With the NFL Draft dust still settling, best ball contests are set to launch left, right and center. At FFPC, they have two flagship contests, their $125 single-quarterback tournament and a $35 Superflex tournament. Each contest brings unique twists and will demand different roster constructions, but with both formats being PPR and tight-end premium, largely, the same theory applies to both when it comes to player takes. Below are four players worth avoiding based on single-quarterback average draft position (ADP).
- FFPC Fantasy Football Roster Construction & Draft Strategy
- 2024 Dynasty Fantasy Football Draft Kit
- 2024 Best Ball Fantasy Football Draft Kit
- Free Fantasy Football Mock Draft Simulator
FFPC Players to Avoid
Jonathan Taylor (RB – IND) | ADP: 14.0
Pick 14.0 overall is too pricy for a running back with one top-12 season in PPR points per game — RB2 in 2021. Since then, Jonathan Taylor has been the RB19 in 2022 and the RB14 in 2023. Looking at things purely through a points-per-game metric also eliminates the point that Taylor hasn’t played more than 11 games in consecutive seasons. When Taylor was taking the league by storm he averaged over 5.0 yards per carry in both of his first two seasons, since then he’s not been over 4.5.
Taylor ranked 36th among running backs with 50+ carries in rushing expected points added (EPA) and was largely outplayed by Zack Moss, who averaged more yards per carry (4.3 vs 4.0), evaded more tackles per game (3.0 vs 2.8), had a higher big run ate (3.95% vs 2.88%) and better-rushing yards before contact (1.5 vs 1.1).
Taylor played only 22 snaps with Anthony Richardson before Richardson’s season-ending injury, leaving it purely to our imagination what the two will look like. Taylor may enjoy increased rushing efficiency as defenses account for the dual-threat abilities of Richardson, but he’ll also likely see fewer catches. For someone who has only averaged 2.3 receptions per game over his career, there isn’t much room for losses in that valuable department.
Zach Ertz (TE – WAS) | ADP: 161.8
The Commanders brought Zach Ertz in during free agency to help rebuild a tight end room that had moved on from Logan Thomas and lacked experience at the position. Ertz also has familiarity with the new offensive, having played in Arizona with Kliff Kingsbury during the 2021 and 2022 seasons.
Ertz started 2023 hot with 43 targets in seven games, before picking up an injury that eventually led to his release as the Cardinals embraced the younger, more athletic Trey McBride. Injuries have been a consistent theme for Ertz over the past couple of years and at age 33 he’s no spring chicken. The Commanders have Terry McLaurin, Jahan Dotson, Luke McCaffrey, Brian Robinson, Austin Ekeler and rookie tight end Ben Sinnott all competing for targets from Jayden Daniels. Ertz’s ceiling might likely be somewhat low this year.
The new-look Washington Commanders, based on final pre-draft ADP. Who rises and who falls?
It feels most likely this stays fairly stable given it was such an obvious landing spot. Wouldn’t be surprised to see LMC jump a bit though. pic.twitter.com/zK7Xnay1qw
— Tom Strachan (@NFL_TStrack) April 27, 2024
Roschon Johnson (RB – CHI) | ADP: 161.3
A year ago there was plenty of reason for hope that Roschon Johnson could turn into a valuable fantasy football asset in a Bears backfield that was crying out for a man of his skills. However, the Bears seem entrenched in a three-way committee approach that spells bad news for fantasy. D’Onta Foreman moved on with the expiration of his contract but the Bears lept at the chance to replace him by doing the first deal of free agency and giving D’Andre Swift a three-year $24 million contract.
Swift is coming off career-highs in rushing yards per game (65), attempts per game (14.3) and games played (16). While he rarely looks like he can be a true RB1, he does enough to keep other players off the field. The only argument for Johnson would be that Swift suffered an injury, but the Bears seem to like Khalil Herbert plenty, giving him a 51.9% opportunity share in 2023, good for 12.5 touches per game. If anything does happen to Swift or Herbert, Johnson’s best hope is a two-way committee instead of a three-way, and that’s not overly enticing.
Luke Musgrave (TE – GB) | ADP: 111.0
When it comes to FFPC and their tight-end premium scoring, nailing the tight end position is important. Luke Musgrave is currently the TE16 on FFPC, which feels quite expensive for a player who could be embroiled in a tight-end timeshare. Musgrave averaged 7.3 PPR points per game over the first 11 weeks of the 2023 season, finishing with double-digit points on only two occasions, while playing on 70% of the snaps, which kept fellow rookie tight end Tucker Kraft down to a 31% snap share.
Kraft played well in Musgrave’s absence from Week 12 onwards, while Musgrave dealt with a lacerated kidney. Kraft averaged 10.5 PPR points and had double-digit points in four of the six games during that span. Musgrave might have started 2023 as the clear TE1 in Green Bay, but it’s unlikely to stay as clear after Kraft performed so well. With Kraft available 40 picks later, the cheaper option might be the better one.
They don’t yet know that Tucker Kraft is the real TE1 pic.twitter.com/frGIYTtMh7
— JetPack Galileo (@JetPackGalileo) November 23, 2023
T.J. Hockenson (TE – MIN) | ADP: 98.0
A top-100 pick is quite a lot to part with for a player coming off a torn ACL and MCL knee injury, suffered in Week 16. The most optimistic scenarios expect T.J. Hockenson to be back on the field around Week 6, at which point Hockenson will be expected to get up to speed with rookie quarterback, J.J. McCarthy, who will be getting used to a lot of change.
By the time Hockenson is healthy he could be at best the third option behind Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison. Unless we hear positive news about Hockenson, he’s best left alone until his ADP gets to around 150, which it likely will as we get to the summer months and it becomes clear how much time Hockenson will miss.
More Fantasy Football Draft Advice
- Erickson’s Must-Have Best Ball Draft Targets (Premium)
- Fitz’s Must-Have Best Ball Draft Targets (Premium)
- DBro’s Must-Have Best Ball Draft Targets (Premium)
- Hoppen’s Must-Have Best Ball Draft Targets (Premium)
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | SoundCloud | iHeartRadio
For more from Tom, check out his archive and follow him @NFL_Tstrack.
