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NBA DFS Lineup Picks & Advice: Monday (11/4)

NBA DFS Lineup Picks & Advice: Monday (11/4)

The NBA is two weeks into what’s already been an exciting season. The Cavaliers have surprised with an undefeated record and the Thunder have done the same, as expected. The Jazz and Pistons are right where they belong, with the 76ers and Bucks struggling out of the gate for a variety of reasons. I’ll be here Thursdays and Mondays to provide the best DFS plays for the day’s slate. Keep in mind, the NBA can be one of the most difficult daily fantasy sports to participate in just with the consistent lineup changes and injury news that can drop so close to tip-off that can make or break a slate. So this just serves as a friendly reminder to do your 30-minute lineup checks to make sure you stay ahead of the rest of the slate, otherwise your seasonal ROI will be a bit disappointing. It’s a wonderful 8-game main slate on DraftKings and a massive 15-game slate on FanDuel before taking Tuesday off for the election. I’m going to focus on the overlap here but of course, there will be additional options for late swapping. Let’s get into it.

View the best player prop bets for tonight’s slate with our NBA Prop Bet Cheat Sheet

NBA DFS Lineup Optimizer

NBA DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Primer

NBA DFS Core Plays

Giannis Antetokounmpo (PF/C – MIL)

  • DraftKings: $11,000
  • FanDuel: $11,600

I’ll start with the elephant in the room: Giannis Antetokounmpo’s injury status. He is officially listed as questionable tonight with a right adductor strain, which is different than the right patella tendinitis he’s been playing through. Khris Middleton has been out and as mentioned in the intro, Milwaukee has limped out of the gate, so this would not be a great game to miss against the undefeated Cleveland Cavaliers. So this play is assuming Giannis is a full-go. If not, Bobby Portis ($5,800 on DK; $5,400 on FD) will become quite the popular play.

Of course, it may seem like a cop-out going with the highest salaried player on DraftKings and a close second on FanDuel, but Giannis projects to be the highest scorer tonight across the board. Even playing through his injury, the Greek Freak has averaged 57 fantasy points per game, only dipping below 50 once in his six games. Last game alone on Saturday against these same Cavaliers, Giannis went nuclear, scoring 34 points with 16 boards and nine assists, passing the 70 fantasy point mark on DK and barely falling short on FD. I wouldn’t be surprised by a triple-double and similar fantasy output tonight. His floor sits at 50 points and I expect him to excel playing around the 35 expected minutes he will see the court.

Anthony Davis (C/PF – LAL)

  • DraftKings: $10,800
  • FanDuel: $11,200

Again, I’m not exactly re-inventing the wheel here going with two players who I expect to have significant rostership, but Anthony Davis projects just behind Giannis tonight with a much more favorable matchup. He also has an injury designation for tonight but is listed as probable from his right hip soreness, so there isn’t much concern there. The Lakers’ big man has been nothing but impressive this season and his continued rising price tag has reflected that. Davis has been averaging 36 minutes a night with 32 points, 12 boards, and three assists early on this year and I only see those numbers continuing tonight, especially on the glass.

Jayson Tatum (SF/PF – BOS)

  • DraftKings: $10,000
  • FanDuel: $10,300

With Jaylen Brown out for tonight’s game against the Hawks, Jayson Tatum is going to be a popular option on the slate. While he’s averaging 52 fantasy points per game, he’s gone over that number in five of seven outings. Coupled with an expected usage bump in a high-paced game tonight against a sub-par option, he’s one of few players who I’m confident will reach the 50-point threshold. He’s averaged 37 minutes a game in the last week and his usage has been over 35% in his last two games, a significant bump that should play out the same way here against Atlanta.

CTAs

NBA DFS Cash Game Targets

Cameron Johnson (SF/PF – BKN)

  • DraftKings: $5,800
  • FanDuel: $6,000

While Brooklyn can’t exactly be a team to rely on game in and out, Cameron Johnson has been as consistent as they come. The Nets’ forward has only dipped below 20 points once this season and his pricing has stayed steady. He will give you over 30 minutes on the floor and is coming off a 26 point outing. He’s attempted an average of nine three-pointers a game, which helps his capacity for a ceiling performance, and also adds four boards and at least three assists a game as a floor performance. Going against Memphis, a team with a below average defense in a pace-up spot, makes Johnson a solid cash option without spending too much salary.

