Nino Lombardi | Thu, May 2nd 2024, 7:12am EDT

Top 3 Bold Predictions (2024 Fantasy Football)

The offseason is somewhat of a hectic time in the fantasy football landscape. Creators across the industry are constantly sharing their opinions and pushing certain narratives for the upcoming NFL season. As fantasy managers, it remains important to stay true to the opinions we form based on our research. At times, going against the consensus can lead to finding great values in drafts and trades. Below are a few bold predictions for the 2024 season.

2024 Early Fantasy Football Bold Predictions

Buffalo’s Offense Does Not Miss a Beat

Many have questioned how the departure of Stefon Diggs will negatively impact the Buffalo Bills’ offense in 2024. To his credit, Diggs had an incredible tenure in Buffalo. Across 66 games in blue and red, he amassed 5,372 yards and scored an impressive 37 touchdowns. Moreover, he played a key role in Josh Allen‘s development into a superstar. While it may seem like a distant memory at this point, many wondered whether Allen would become a franchise QB after a couple of inconsistent seasons to begin his career.

That being said, the Buffalo Bills offense evolved throughout the past season. What was once a pass-heavy “air-raid” offense turned into a much more balanced unit under newly-appointed offensive coordinator Joe Brady. Once Brady took over in Week 11, the team leaned heavily on the run and the short passing game. From Week 11 onwards, Diggs averaged an uninspiring 45 yards per game. The superstar WR became a mere afterthought in this offensive unit that averaged 27.4 points per game during that span. This brand of football was much more conducive to winning. The Bills won six of their remaining seven regular-season games after starting 5-5 before Brady’s appointment. This new-look Bills offense is not dependent on Diggs’ expertise as a downfield threat.

Although it lacks a bona fide alpha receiver, the group of weapons Allen has at his disposal is very intriguing. Khalil Shakir and Curtis Samuel have shown flashes throughout their respective careers. Dalton Kincaid is an emerging star at the tight end position likely to become Josh Allen’s main target in 2024. Kincaid’s 1.46 yards per route run in 2023, per Pro Football Focus (PFF), suggests he is due for a true breakout in his sophomore season. The team also invested the 33rd overall pick in WR Keon Coleman. Many analysts projected Coleman to be selected in the first round of the NFL Draft due to his interesting blend of size and ball skills. His career drop percentage of 2.7%, per PFF, sheds light on how reliable Coleman is when targeted downfield. The running game is led by James Cook, who finished the 2023 regular season with the fourth-most rushing yards (1,122) in the NFL. According to PFF, Cook trailed only Christian McCaffrey with 33 explosive runs (i.e. carries of 10+ yards).

This is an offense that catered to its players’ strengths. It’s led by a superstar QB surrounded by exciting weapons on all fronts. In light of this, do not shy away from selecting the likes of Josh Allen, James Cook, Keon Coleman and Khalil Shakir in redraft. This offense will be just as potent as in previous years.

Lamar Jackson Fails to Deliver

Coming off of his second MVP-winning season, it may sound preposterous to question Lamar Jackson’s value as a fantasy asset. There’s no doubt he’s an invaluable player for the Baltimore Ravens and is one of the faces of the NFL. That said, the Ravens seem committed to limiting Jackson’s output as a rusher and passer. He’s seen a steady decrease in rushing attempts per game since 2021. Per PFF, he’s seen a continued decrease in average depth of target (aDOT) since 2021. Whether these tactics have been employed to preserve Jackson’s health or to limit turnovers, it certainly limits his fantasy upside. Given the Ravens’ success over the past couple of seasons, it’s hard to imagine they’ll stray away from this game plan.

Lamar Jackson finished as the QB4 in 2023. Those who drafted the QB in the early-to-mid rounds certainly got a good return on their investment. That being said, Jackson failed to provide week-to-week fantasy production. He was wildly inconsistent and finished with fewer than 16 fantasy points in 37.5% of games. What is perhaps most concerning is that these low fantasy output performances weren’t his fault. The Ravens have consistently had a very slow-paced, run-centric offensive approach. When they impose their will in the running game, Jackson often takes a back seat. For some context, he averaged an underwhelming 24.6 pass attempts in games the Ravens have won throughout his career. With perennial Pro Bowler Derrick Henry joining the backfield, this rushing attack will be more effective than ever. Jackson’s play-making ability may not be required in the later stages of games.

