IT’S PLAYOFF FOOTBALL TIME, BABY! Now, the season after the season begins. Anything can happen in the playoffs. We have seen in previous years Cinderella teams keep the magic going and advance deep into the playoffs. We have also witnessed NFL Goliaths get trounced by lowly-seeded teams. My body is ready for the chaos.
The chaos of injuries and a playoff slate that extends across three days should make it a wonderful DFS slate for us to get different with our lineups. Embrace variance. Embrace the wildness of playoff DFS. Again, if I didn’t write up a particular player for this week’s Primer, it’s because I don’t like their outlook and won’t be playing them in DFS. It’s time to build some lineups.
Here is the complete Super Wild Card Weekend Primer. Below we dive into Dolphins vs. Chiefs.
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DFS Primer: Wild Card Weekend
Miami Dolphins vs. Kansas City Chiefs
- KC -4, O/U 43.5
- Dolphins vs. Chiefs Player Prop Bets via BettingPros
Quarterbacks
Tua Tagovailoa: Tagovailoa had a tough day the last time he faced this pass defense, finishing with only 12.4 fantasy points, 193 passing yards, and 5.7 yards per attempt. Toss his full-season stats out the window. Since Week 14 among 29 qualifying quarterbacks, he has still been playing pretty good football while not up to the level his full-season numbers might suggest. He has ranked 13th in yards per attempt, 16th in CPOE, and eighth in highly accurate throw rate, but sadly, he has only been 24th in fantasy points per dropback. Evaluating the strength of the Chiefs’ pass defense is tough because they have been playing pushover quarterbacks since Week 15 with games against Bailey Zappe, Aidan O’Connell, Jake Browning, and Easton Stick. To their credit, they have played well against the last three good quarterbacks they have played Ja:len Hurts, Josh Allen, and Jordan Love. Against that trio, they allowed only 6.5 yards per attempt, a -2.8% CPOE, and only a 70.7% adjusted completion rate. Tagovailoa is in play for large-field GPPs or MME only.
Patrick Mahomes: Mahomes has not been Mahomes this season. The stats have been depressed. The play has been shaky, BUT this is the season after the season. The playoffs are a different beast entirely and I won’t fade Mahomes on a six gamer especially when he won’t be popular. Since Week 8 among 41 qualifying quarterbacks, he has ranked 26th in yards per attempt, 16th in passing yards per game, and 23rd in passer rating. During this stretch he has had to suffer through the third-highest drop rate and lose the most yards due to drops. It has been brutal for Mahomes. Mahomes’ rushing upside in the playoffs has historically helped his fantasy output. During his career in the regular season, he has averaged 3.8 rushing attempts and 20.2 rushing yards per game. In the postseason, those numbers climb to 4.78 rushing attempts per game and 27.3 rushing yards. That might not sound like much but in 29% of his postseason games he has rushed for at least 44 yards. If we drop that number to 29 yards then his hit rate climbs to 50%. The Dolphins have been vulnerable to the pass since Week 13 allowing the fourth highest yards per attempt, fourth-most passing touchdowns, the 11th-highest passer rating, and the fifth-highest CPOE. Since Week 13, Miami has utilized Cover 3 or Cover 6 on 53.6% of their defensive snaps. Against those two coverage types this season, among 35 qualifying quarterbacks, Mahomes ranks 11th in passer rating, ninth in adjusted completion rate, and 12th in fantasy points per dropback.
Running Backs
Raheem Mostert: Assuming Mostert is back this week, he should be the clear lead back in a smash spot for Miami. In Weeks 14-15 with De’Von Achane active, Mostert played 54-64% of the snaps, averaging 19.5 touches and 71.5 total yards with a stranglehold on the red zone work. In those two games, Mostert had 14 red zone opportunities versus Achane’s three. Mostert continues to chug along, ranking sixth in explosive run rate, 11th in missed tackles forced per attempt, and fifth in yards after contact per attempt. Since Week 12, Kansas City has allowed the 14th-most rushing yards per game, the 13th-highest explosive run rate, the fifth-highest yards per carry to zone runs (4.91), and the sixth-highest success rate to zone runs (Mostert 64.6% zone).
