the Colts, who are allowing the fifth-most fantasy points to running backs. They’ve allowed rushing touchdowns to eight different running backs, three of which scored twice.
It is not a slam dunk play but offers some upside versus a lower rostered percentage for GPP contests.
Wide Receivers
Nico Collins (HOU) $5800 vs. TB (DraftKings)
Rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud played his worst game as a pro last week. The trickle-down effect led Collins to his lowest receiving yards (30) of the season, despite seeing six targets. One game doth not a trend make, and Collins has cleared the double-digit PPR points threshold in four of seven games played. Of those four games, he has cleared 30 PPR points twice.
The Buccaneers are allowing the ninth-most fantasy points to wide receivers. They’re allowing over 180 receiving yards and 0.9 receiving touchdowns to the position.
The Bucs can find ways to score as Baker Mayfield has played better than anticipated. Meanwhile, the Texans primary ball carrier, Dameon Pierce, has been ruled out this week. It is a passing redemption week for Stroud and Collins is on the beneficiary list.
Collins is not a smash start and therefore should be treated as a GPP volume play for this slate.
Michael Pittman Jr. (IND) $7300 vs. CAR (FanDuel)
Pittman has logged double-digit targets in five of eight games this season, including two of the last three. He is averaging 66.1 receiving yards per game and has scored thrice. He has retained his role as the leader of this receiving core regardless of which quarterback has been under center.
The Panthers allow the eighth-fewest fantasy points to the position but are more forgiving against outside receivers. Pittman has been the primary target in heavy zone coverage with a 26% target share. Pittman also leads the team in deep targets, an area in which the Panthers have struggled to cover.
Due to the poor on-paper matchup, Pittman could see a lower rostered percentage for this slate, making him an ideal play for GPPs.
Tight Ends
Jake Ferguson (DAL) $4000 vs. PHI (DraftKings)
This is the kind of matchup that DFS players should target. The 47-point over/under is the highest on the slate. Both offenses offer explosive plays and weapons. Though up and down over his last few games, Ferguson still sits on 11 red zone targets this season. His high-value targets help offset the recent reduction in total targets per game.
The position can beat the Eagles’ secondary. They’re allowing the 13th-most points and have surrendered four touchdowns across seven games.
Between cost and high-value targets, Ferguson is quietly one of the better potential ROI tight ends on this slate. He can be rostered in both cash and GPP contests for this slate.
Kyle Pitts (ATL) $5200 vs. MIN (FanDuel)
This matchup is coming together to be too good to be true for Pitts, which is nerve-wracking at best. The trust factor has not been there between shaky quarterback play and Arthur Smith’s near allergic aversion to a heavy passing scheme. However, the Falcons will be rolling with Heinicke (for at least this game), who is not only more prone to taking shots but also has shown a proclivity to target tight ends. Drake London is out for this game, shrinking target competition.
The Vikings are middle of the pack against tight ends. They allow 36.1 receiving yards per game and 0.4 touchdowns. They did allow 67/1 to Travis Kelce and 78/0 to George Kittle. Otherwise, they have faced middling tight ends like Cade Otton, Gerald Everett, and Robert Tonyan. In other words, the averages are partially skewed.
With a gunslinger under center, reduced target competition, and a mediocre matchup, the needle is pointing up for Pitts this week. Which can only mean that Jonnu Smith ($5000) is going to have himself a game. Be warned.
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John Hesterman is a featured writer and Expert Consensus Ranker at FantasyPros. He also writes for DynastyLeagueFootball.com. For more from John, check out his archive and follow him on Twitter/X @John_Hesterman.
