Welcome to Week 18 of the NFL, a pivotal moment for fantasy football enthusiasts as we enter CHAMPIONSHIP WEEK for a small fraction of leagues! In this thrilling and final phase of the season, I’m here to equip you with the latest edition of the 2023 usage report, packed with essential tips for fantasy managers and those looking to get on the wagering/pick action if your league has reached its conclusion.
- 🏈 Waiver Wire Advice
- 📊 Weekly Fantasy Football Expert Rankings
- 🤔 Fantasy Football Start/Sit Advice
- 🔥BettingPros Prizepicks Cheat Sheet
As trade deadlines and leagues have passed, our focus shifted from traditional buy/sell strategies to a “stock up/stock down” approach from Weeks 18 throughout the postseason. Expect direct DFS and Prizepicks advice for those seeking extra excitement beyond season-long leagues if you are no longer in the running, or you are just looking for something extra to enhance your viewing experience.
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Now, let’s dive into the Week 18 Fantasy Football Forecast.
Keep in mind that this week there are certain player performance incentives you’d be wise to take advantage of. I’ll highlight the most actionable ones, but a full article is available here.
Fantasy Football Forecast Week 18
Cleveland Browns
Buy David Njoku, Amari Cooper, Add Cedric Tillman, Hold Jerome Ford, Sell Kareem Hunt
In the Week 17 game against the Jets, the Browns’ running game was led by Jerome Ford with 64 yards on 12 carries. He played 40% of the snaps.
Kareem Hunt added 31 yards and a touchdown on 10 carries (1 target, 4 red-zone carries). He played 37% of the snaps.
Quarterback Joe Flacco completed 19 of 29 passes for 309 yards, with three touchdowns and one interception.
Tight end David Njoku was the top receiver with 134 yards on six receptions (8 targets) with Amari Cooper inactive. Elijah Moore and Ford also contributed significantly, with Moore catching a touchdown (5 for 61 on 6 targets on 2 red-zone targets) and Ford scoring twice on 3 targets and 57 receiving yards.
Rookie Cedric Tillman was also targeted 4 times – thrice in the red zone – but he caught just one pass for 8 yards. He could see an expanded role with Moore potentially out next week after suffering a scary heady injury on Thursday night. Tillman ran the most routes among Browns players in Week 17 while playing 95% of the snaps. David Bell ranked second (58% snap share).
The Browns clinched a playoff spot on Thursday night and the 5 seed after all the games concluded. They will play at Cincy in Week 18. Could be another massive game for Njoku in such a plus-matchup. The Browns’ tight end has been FULLY unlocked with Flacco as his QB. In Flacco’s five starts, Njoku has a 22% target share averaging 9 targets per game. 17.1 expected points per game in half-point scoring. But even before Flacco got there, Njoku had been HEATING up.
Weeks 7-17, Njoku ranked first in expected fantasy points per game at 16.8 among all tight ends.
However, the expectation is they will rest their main guys.
New York Jets
Hold Garrett Wilson, Sell Breece Hall
Breece Hall led the rushing attack with 84 yards on 13 carries, demonstrating effectiveness on the ground. It was another week where Hall dominated with a 71% snap share.
Israel Abanikanda operated as the RB2, seeing work in garbage time with 7 targets, 4 catches and 27 receiving yards. With Dalvin Cook a complete non-factor this season and an impending free agent, Abanikanda is the next man up behind Hall.
Quarterback Trevor Siemian completed 32 out of 45 passes for 261 yards, with one touchdown and one interception. The receiving corps was led by Garrett Wilson, who caught 5 passes for 50 yards out of 10 targets.
Tyler Conklin and Breece Hall also made significant contributions in the passing game, with Hall scoring a receiving touchdown. Conklin went 5-for-5 for 45 receiving yards playing a full-time role (79% snap share) with Jeremy Ruckert injured. Hall caught all 9 of his targets for 42 yards. Hall’s receiving production has been ludicrous with Siemian at quarterback. He has 25 targets in the last 2 games…
Wilson and Hall combined for a whopping 50 targets in the last two weeks.
Xavier Gipson also earned 7 targets.
Gang Green plays at New England in the season’s finale. As good as Hall has looked on the ground the last two weeks, it will be tough to sustain versus the Patriots’ no-run defense. Look to bet the unders on his Week 18 player props.
Detroit Lions
Hold/Buy David Montgomery, Jahmyr Gibbs, Add Jameson Williams
David Montgomery led the rushing attack with 65 yards and a touchdown on 14 carries with 3 red-zone carries. Jahmyr Gibbs also contributed significantly with 43 yards on 15 carries, although he had another massive run wiped off the board because of a holding call. Gibbs played 62% of the snaps to Monty’s 39% snap rate. Gibbs was targeted thrice and totaled 5 opportunities in the red zone.
Quarterback Jared Goff completed 19 of 34 passes for 271 yards, throwing one touchdown and two interceptions.
Amon-Ra St. Brown was the leading receiver with 6 receptions for 90 yards and a touchdown (2 red-zone targets).
Jameson Williams contributed 2 catches for 69 yards on 3 targets. He made a clutch catch in the second half but left the game with an injury shortly after. Another key receiver, Josh Reynolds was targeted twice and made 1 reception for 13 yards.
Sam LaPorta contributed significantly in the receiving department, being targeted 12 times and making 7 receptions for 84 yards.
The Lions host the Vikings in Week 18. Should be a productive game for Vikings slot WRs based on what CeeDee Lamb did against this defense in Week 17. As for the Lions’ offense, here’s what they did when they faced Minnesota earlier this year.
