Welcome, DFS degenerates to Week 13! With six teams on bye, we have a 10-game slate missing some of the usual firepower. This makes crawling through the DFS streets all the more important to find the value plays.
This article is aimed at deciphering values in the lobbies. It is not meant to be a roster builder. Instead, it will help identify some players priced below their production potential based on various factors for both DraftKings and FanDuel.
NFL Week 13 DFS Value Plays: Targets & Advice
Quarterbacks
Russell Wilson has finished in the fringe-QB1 area in three of his last four games. While not being spectacular, he has done enough to win some tough games. He has also put up respectable fantasy points, averaging 17.4 DK points in that span.
There are both good and bad things to unpack with Wilson’s season. He has surpassed 200 passing yards just once since Week 6. That is less than desirable. But he is maintaining a 20:4 touchdown-to-interception ratio, which is pretty spiffy, as the kids say. Between the good and the bad, matchups become integral to deciding where to spend the salary.
The Texans allow an average of 266 passing yards and 1.0 passing touchdowns per game. They are also currently allowing the 10th-most fantasy points to the position.
This is not a smash play by any means. However, it has some intrigue at cost if Wilson can put a big game together while his salary remains sub-$6000 for those who are willing to take a shot. Wilson is a Hail Mary play in GPP contests and has a salary that allows paying up at other positions.
Any guesses as to which quarterback leads the league in passing attempts and yards? Howell’s 486 attempts lead the next man up (Josh Allen) by 53 attempts. His 3,339 passing yards lead C.J. Stroud by 73 yards. The first-year starter is slinging it to all of his skill position players. His 19.2 FD points per game is the fifth-highest among quarterbacks on this slate, while his salary is the eighth-highest this week. Howell has finished as a QB1 in eight of 12 games (66%) played.
The Dolphins allow the ninth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks. Four quarterbacks have thrown for two or more touchdowns against them, and they have allowed three additional rushing scores.
Do we, as a DFS community, expect the Dolphins to score early and often? Yes, we do, which in turn means a near guarantee of 40+ pass attempts for Howell in this matchup. The Commanders get behind in games, and Howell keeps slinging it in an always-down-never-out gusto that is honestly both fun and sometimes frustrating to watch.
Howell lines up well as a GPP quarterback option this week and presents a small range of viable stacking options at varied salaries. His proclivity to turn the ball over adds some risk, lowering his cash contest appeal.
Running Backs
Rachaad White is currently the RB6 in PPR scoring on the season despite having less than 600 rushing yards. He has the third-most receptions (43) and the second-most receiving yards (364) at the position. He has scored double-digit DK points in every contest since Week 6.
How do teams beat the Carolina Panthers? Any way they want. However, opposing teams have typically chosen to establish the run against them. They allow an average of 1.5 rushing touchdowns and 111.8 rushing yards per game. They are currently the third-most friendly team to opposing running backs.
White is usable in both cash and GPP contests this week but could have a roster percentage that favors cash games. He has solidified himself as one of the driving forces of this offense and has finished as an RB1 in four of his last six games.
When Zack Moss was called upon to handle the lead running back role for the Colts, he performed as an old-school bell cow. From Weeks 2 through 6, he averaged 19.2 rush attempts for 93.2 rushing yards and scored five touchdowns on the ground. He finished as the RB10, RB4, RB21, RB2 and RB9 during that stretch.
The Titans have only allowed one running back to clear the 100-yard rushing mark this season: Zack Moss in Week 5, finishing with 165 yards. He is also the only running back to score twice in the same game against them.
Moss will be a chalky running back selection this week due to the lower cost. While he can be used in GPP contests, be aware that his rostership is likely to be high. He is much preferred in cash contests and offers a salary that allows money to be allocated elsewhere.
Wide Receivers
Josh Downs has lacked the consistency that some were hoping for, but has been a bright spot in the Colts’ offense at times. Last week, he tied Michael Pittman Jr. in the target department despite only coming down with five of his 13 targets. He is averaging 10.9 DK points per game. Yes, Pittman Jr. ($7,100) has been the focal point of the passing portion of this offense this season. Still, there are some factors that point to Downs being a sneaky target for DFS lineups in this matchup.
