The easiest way to kick off any way-too-early 2024 fantasy football rankings is to take a look back at what happened the year before. What worked, what didn’t work – but most importantly, addressing the “WHY” behind the successes and failures and using that as a driving force to make smart draft decisions next season.
That’s how I’ll start the breakdown of the quarterbacks for early 2024 fantasy football rankings as we look ahead to the 2024 best ball season. Because with best ball, it’s never too early to start drafting. Here is a complete look at my Early 2024 Fantasy Football Quarterback Rankings, Tiers & Notes. Below we dive into a few notable names.
Early 2024 Fantasy Football Quarterback Rankings, Tiers & Notes
Strategy
My 2024 quarterback draft strategy follows a pseudo-late-round QB approach. It’s the same as last season, which was why I was overexposed to Lamar Jackson and underweight on Patrick Mahomes in 2023.
I want an elite fantasy quarterback at the best price. That helps me capture a ton of upside while also limiting bust potential with my selections. And when it comes to identifying QBs with elite ceilings you can quantify it by aiming for QBs that have shown the capability of scoring 20-plus fantasy points per game.
As you’ll see in the rankings, the guys at the top are consistently averaging north of the 20-point average threshold. And they all have a ton of value added due to their abilities as rushers. Even in 2024, the mobile QBs reign supreme.
Other things to keep in mind, beware of TD regression. In 2022, five of the six highest-drafted QB busts were the passing TD leaders from the previous year. If you just copy-paste the TD passing leaders from 2022 – Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Joe Burrow, Geno Smith, Kirk Cousins, Jared Goff, Aaron Rodgers, Justin Herbert – five of the eight were busts in 2023.
Also, new situations, coaches, receivers, etc., increase the chance that a player busts. The uncertainty is often viewed as untapped potential (which can be true), but the risk heightens substantially when it is already baked into an inflated ADP. Something I didn’t look enough into was the pairing between a team’s OC/HC and the QB. Is the pairing primed for sustained success? Or is the team just throwing something at the wall, hoping it sticks?
The other major theme with a lot of these QB busts is injuries. Whether it be to the quarterback or their supporting cast (pass-catchers and OL). Predicting injuries is easier said than done. But if you want to avoid drafting QB busts, it needs to be part of your drafting equation. 2023 was bad for QB injuries, but by the QBs nobody thought would be injured. The injury QBs to “fear” were Tua Tagovailoa and Lamar Jackson. They played the entire season. Matthew Stafford only missed one game. When it comes to injuries, I think we “think” more than we know. So instead of following the herd, be advantageous and embrace the injury discount for players coming off injuries. Note that this is different than players who get hurt during the preseason/training camp. A la, Joe Burrow.
2024 Fantasy Football Quarterback Rankings
2024 Fantasy Football Quarterback Notes
1. Josh Allen BUF
The Bills will most likely add more weapons around Allen. Gabe Davis is a free agent and Stefon Diggs is coming off his worst year to date in a long time. Allen’s TD equity (51 total TDs scored last season) remains unmatched.
6. Anthony Richardson IND
Incomplete rookie season by Richardson. But he flashed the elite fantasy football ceiling at 22.4 points per game in 3 games played (only two played completely). The Colts QB offers immense rushing upside from a fantasy perspective. Another year in Shane Steichen’s system should do wonders for A-Rich. Will come at a discount based on the injury discourse and small sample size. And that’s why I am circling him early and ranking him aggressively ahead of 2024. Let others be overly concerned with injuries. If he hits, you are going to benefit in a big way.
10 Justin Herbert LAC
Two bad years in a row. Just a lot of question marks. Keenan Allen is another year older, Mike Williams is a logical cut candidate, Austin Ekeler is surely gone and Quentin Johnston a bust. But we still know Herbert is #goodatfootball. 20.5 expected points per game ranked 4th this past season. Back-to-back seasons where Herbert has underperformed versus expectation. Eventually, things are going to regress to the norm with Hebert as a fantasy star, assuming he and his key offensive pieces can FINALLY get healthy. Herbert eclipsed 22 fantasy points per game, through his first two seasons.
Who the team hires as head coach and OC will need to be considered when drafting/ranking Herbert in 2024. Jim Harbaugh anybody? Yes, please.
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | SoundCloud | iHeartRadio