Detroit is in the playoffs but can still get the No. 2 seed with losses by PHI/DAL. Tough sell with those teams’ heavy Week 18 favorites.
Dallas Cowboys
Hold Brandin Cooks, Buy Tony Pollard
Quarterback Dak Prescott completed 26 of 38 passes, accumulating 345 yards with two touchdowns and one interception. The highlight of the passing game was CeeDee Lamb, who had a standout performance with 13 receptions for 227 yards and a touchdown, targeted 17 times. Brandin Cooks also contributed with 5 receptions for 60 yards and a touchdown on 8 targets. Heavily involved downfield with 171 air yards and a 22% target share overall.
Jake Ferguson caught 4 of 6 targets for 33 yards.
The rushing game, led by Tony Pollard with 16 carries for 49 yards, was less dominant but maintained a steady presence. Pollard chipped in 3 targets as well and played a whopping 85% snap share without Rico Dowdle in the lineup. Deuce Vaughn stepped in as the RB2 seizing a 12% snap share.
Dallas heads to Washington in Week 18. Should be a high-scoring affair, which is why I LOVE the MORE THAN on Dak Prescott‘s passing yards projection.
Also, you know that Dallas will be going all out with the No. 2 seed within reach after the Eagles lost to Arizona in Week 17.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Hold Chris Godwin, Mike Evans, Rachaad White
Rachaad White lead the rushing effort with 42 yards on 11 carries. He did lose a fumble. But he still saw the majority of touches and should bounce back in a favorable matchup this week versus Carolina. Their defense has allowed over 130 rushing yards to RBs the last two weeks. The last time White played Carolina, he rushed for 84 yards on the ground.
Chase Edmonds worked in more as a receiver, seeing 6 targets to White’s 4 targets in the passing game.
The passing game, led by Baker Mayfield, saw more success. Mayfield completed 22 of 33 passes for 309 yards, throwing 2 touchdowns and 2 interceptions.
The top receivers included Trey Palmer with 84 yards and a touchdown (5 targets), Chris Godwin with 81 yards and a touchdown (5 targets), and Mike Evans with 70 yards (4 targets). Palmer posted 100-plus air yards.
Godwin has been on a tear the last four weeks, posting target totals of 11, 12, 11 and 5. He has 53-plus yards in all four games.
Cade Otton was also targeted six times but finished with just 2 catches for 10 yards. Tough matchup for him in Week 18.
TB plays at Carolina in Week 18. Luckily for them, even after the loss they remain in the driver’s seat to win the NFC South.
Expect Mayfield to go all out with him having heavy incentives in his contract. Therefore, I am going to take the over on his props this week. He has gone over 232.5 passing yards in three straight games.
Mike Evans went for a whopping 162 yards when he last played the Panthers, and has 70-plus yards in four of his last 6 games played. I like the over at 62.5 receiving yards.
LaVonte David needs 0.5s sack to cash in $150k.
He takes on the Panthers #27 O-Line.
This is a great spot to bet on him to get a sack…
— SAL VETRI (@SalVetriDFS) January 1, 2024
New Orleans Saints
Add Juwan Johnson, Jamaal Williams, Sell Alvin Kamara, Taysom Hill, Buy Chris Olave
The New Orleans Saints rushing game accumulated 108 yards across 35 carries, with Jamaal Williams leading the charge with 58 yards on 19 carries. Alvin Kamara missed most of the game after suffering an injury. Williams was also targeted four times and played the majority of snaps at 57%.
Their passing game, spearheaded by Derek Carr, was more effective, with Carr completing 24 of 32 passes for 197 yards and 2 touchdowns. Taysom Hill also contributed with an 11-yard pass, 2 carries for 1 yard and 2 targets. The top receivers for the Saints were Juwan Johnson with 90 yards and a touchdown on a whopping 12 targets (35% target share) followed by Hill with 30 yards and another touchdown.
Johnson was second in routes run.
Chris Olave underwhelmed with just 3 catches for 26 yards on 6 targets. Led the team in routes run. Would expect him to bounce back versus the Falcons. Cooked them for 114 yards on 7 grabs the last time these teams played.
New Orleans hosts Atlanta in Week 18. They need to win and get help to enter the postseason conversation. Great matchup for Juwan Johnson. Went 4 for 47 yards on 7 targets when these teams met previously.
Baltimore Ravens
Add Justice Hill, Gus Edwards, Buy Rashod Bateman, Hold Isaiah Likely
In Week 17, the Baltimore Ravens showcased a strong offensive performance. Gus Edwards led the rushing attack with 68 yards and a touchdown on 16 carries and 5 red-zone rushes, playing a 54% snap share. Also fumbled. Justice Hill made a significant impact with 48 yards on just three carries, including a long run of 41 yards. Played 35% of the snaps.
Lamar Jackson added 35 rushing yards. In the passing game, Jackson was highly efficient, completing 18 of 21 attempts for 321 yards and five touchdowns.
The receiving corps was led by Zay Flowers with 106 yards and a touchdown on three receptions (3 targets). Justice Hill (5 targets) and Isaiah Likely also contributed to the passing game with touchdowns. Likely only had two receptions on 3 targets, two went for TDs. Second in routes run with a 63% snap share.
Rashod Bateman low-key led the Ravens with 6 targets, catching four for 54 yards. 27% target share while leading the team in routes run.
The Ravens totaled 340 passing yards with six touchdowns, demonstrating a dominant aerial attack.