Given Jackson’s lackluster group of pass-catching weapons, he’ll have a hard time maintaining a high level of efficiency through the air. The current depth chart has Zay Flowers, Rashod Bateman and Nelson Agholor as the starting receivers for this team. To his credit, Flowers showed great promise in his rookie season. His statistical profile is headlined by an impressive 5.2 yards after catch (YAC) per reception and 1.72 yards per route run (YPRR) in 2023, per PFF. Flowers excels in the short-to-intermediate areas of the field. According to PFF, his aDOT was 9.1 yards and he ran 31% of his routes from the slot. Bateman and Agholor are slated to be the main downfield threats. Their respective PFF receiving grades of 62.3 and 60.6 from last season left much to be desired. While TE Mark Andrews has always been an incredibly reliable option for Jackson, it remains to be seen whether he will be as effective upon return from his devastating ankle injury.

The bottom line is that Jackson’s 2023 season was the best-case scenario for his fantasy output. He managed to play a full 16 games after a couple of injury-riddled seasons in years prior. Positive touchdown regression saw him rushing for seven touchdowns, more than his total from the two prior seasons combined. Despite these factors in Jackson’s favor, his fantasy output was underwhelming and inconsistent. His QB4 finish is somewhat misleading. Given Jackson’s slender frame and style of play, injuries will always be a concern. Henry’s arrival will eat into some of his production in the rushing touchdown department. Despite his undeniable talent, there are too many red flags in Lamar Jackson’s fantasy profile. The two-time MVP will not finish as a top-10 QB in fantasy in 2024.

Anthony Richardson Rises to the Top

We saw glimpses of Anthony Richardson’s sky-high fantasy ceiling during his rookie year. In two full games played, Richardson scored 21.9 and 29.6 fantasy points. These performances were the result of impressive rushing production. In these games, Richardson rushed for 96 yards and scored an additional two touchdowns on the ground. His athletic acumen has been a threat to opposing defenses ever since his college days, where he accumulated 713 rushing yards in his final season as a Florida Gator. The option game between Richardson and RB Jonathan Taylor should make for an abundance of running lanes to be exploited by the sophomore QB. Assuming health, Richardson should be able to accumulate an impressive amount of fantasy points as a runner.

Many will cite Richardson’s inaccuracies as a downfield passer. Admittedly, his 2023 PFF passing grade of 56.5 is very alarming. That being said, there are several factors to suggest Richardson will make strides as a passer in 2024. To start, Richardson will certainly benefit from having an additional offseason to perfect the system alongside offensive mastermind Shane Steichen. He will be surrounded by an impressive group of play-makers at the WR position. Michael Pittman Jr. has established himself as one of the elite chain movers in the NFL. Per PFF, Pittman set career-highs in receptions (109) and yards per route run (2.04) in 2024. Sophomore WR Josh Downs is coming off a rookie season where he accumulated an impressive 5.5 yards after catch per reception, per PFF. Lastly, the Colts invested second-round draft capital in WR Adonai Mitchell, who figures to be this team’s primary deep target. During his time in college, he’s shown to be very adept in this role. He averaged 15.4 yards per reception in his final collegiate season with the Texas Longhorns. The TE trifecta of Kylen Granson, Mo Alie-Cox and Jelani Woods has also made several plays for this Colts offense.

The majority of QBs that have been true difference makers for fantasy have had very similar archetypes. For the most part, these players are elite rushers who also maintain high levels of production through the air. This can be said for the likes of Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, etc. Richardson’s ability as a runner cannot be questioned. While there are some concerns about his profile as a pure passer, there are plenty of indications he can make great improvements to this end. If he can stay healthy in 2024, Anthony Richardson will finish as the QB1 in fantasy.

More Fantasy Football Draft Advice

Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | SoundCloud | iHeartRadio

NFL

MLB

NBA

NHL