Jonathan Taylor is sidelined for at least a week after sustaining a thumb injury requiring surgery. That puts Moss back in the driver’s seat for the ground attack. Moss destroyed the Titans on the ground in Weel 5 and, as discussed, will be a chalky running back playing at his current salary. However, the Titans have been far more susceptible against the pass, allowing the eighth-most fantasy points to receivers this season. Downs finished with a respectable 6/97/0 line (15.7 DK points) in their last meeting.
Downs is the GPP option for those who do not want to pay up for Pittman Jr. but want a low-risk play that has a high return on investment outlook.
To quote Bruce Arians, “No risk it, no biscuit.” There is plenty of risk in dropping Amari Cooper into lineups for this slate, but there may also be a decent return. Cooper has back-to-back games with less than six FD points. This is true, but it was also while working with a rookie who has only had a handful of starts. He also exited one of those games after a hard hit to the ribs. X-rays were negative, and he does not carry an injury designation heading into this weekend’s games.
Cooper will be catching passes from his fourth quarterback of the season in this matchup. Yes, it has been confirmed that, from his Lazy Boy to the stadium, newly-signed veteran Joe Flacco will be under center this week. Flacco is a grizzled veteran who knows how to target the playmakers… and check the ball down. With a bit of time to establish a rapport with his receivers, Flacco would be a welcomed asset to this receiving corps. However, at this point, we have no idea how the ball will be distributed, how much rust he has to knock off or how well his 38-year-old arm will hold up – all definite risk factors.
The matchup is neutral. The Rams are in the middle of the pack against receivers. They have allowed some production recently and are more susceptible to perimeter receivers.
If all of this is true and the risks have been identified, why include him as a potential value? For one, he will be largely overlooked by the DFS community, making him an ideal candidate for multiple lineup GPP contests. Flacco also elevated the pass-catchers for the Jets in a handful of starts last season. In Flacco’s three starts last season, Garrett Wilson had 214 receiving yards and two scores. Cooper has enough experience to mesh with a competent quarterback. Even with the carousel of quarterbacks he has played with this season, he is averaging 69.5 receiving yards per game.
Cooper is a high-risk, moderate-reward type of play this week. For the more adventurous, Elijah Moore is $6,000.
Tight Ends
You may be wondering, why not just spend up for George Kittle this week? It’s a fair question. However, between Christian McCaffrey, Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel, Kittle can be schemed out in favor of other options. Kittle has been held under 20 receiving yards in four contests this season. So, we move down one spot on the salary bank and look at Sam LaPorta. LaPorta has his team’s second-most targets (77) and the fifth-most among tight ends. He averages seven targets for 49 yards and 13 DK points per game.
The Saints’ defense allows the 10th-most fantasy points to tight ends. They’ve allowed four touchdowns over their last four games.
Between target share, red zone usage and a good matchup, LaPorta is set for another TE1 week this season and is a good bet to score. He can be utilized in cash and GPP contests but will likely be heavily rostered and is recommended more in cash contests.
The Steelers’ first game without Matt Canada as the offensive coordinator yielded productive fruit. It was their first 400-yard game since the 2020 season. Freiermuth was a key player in that offensive production, who turned nine receptions into a career-high 120 receiving yards. It was a rare showing of Kenny Pickett being willing to target players over the middle of the field. Freiermuth finished that game with a 33% target share.
The Cardinals have defended the tight end position better than in previous seasons but remain susceptible to the position. Over their last five games, they have allowed five touchdowns to four different tight ends.
This does not suggest that Freiermuth will repeat anywhere close to where he finished last week. However, in just his second game back from a multi-week injury, he quickly returned to being a focal point of the passing attack, which should continue. If Pickett is good for one touchdown in this game, Freiermuth is statistically more likely to be on the other end of it.
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John Hesterman is a featured writer and Expert Consensus Ranker at FantasyPros. He also writes for DynastyLeagueFootball.com. For more from John, check out his archive and follow him on Twitter/X @John_Hesterman.