The No. 1 seed Ravens host the Steelers in Week 18. I’d imagine they do not play their starters with home-field advantage locked up.
If they play anyone, could be Odell Beckham Jr. He’s 5 catches away from an extra $250K. But as a veteran who has been careful with snaps/playing time, I think he might just rest.
However, John Harbaugh has been vocal about not repeating the same mistakes as the 2019 season, when he rested his guys with a bye week, and the team came out FLAT in the Divisional Round, losing to the Tennessee Titans.
Do not think that Baltimore will necessarily just lay down against a division-rival Steelers team at home as 4-point dogs.
Miami Dolphins
Sell Raheem Mostert, Add Jeff Wilson Jr., Add Cedrick Wilson
Miami Dolphins a productive running game, led by Devon Achane with 107 yards on 14 carries (7.6 yards per carry. The rookie earned 4 opportunities in the red zone with Raheem Mostert out entirely.
The team’s overall rushing performance was impressive, accumulating 154 yards. Jeff Wilson Jr. had 3 carries for 21 yards and had 4 targets, while also seeing 2 red-zone carries. Wilson also led the Dolphins backfield in routes run at 25 compared to Achane’s 19. Snaps were 49% for Wilson and 48% for Achane.
However, should be noted that in the first half, it was all Achane. 10 carries versus Wilson’s 1. 12 to 3 in total touches.
Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa completed 22 out of 38 passes for 237 yards, throwing two touchdowns and two interceptions.
Tyreek Hill was the leading receiver with 76 yards on six receptions on 12 targets. He is 248 yards from the record. Coming off his worst game to date filled with drops, he seems very motivated to bounce back this week versus the Bills.
The Dolphins’ passing attack was distributed among various targets, with Durham Smythe also contributing significantly with 54 receiving yards on 3 catches and 3 targets. Achane was used as a receiver with 4 catches on 5 targets for 30 yards and 1 TD.
Cedrick Wilson – stepping in for Jaylen Waddle – also scored on 1 of his 4 targets. Played 86% of the snaps and led Miami in routes run.
Miami hosts the Bills in Week 18. This game will be for the AFC East crown and home playoff game appearance.
Buffalo Bills
Hold/Sell James Cook, Sell Stefon Diggs, Gabe Davis, Buy Dalton Kincaid
James Cook led the rushing efforts with 48 yards on 16 carries, but no touchdowns despite 4 rushes in the red zone. He also had just one catch for -4 yards. Receiving usage has fallen off dramatically in the last two games. Played 55% of the snaps.
Quarterback Josh Allen also contributed significantly to the running game, carrying the ball 11 times for 44 yards and scoring two touchdowns on 6 red-zone rushes.
Ty Johnson added 22 yards over five carries on a 19% snap rate, 6 fewer snaps than Latavius Murray at 28%. In the passing department, Allen completed 15 of 30 attempts for 169 yards, but he was intercepted once and managed no passing touchdowns.
Dalton Kincaid was the leading receiver, catching four of seven targets for 87 yards. Usage was back up to a high route participation at nearly 80% along with a 55% snap share. He saw over 120 air yards with a 25% target share.
Stefon Diggs and Khalil Shakir also contributed to the receiving game but without touchdowns. Diggs was an afterthought with 7 targets but just 4 catches for 26 yards.
Diggs continues to see a high target share, but to no avail. His snaps are dwindling at his latest of 65% and he tied for third in routes run behind Davis and Kincaid. Saw over 100 air yards but it didn’t matter.
Take the LESS THAN on Diggs’ 64.5 receiving yards prop on Prizepicks in Week 18. Gone UNDER this in 6 of his last 7 games.
Shakir caught all 4 of his targets for 39 yards while playing more snaps than Diggs at 80%. Gabe Davis busted with 2 catches for 21 yards on 3 targets despite leading the team in routes and snaps among WRs.
The Bills play at Miami in Week 18. This game will be for the AFC East crown and home playoff game appearance.
New England Patriots
Hold Ezekiel Elliott, Demario Douglas, DeVante Parker, Mike Gesicki
Ezekiel Elliott and Bailey Zappe scored rushing touchdowns. Zeke rushed for just 39 yards on 14 carries on another elite snap share at 81%. And he oddly only had 2 targets. Kevin Harris saw 2 carries for 15 yards (long of 15) while drawing 2 targets as well. The receiving corps was led by Harris with 54 yards on two catches, followed by Jalen Reagor and Mike Gesicki (6 targets). Reagor caught one pass for 39 yards and returned the opening kickoff for a TD.
Demario Douglas caught 3 balls for 31 yards on 5 targets while chipping in 3 carries. 33% air yards share. But more importantly, he played 94% of the snaps and lead the team in routes run. Jalen Reagor was second in routes followed by Tyquan Thornton. DeVante Parker got hurt…again.
Zappe, however, struggled in the passing game, completing 16 of 26 passes for 209 yards but throwing three interceptions.
The Patriots play at home versus the Jets in Week 18. The 2-3-4 draft selections are all up for grabs.
Tennessee Titans
Add Chigoziem Okonkwo, Buy DeAndre Hopkins, Sell Derrick Henry
The Big Dog, Derrick Henry, was held in check to just 42 rushing yards on 12 carries in a brutal matchup. Tyjae Spears had 0 yards on 6 carries. Spears out-snapped Henry 62% to 42% as the team was in negative game script. In those games, Spears runs more routes and plays more.
Will Levis got hurt, so Ryan Tannehill stepped in.