De’Von Achane: Achane is in play for GPPs if you’re running multiple teams or MMEing, but if you’re only living the single-entry life, he won’t make my builds. In Weeks 14-15 with Mostert and Achane active, Achane has taken a backseat with only three red zone opportunities versus Mostert’s 14 while he averaged 12 touches and 66.5 total yards (39-46% snap rate). Achane is still incredibly explosive and a threat to break off any touch for a long gain. He ranks first in explosive run rate, second in missed tackles forced per attempt, and first in yards after contact per attempt. Achane is still facing a wonderful rushing matchup. Since Week 12, Kansas City has allowed the 14th-most rushing yards per game, the 13th-highest explosive run rate, the fifth-highest yards per carry to zone runs (4.91), and the sixth-highest success rate to zone runs (Achane 47.6% zone).
Wide Receivers
Tyreek Hill: Hill has been a monster this season, with at least 20 PPR points in 63% of his games. He ranks third in deep targets, fourth in red zone targets, and second in total touchdowns. With that said, he was held in check by the Chiefs in their last meeting, securing eight of his ten targets for 62 scoreless yards. This was with L’Jarius Sneed only following Hill on 35.3% of his routes. With Kansas City’s plan to neutralize Hill working without a Sneed shadow last time, I don’t envision them changing things up this week. I don’t forecast Sneed following him all day. Since Week 13, Kansas City has utilized two high on 69.9% of their defensive snaps (second-highest rate). In the 13 games Hill and Jaylen Waddle have been active, against two-high, Hill has seen a 29.1% target share and a 42.3% air-yard share with 3.43 YPRR and a 36.3% first-read share. He has had six end-zone targets (Waddle four). Hill faces a tough task against a Chiefs’ secondary that has held perimeter wide receivers to the lowest PPR points per target since Week 12. I’m open to fading him in some lineups this week.
Jaylen Waddle: Waddles has had a more muted season in 2023, with only two games with more than 20 PPR points and four outings with at least 18 PPR points. That does display that his ceiling is still there, but we haven’t seen it as much. His touchdown equity in this offense has evaporated, with only two red zone targets in his last eight games played. He is a good leverage play, though, with Hill likely to be popular. Since Week 13, Kansas City has utilized two high on 69.9% of their defensive snaps (second-highest rate). In the 13 games Tyreek Hill and Waddle have been active, against two-high, Waddle has had a 22.5% target share, a 27.7% air-yard share, 2.84 YPRR, and a 23.8% first-read share. The Chiefs have held perimeter wide receivers to the lowest PPR points per target and the fewest receiving yards per game since Week 12. Fading both Hill and Waddle is in play this week, but I can’t fully fade either.
Rashee Rice: Since Week 12, Rice has been a stud ranking 13th in target share (25.2%), eighth in receiving yards per game (86.3), 10th in YPRR (2.77), and 15th in first-read share (30.3%). He was also ninth in fantasy points per route run. Over that span, Kansas City made it a point to force the ball to him as he was second in designed target rate (30.4%) and first in designed targets. Rice ranks seventh in red zone targets this season. Since Week 13, Miami has utilized Cover 3 or Cover 6 on 53.6% of their defensive snaps. Against these coverages, Rice has had a 30% TPRR and 3.27 YPRR. Since Week 13, Miami has allowed the 14th-most PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.
Justin Watson: Watson should be in your MME player pool. Since Week 13, Miami has struggled to defend against deep passing, allowing the third-highest yards per attempt with targets 20-plus yards downfield while also giving up the highest CPOE to deep passing and the second-most deep passing yards. Watson leads the team in deep targets (21). Since Week 13, Miami has utilized Cover 3 or Cover 6 on 53.6% of their defensive snaps. Against these coverages, Watson has led the team with five deep targets. Since Week 13, Miami has allowed the 14th-most PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.
Tight Ends
Travis Kelce: Kelce was kept in check during their last meeting with only 14 receiving yards, but I don’t expect that to be the case this week. Kelce hasn’t surpassed 80 receiving yards since Week 14, and he hasn’t managed more than 20 PPR points since Week 7, so you can say that he’s due. Since Week 13, Miami has utilized Cover 3 or Cover 6 on 53.6% of their defensive snaps. Against these coverage types, Kelce has led the team with a 21.3% target share and a 27% air-yard share while chipping in 2.18 YPRR. Miami has allowed the 11th-most receiving yards, the ninth-most fantasy points, and the sixth-most receiving touchdowns to tight ends.
Noah Gray: If you are going the MME route this week, Gray needs to be in your player pool. Since Week 13, Miami has utilized Cover 3 or Cover 6 on 53.6% of their defensive snaps. Since Week 12 against these coverages, Gray has had a 29% TPRR (third on the team) and 2.86 YPRR. Miami has allowed the 11th-most receiving yards, the ninth-most fantasy points, and the sixth-most receiving touchdowns to tight ends.
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