DeAndre Hopkins caught all 7 of his targets for 72 yards with a 28% target share. Spears was second with 6 targets (24%), with the Titans trailing nearly the entire game. Chig Okonkwo saw 4 targets, playing 75% of the snaps. Ran a route on 81% of the dropbacks. Jacksonville ranks dead last in yards per target versus tight ends this season.
Chris Moore led the team with a 41% air yards share as the WR3 in snaps/routes.
The Titans host the Jags in Week 18.
They have been eliminated.
But Hopkins is 7 catches, 40 yards and 2 TDs away from an extra $750K in his contract. Expect him to get FED in an uber-friendly matchup versus the Jaguars horrible secondary. Second-most fantasy points allowed to perimeter WRs this season.
He went 4 for 59 yards on 5 targets the last time he played the Jaguars this season.
But pound the under on Henry’s Week 18 rushing props, even at home. He was held to 38 yards the last time he faced the Jaguars this season.
Houston Texans
Add Dalton Schultz, John Metchie, Buy Devin Singletary
Devin Singletary led the rushing attack with 16 carries for 80 yards while catching all 3 of his targets for 6 yards. Played 62% of the snaps.
The team’s overall rushing efforts amounted to 111 yards with a 3.7 average per carry. Dameon Pierce added 8 carries for 16 yards on a 20% snap share.
Quarterback C.J. Stroud was efficient in the passing game, completing 24 out of 32 passes for 213 yards and one touchdown, achieving a passer rating of 102.7. Nico Collins was the top receiver, catching 7 passes for 80 yards on a team-leading 8 targets. 33% air yard share and 26% target share. He ran a route on 71% of the dropbacks.
Nobody else saw more than 4 targets (Dalton Schultz, Robert Woods). Brevin Jordan scored the lone Stroud TD.
Noah Brown barely played, running just 5 routes. Seven snaps in total played after leaving the game with a hip injury. John Metchie III played the most snaps in relief at 61%.
Schultz can reach a $250k bonus for 60 receptions – Currently at 54 receptions. Might opt for the overs on his receptions. He played 79% of the snaps and ran a route on 71% of the dropbacks. The Colts are allowing the 5th-most targets to tight ends this season.
The Texans play at the Colts in Week 18. A win will get the Texans into the postseason. The game is win and in.
Singletary is already in a dream matchup and is 165 rushing yards away from a contract bonus. Not impossible, but he’s likely going to get fed touches. The Colts’ defense cannot stop the run, even after they got Grover Stewart back from suspension. They have allowed the 5th-most rushing yards per game to RBs this season. The last 7 RBs they have faced have gone for at least 70 rushing yards.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Buy Travis Etienne, Calvin Ridley, Add Zay Jones
Jacksonville Jaguars showcased a balanced offense with a strong emphasis on the running game. Travis Etienne Jr. led the rushing attack with 102 yards and two touchdowns on 16 carries – saw 2 targets – including a long run of 62 yards on a 62% snap share. Tank Bigsby played more than normal, seeing 10 carries for 32 yards with a 27% snap share. 3 red zone carries for each Jags RB. D’Ernest Johnson also had 2 red-zone carries himself.
Quarterback C.J. Beathard completed 17 of 24 pass attempts for 178 yards, with Evan Engram being the top receiver, catching all 6 targets for 60 yards.
Jamal Agnew also contributed significantly with 53 receiving yards on just 2 catches. Calvin Ridley does what Ridley usually does. Busts despite great usage. 8 targets. 4 catches for 39 yards. 35% target share.
However, the matchup is so good for him in Week 18 that we should expect a bounce-back effort for Ridley.
Tim Jones, Parker Washington and Elijah Cooks all split snaps /routes as the WR2 with Zay Jones inactive. Jones played the most WR snaps.
The Jags play at TEN in Week 18. They are in a win and in a playoff scenario.
Carolina Panthers
Add D.J. Chark, Hold Chuba Hubbard, Sell Jonathan Mingo, Adam Thielen
Chuba Hubbard led the rushing efforts with 11 carries for 45 yards (6 targets). Miles Sanders had 2 carries. Hubbard played 70% of the snaps.
Bryce Young, the quarterback, completed 19 out of 32 pass attempts for 112 yards but was intercepted once and didn’t throw any touchdowns. Adam Thielen was the most targeted receiver with 6 catches for 38 yards on 6 targets.
Despite multiple receivers being involved, the Panthers struggled to generate significant offensive yardage, highlighting challenges in their passing game. D.J. Chark was a mega disappointment, drawing 6 targets but catching one for 18 yards. Woof. 139 air yards (56% air yards share) and a 19% target share for 1 catch. Jonathan Mingo, Thielen and Chark were all starters in 11 personnel.
Chark also had a 30-yard catch reversed to an incompletion.
Tampa Bay plays at Carolina in Week 18. With their Week 17 loss, they locked in the No. 1 overall pick for the Chicago Bears.
Las Vegas Raiders
Hold Davante Adams, Sell Jakobi Meyers, Add Zamir White
Las Vegas Raiders’ offense was highlighted by their passing game. Quarterback Aidan O’Connell completed 30 out of 47 passes for 299 yards and 2 touchdowns, earning a passer rating of 96.0. He threw a pick-six that was negated because of a penalty.
The running game accumulated 84 yards over 25 carries, averaging 3.0 yards per attempt, with Zamir White leading the charge with 71 yards on 20 carries. White was also targeted 6 times and played 57% of the snaps. Ameer Abdullah played 40% of the empty calorie snaps while running more routes than White (23 vs 18). With the Raiders out of the playoffs, Josh Jacobs likely won’t play again this season.
Austin Hooper earned 3 targets, catching all 3 for 28 yards. Tre Tucker saw 5 targets operating as the clear-cut WR3 with a 69% snap share. Earned over 100 air yards.
The receiving corps was paced by Davante Adams, who caught 13 passes for 126 yards and 2 touchdowns, and targeted a notable 21 times. 5 red-zone targets. 224 air yards.
Madness.
Jakobi Meyers saw 10 targets, catching 6 for 56 yards.
LV hosts Denver in Week 18. Neither team is in playoff contention.
Indianapolis Colts
Sell Jonathan Taylor, Buy Michael Pittman Jr., Avoid Josh Downs, Avoid Alec Pierce
Jonathan Taylor led the rushing game with 96 yards and a touchdown on 21 carries. Trey Sermon had 5 carries for 32 yards on a 32% snap rate. JT had only 1 target and played 62% of the snaps. He only ran a route on half the dropbacks.
Quarterback Gardner Minshew completed 15 out of 23 passes for 224 yards and one touchdown, achieving a passer rating of 111.5.
The receiving game saw Alec Pierce make a significant impact with a 58-yard touchdown reception. He only had 1 target. Michael Pittman Jr. also contributed with 46 receiving yards on 5 catches from 7 targets.
Josh Downs made a 50-yard catch but saw just one more target after that. The role was limited to just a sub 50% route participation.
The Colts play the Texans at home in Week 18. The Colts make the playoffs if they beat the Texans next Sunday and the Jaguars lose to Tennessee.
Regardless, I am fading JT’s rushing prop this week on Prizepicks. First off, Zack Moss might return after getting in limited practice last week.
The Texans have not allowed a 100-yard rusher this season. They are a horrible matchup for RBs this season allowing just 69 yards per game to all opposing RBs – 4th-best. No RB they have faced as gone for 80 yards since…Week 3.
Smash the UNDER on Taylor’s 80.5 rushing yards prop. He’s hit that number twice this season. Conversely, take the OVER on Michael Pittman and Gardner Minshew’s receiving/passing yardage props.
The Texans are elite versus the run, but horrible versus the pass. 7th-most passing yards allowed per game this season at 267. Since Week 5, 8 of the last 12 QBs they have faced have thrown for over 232.5 passing yards. Last four weeks, they are allowing over 250 yards passing per game.
A solid game for Minshew through the air will likely be accompanied by a big Pittman game. Pittman is the team’s target hog and has gone over 74.5yards in five of his last 6 games. The Texans’ defense is the second-worst secondary against No. 1 WRs, allowing over 88 yards per game to opposing alphas.
Chicago Bears
Add Khalil Herbert, Roschon Johnson
Khalil Herbert led the team with 124 yards and a touchdown on 18 carries. Roschon Johnson was the RB2 with D’Onta Foreman inactive totaling 21 yards on 7 carries. Both RBs also saw 3 targets and tallied 2 carries inside the red zone.
It was a complete 50/50 split, as Herbert played 50% of the snaps to Johnson’s 49% snap share. Routes were also split. Herbert led the first-half carries, 8 vs. 2.
Quarterback Justin Fields also contributed significantly with 45 rushing yards and a touchdown. Through the air, Fields completed 20 out of 32 passes for 268 yards and a touchdown, achieving a passer rating of 99.5. The Bears’ receiving corps was led by D.J. Moore, who had 159 receiving yards and a touchdown on 9 receptions from 13 targets (2 red-zone targets). 43% target share.
Cole Kmet was active, but was not targeted as he only played 18% of the snaps. Came into the week extremely questionable. Robert Tonyan saw 4 targets in his increased tight end role with a 66% snap share. Tyler Scott saw 5 targets with Darnell Mooney out (2 red-zone targets).
The Bears play at GB in Week 18. They have been eliminated from the playoff contention, despite the Week 17 win. But they may still throw everything at GB to play spoiler, especially with Fields’ future in Chicago up in the air.
Atlanta Falcons
Buy Kyle Pitts, Bijan Robinson, Drake London
The running game was effective, with the team totaling 134 rushing yards. Bijan Robinson Jr. led with 75 yards on 15 carries, while quarterback Taylor Heinicke added a touchdown and 46 rushing yards. However, the passing game struggled, with Heinicke completing only 10 of 29 passes for 163 yards, a touchdown, and three interceptions. Desmond Ridder also saw action in garbage time after Heinicke was ruled out with an injury, but he threw an interception on his three completions. Tyler Allgeier recorded a 75-yard touchdown reception on just a 19% snap share. Of course, he did.
Bijan saw his receiving usage dip to just 3 catches for 11 yards on 4 targets despite 30 routes run. Still played 76% of the snaps.
Would like to confidently bet his rushing yards over versus a reeling Saints run defense, but the usage of Robinson under Arthur Smith is impossible to predict confidently.
Drake London saw a whopping 10 targets, catching just 4 for 56 yards. 112 air yards and a 31% target share.
Kyle Pitts, 5 targets and 1 catch for 5 yards. Woof. Still, he is primed for a bounce-back in a tight end-plus matchup this week.
The Falcons play at New Orleans in Week 18. The Saints are motivated to win, and Atlanta can sneak in with a win and Buccaneers’ loss. Still, can’t help Arthur Smith wants to end the season on a high note.
Arizona Cardinals
Add Michael Wilson, Hold James Conner
James Conner led the rushing attack with 128 yards and a touchdown on 26 carries. Totaled 9 red-zone touches. 66% snap share.
But he only saw one target as he lost receiving work to Michael Carter (who also caught a TD) and Emari Demercado. But Conner made that one target count, hauling in a beautiful one-handed grab in the end zone.
Kyler Murray also contributed significantly, completing 25 out of 31 passes for 232 yards, throwing 3 touchdowns, and rushing for 24 yards.
The receiving effort was led by Greg Dortch with 82 yards on 7 receptions. Trey McBride also earned 7 targets, catching 6 for 48 yards.
Rookie Michael Wilson scored a touchdown on 4 catches for 35 yards and 6 targets (2 red-zone targets). He commanded a 35% air yards share. He played the most WR snaps at 86% and tied McBride for the most routes run at 94%.
Arizona hosts Seattle in Week 18. Conner should run wild against their horrible run defense.
Philadelphia Eagles
Buy/Hold D’Andre Swift, Add Julio Jones
Their rushing attack was led by D’Andre Swift with 61 yards on 13 carries. Kenneth Gainwell totaled just 2 carries and was targeted four times. Swift had 1 target. Gainwell also out-snapped Swift, 53% to 47%.
Jalen Hurts had a productive day in the passing game, completing 18 of 23 passes for 167 yards and 3 touchdowns. The receiving corps was led by A.J. Brown with 53 yards (5 targets) and Dallas Goedert, who caught a touchdown pass among his 47 receiving yards (6 targets).
Devonta Smith was seen in a walking boot after the game. Julio Jones scored on both of his 2 targets. Go figure. He ran just two fewer routes than Smith. If Smith misses time, expect AJB WR1 and DG to feast.
The Eagles play at NYG in Week 18, and no longer control their destiny to win the NFC East after dropping to the Cardinals. They need a win and a Dallas loss to get the No. 2 seed.
New York Giants
Add Wan’Dale Robinson/Darius Slayton, Sell Saquon Barkley, Buy Darren Waller
Their rushing attack, led by Tyrod Taylor and Saquon Barkley, accumulated 105 yards with Wan’Dale Robinson scoring a touchdown. Still, Barkley only got 39 rushing yards in a tough matchup on 12 carries despite playing 89% of the snaps.
Robinson led with the most targets (9, 23% target share) going 6 for 55 followed by Darren Waller (6) and Barkley (6).
Daniel Bellinger was also targeted four times. But Waller’s routes were back up to a full-time role, as he ran a route on 40 of 50 Taylor’s dropbacks (80%). Giants had 4 players at 80% or higher route participation.
Tyrod Taylor also led in passing, completing 27 out of 41 attempts for 319 yards, including one touchdown and one interception.
Darius Slayton was the top receiver, catching 4 passes for 106 yards and a touchdown on 6 targets. 114 air yards. He, Robinson and Jalin Hyatt were all full-time starters in 3 WR sets. Hyatt caught a 47-yard pass from Taylor, but it was called back because of a holding penalty.
The Giants host Philly in Week 18
Los Angeles Rams
Add Ronnie Rivers, TuTu Atwell, Carson Wentz
Kyren Williams had 20 carries for 87 yards and scored three touchdowns (2 targets). The Rams’ passing game, helmed by Matthew Stafford, contributed significantly with 317 yards. Stafford completed 24 out of 34 attempts, throwing one touchdown and two interceptions.
Puka Nacua was the leading receiver, catching 5 passes for 118 yards on 8 targets. Demarcus Robinson led the Rams with 10 targets, going 6 for 92 receiving yards. Had over 100 air yards and a 29% target share. He also fumbled twice.
Then it was Tyler Higbee with 7, then Cooper Kupp with 6 targets, but he did score on 4 catches for 27 yards.
The Rams play at the 49ers in Week 18.
The 49ers will have nothing to play for and the Rams have already clinched a playoff spot. Ergo, neither team has much to play for. Sean McVay always rests his starters in the preseason, so I’d expect something similar this week.
Could see a pretty involved week for the No. 1 backups between TuTu Atwell and Ronnie Rivers if Carson Wentz starts.
The 49ers are expected to play their healthy starters for a “good bit” versus the Rams.
San Francisco 49ers
Add Elijah Mitchell, Ronnie Bell, Sam Darnold
The San Francisco 49ers had a strong running game, accumulating 184 yards over 39 carries. Elijah Mitchell led with 80 yards on 17 carries, scoring one touchdown on 1 of 6 red-zone carries. Christian McCaffrey also contributed with 64 yards after injuring his calf. He caught 4 passes on 5 targets. He will not play in Week 18.
In the passing game, Brock Purdy completed 22 of 28 passes for 230 yards and two touchdowns, achieving a high passer rating of 124.7.
Brandon Aiyuk was the top receiver with 114 yards on 7 receptions, including a touchdown. 8 targets. 30% target share.
Deebo Samuel also found the end zone and contributed both in the receiving and rushing departments. 3 carries for 35 yards/5 catches for 37 yards and 1 TD. 5 red zone targets.
George Kittle was not heavily used, catching just 3 passes for 29 yards on 4 targets.
SF hosts the LA Rams in Week 18. They have locked up the No. 1 seed, so I doubt we see them play their starters in Week 18.
Washington Commanders
Sell Curtis Samuel, Terry McLaurin
Brian Robinson Jr. led the ground game with 44 yards on 9 carries after missing the last few games with a hamstring injury. B-Rob caught all four of his targets for 32 yards and totaled 4 red-zone carries while playing 54% of the snaps.
Antonio Gibson had just 4 carries and 4 targets on a 43% snap rate.
Quarterback Sam Howell completed 17 of 28 passes for 169 yards, with one touchdown and two interceptions. His main target was Terry McLaurin, who caught 4 passes for 61 yards and a touchdown on a team-high 6 targets (2 red-zone targets). He also saw the majority of air yards with a dominant 61% air yards share.
The Commanders struggled to find consistency in their passing game, as evidenced by Howell’s two interceptions and a passer rating of 60.0.
The target share was flat, with Curtis Samuel, and Logan Thomas both seeing 4 targets. Samuel ran a route on just 62% of the dropbacks.
Washington hosts Dallas in Week 18.
Los Angeles Chargers
Buy Austin Ekeler, Avoid Quentin Johnston, Add Joshua Palmer, Gerald Everett
Austin Ekeler led the rushing attack with 46 yards on 13 carries. He was targeted twice.
Quarterback Easton Stick contributed both in the air and on the ground, passing for 220 yards and rushing for 31 yards.
Alex Erickson was the leading receiver, catching 7 passes for 98 yards on 8 targets.
Is Quentin Johnston actually this bad? Yes. 3 for 29 yards on 6 targets.
No Mike Williams, or Keenan Allen and this rookie has done nothing with his opportunities this season. He was out-targeted by Erickson and Keelan Doss (8 targets) in Week 18. Woof. These guys were the 3 full-time WR starters.
Gerald Everett led the team in targets with 9 but ended with just 4 catches for 31 yards. 24% target share as he remains Stick’s favorite target in the passing game.
The Chargers’ offense totaled 86 rushing yards and 220 passing yards, with Stick completing 24 out of 38 passes. The team’s performance was a combination of ground and aerial plays.
LAC hosts KC in Week 18.
Likely the last game for Ekeler as a Charger. Could see him go out on a high note. $100k bonus for rushing and receiving 1125 yards – currently at 1010 yards.
Denver Broncos
Buy Javonte Williams, Hold Jerry Jeudy
Javonte Williams led the way with 41 yards on 15 carries while playing 45% of the offensive snaps. Jaleel McLaughlin tallied 8 carries for 44 yards and Samaje Perine went 4 for 10 yards. McLaughlin and Williams both saw 3 targets while Perine was targeted twice.
Quarterback Jarrett Stidham added to the offense, throwing for 224 yards and a touchdown on 20 completions out of 32 attempts. He rushed six times for six yards. Also had another 11-yard rush called back due to holding.
The receiving corps was led by Lil’Jordan Humphrey with 69 yards and a touchdown on 4 targets. He saw 90 air yards.
Jerry Jeudy was the target leader (7, 20% target share, 30% target rate per route run) tied with Brandon Johnson. Jeudy caught 3 passes for 54 yards. He was targeted 5 times in the first half.
Also picked up a DPI call on a deep pass and had another pass called back because of holding. BJ went 4 for 27 yards while leading the team in routes run and snaps played.
Jeudy played fewer than 50% of the snaps and ran a route on 64% of the dropbacks.
Denver plays at LV in Week 18.
Seattle Seahawks
Hold Kenneth Walker, Buy Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Sell Tyler Lockett
The running game was effective in Week 17, with Kenneth Walker III leading the way with 53 yards and a touchdown on 10 carries with 2 red-zone carries. Zach Charbonnet only had 2 carries. However, Walker was an afterthought in the receiving game usage-wise. He caught 3 targets for 22 yards, while Charbonnet was targeted 5 times for 39 yards. He did miss time toward the end of the game as he battles through a shoulder injury.
Snap shares were 57% for Charbonnet and 43% for Walker.
Geno Smith, the quarterback, also contributed significantly with 33 rushing yards.
Smith had an efficient passing day, completing 23 of 33 passes for 290 yards and a touchdown, without any interceptions.
The receiving corps was led by DK Metcalf, who had 106 receiving yards on 5 catches and 8 targets.
Noah Fant was second with 6 targets, catching 5 for 59 yards. Jaxon Smith-Njigba caught a TD on one of 2 targets. Tyler Lockett’s inefficiency came to a horrible finish in Week 17, as he caught just one pass for 10 yards on 5 targets. The veteran is past his prime and he showed it all year long with his very inconsistent play.
Seattle plays at Arizona in Week 18. They need to win and get help to enter the playoffs. If Seattle makes the playoffs, Geno get a $2M bonus.
The Seahawks will make the playoffs if one of these three scenarios plays out per the team’s official website.
- Seahawks win and Green Bay loses or ties.
- Seahawks tie and Green Bay loses and Tampa Bay loses or ties.
- Seahawks tie and Green Bay loses and New Orleans loses or ties.
I like their chances, especially when it comes to them riding their star RB, Kenneth Walker – presuming health in a must win game. His rushing prop is too low at 62.5 rushing yards this week on Prizepicks. Arizona is horrible versus the run. Most rushing yards allowed this season to opposing RBs. They have allowed at least 61 yards to the last 7 RBs they have faced this season.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Hold Diontae Johnson, Jaylen Warren, Najee Harris, Buy George Pickens
In their Week 17 game, the Pittsburgh Steelers displayed a strong running game with Najee Harris rushing for 122 yards and two touchdowns on 27 carries and 11 red-zone carries. He was not targeted.
Jaylen Warren also contributed significantly with 75 yards and a touchdown on 13 carries. He also added 4 catches on 4 targets for 23 yards. Totaled 6 touches in the red zone.
Warren played 54% of the snaps to Najee Harris’ 53% snap share.
Quarterback Mason Rudolph was efficient, completing 18 of 24 passes for 274 yards, with no touchdowns or interceptions.
George Pickens led the receiving corps with 131 yards on seven receptions on a team-high 9 targets. 43% target share. No. 1 in weighted opportunity in Week 17.
Diontae Johnson was efficient on four targets, catching all four for 76 yards. Pat Freiermuth was the next move involved pass-catcher, catching 3 of 4 targets for 44 yards. Odd that DJ only played 58% of the snaps.
Pittsburgh plays against the Ravens on the road in Week 18. The Ravens have nothing to play for, while the Steelers are fighting for their playoff lives. Rudolph has already been announced as the starter for Week 18.
Kansas City Chiefs
Buy Rashee Rice, Isiah Pacheco
The Kansas City Chiefs showcased a strong running game, led by Isiah Pacheco with 130 yards on 18 carries. He also saw a team-high 7 targets along with 3 in the red zone and 4 red-zone rushes. Pacheco played 93% of the snaps. Clearly, health was no issue.
Quarterback Patrick Mahomes contributed both on the ground and through the air, throwing for 245 yards and a touchdown while also rushing for 2 yards.
Rashee Rice was the top receiver with 127 yards on 5 catches on 6 targets (21% target share). Super-efficient.
Travis Kelce was held to just 3 catches for 16 yards on 4 targets.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling was next in WR routes and snaps played.
KC plays versus the Chargers in Week 18. KC had clinched the No. 3 seed in the playoffs, and it would make sense for them to rest their starters with nothing to play for. Although the lack of offensive momentum they have gives slight pause for them to completely punt Week 18.
Cincinnati Bengals
Hold Joe Mixon, Add Chase Brown, Tanner Hudson
Joe Mixon led the rushing attack with 65 yards on 21 carries, and quarterback Jake Browning contributed 32 yards on the ground, including a touchdown on one of 7 red-zone rushes. Chase Brown had 3 carries for 5 yards. Mixon was also targeted four times (two red-zone) for 22 yards and 1 TD.
Browning also managed 197 passing yards with one touchdown, completing 19 out of 33 passes.
The Bengals’ receiving corps was led by Ja’Marr Chase with 41 yards on just 7 targets (81 air yards). Chase hardly backed up his smack talk prior to this Week 17 contest.
Tanner Hudson also earned 7 targets (23% target share). Caught 3 for 38 yards. But for the second straight game, the usage was favorable as he ran 28 routes (62%).
Tee Higgins got hurt during the game and had one catch all game for 19 yards.
The Bengals host the Browns in Week 18. The Bengals have been eliminated from the playoffs after their loss to KC. Neither team has “anything” to play for. Would imagine the Bengals rest any guys that are dealing with injuries.
Rookie Andre Iosivas could play more snaps if any of the top WRs misses the game. Two weeks removed from 4 receptions for 36 yards on 8 targets. Saw the biggest bump as Chase’s 1-for-1 backup in Week 16.
Minnesota Vikings
Sell Ty Chandler, Buy Jonny Mundt
The Vikings got smoked on SNF with Jaren Hall getting benched. He was replaced by Nick Mullens with no success.
Ty Chandler led the backfield still with 10 carries for 40 yards. Added three targets and led the backfield with 2 red-zone carries and a red-zone target.
Alexander Mattison was still RB2 and ran more routes than Chandler, which explains the snap shares of 57% versus 40%. Sucks for him as that might cause him to miss a $250k bonus for 750 rushing yards – Currently sitting at 659 yards.
Justin Jefferson went 5 for 59 on 10 targets – four red-zone targets – followed by Jonny Mundt (4 for 39) on 7 targets (23% target share) and 2 red-zone targets with a TD score. He filled in for the injured T.J. Hockenson.
Jordan Addison was targeted 5 times for 28 yards and 3 catches (31% air yards share). K.J. Osborn goose egged on a 62% snap share.
Minnesota plays the Lions in Week 18. They are not eliminated from the playoffs. But it’s a long shot. They’ll have to beat the Lions and have the Packers and Seahawks lose and have either the Buccaneers or Saints lose, too.
Green Bay Packers
Hold Jayden Reed, Aaron Jones, Add Tucker Kraft, Bo Melton
In Week 17, the Green Bay Packers showcased a strong offensive performance. Aaron Jones led the rushing attack with 120 yards on 20 carries against a strong run defense (1 target, 57% snap share). A.J. Dillon had 7 carries for 27 yards. All 3 of the Packers RBs saw two red-zone carries.
The team totaled 177 rushing yards, with a key touchdown from quarterback Jordan Love. Love also excelled in passing, throwing for 256 yards and three touchdowns, completing 24 out of 33 attempts.
The receiving group was led by Bo Melton with 105 yards and a touchdown on a team-high 9 targets and 6 catches (2 red-zone targets). Totaled a 26% target share and over 100 air yards. Melton finished with 24 routes run, second behind only Romeo Doubs (29).
Jayden Reed scored twice on 6 catches for 89 yards and 8 targets, but he left the game with an injury. Still earned over 140 air yards with a 24% target share to boot.
Tucker Kraft caught all 6 of his targets for 48 yards. Spoiler. He’s better than Luke Musgrave. Romeo Doubs also had 6 targets but finished with just 3 catches.
GB hosts the Bears in Week 18. They clinch a wild-card birth with a win. Love also gets an extra $500K if they make the playoffs.
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