Mikal Bridges (SG/SF – NYK)

  • DraftKings: $6,200
  • FanDuel: $6,800

Seeing the projected points total of the Knicks-Rockets game around 219 isn’t promising given the number of options tonight, but Bridges is one of my cash selections. Of course, this will be a pace-up spot for the Knicks, every team is, but being a top-10 paced team will make this a great spot for Bridges, who’s priced a little down from his early season peak. There’s a chance Bridges sees the court for 39-plus minutes tonight, as he has twice already this season. His high minutes and the fact that his lowest scoring output was 15 points makes me comfortable with Bridges as a cash option, projecting him over 30 fantasy points.

Josh Hart (SF/PF – NYK)

  • DraftKings: $6,100
  • FanDuel: $6,600

I’m not wild about slotting in multiple Knicks, but they are a top-three defense and quite consistent in terms of efficiency. Their numbers don’t jump off the page, but if you’re just looking to beat some one-on-ones or cash your 50/50s, they are great options to trust. Hart’s price tag simply has not followed his performance so far, and he posted 39-plus fantasy points in three of his last four games. I expect him to have a floor around 30 tonight, which makes him an easy click into your cash lineups.

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NBA DFS GPP Targets

Darius Garland (PG – CLE)

  • DraftKings: $7,100
  • FanDuel: $6,300

This is more of a FanDuel play, where Garland will earn a lot of rostership, but given the fact that you can roster players from all 30 teams, it should stay below double-digit percentage. Garland is projected around 35 points tonight, but based on the season stats to date, Milwaukee is a struggling team that sets up quite well for Garland. The Bucks are a top-10 paced team with a bottom-10 ranked defense. They’ve struggled against the stars, allowing the third-most fantasy points per game to opposing guards. Donovan Mitchell is another fine play here ($8,200 on DK; $8,500 on FD) but I prefer the price savings. The Vanderbilt product has shown 50-plus fantasy point outings and he’s capable of doing the same tonight.

Derrick White (SG/PG – BOS)

  • DraftKings: $6,700
  • FanDuel: $7,100

Like with Jayson Tatum, the absence of Jaylen Brown will only shift more usage to the rest of the Celtics starters. Based on current rostership, it seems like White has fallen through the cracks a bit compared to Tatum and Luke Kornet. This is the highest total on the slate and Atlanta is one of the best teams for opposing PG’s, scoring the second-most fantasy points against so far this season. White’s usage has taken a big step forward without Brown, as it’s jumped closer to 30% after he’s averaged sub-20 all season. Given the pace of play and sub-par defense, White has the chance to go 6X here and pay off in a big way. Jrue Holiday ($5,400 on DK; $5,800 on FD) is another option, but he’s seen a bit higher rostership than White in early projections.

Nikola Vucevic (C – CHI)

  • DraftKings: $7,900
  • FanDuel: $8,000

This matchup features the fastest-paced team taking on another top-10 paced team, who also happens to have allowed the highest fantasy points against across the board and to opposing centers. For a center who should see the floor around 35 minutes, Nikola Vucevic slots in as an awesome GPP play. He should only get around five percent rostership but he is capable of a 50-plus point outing as he did on Friday in Brooklyn. Zach LaVine is questionable tonight and his absence would only bump Vuc’s usage. There are a lot of big men at play tonight, so if you’re going big slates, the Bulls’ big man is the perfect pivot option in your GPPs. If you want another pure GPP flyer in your center spot, Domantas Sabonis ($9,800 on DK; $9,800 on FD) slots as a solid late swap option who should also see sub-5% rostership with a higher ceiling with higher pricing.

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NBA DFS Value Plays

Luke Kornet (C – BOS)

  • DraftKings: $3,900
  • FanDuel: $4,000

Luke Kornet is the expected starter tonight for the Celtics in the center spot, with Jaylen Brown out and Horford slotting up to the power forward position. He has a good chance of being the best value on the entire slate on both sites. Not only is Atlanta coming off a back-to-back, but they set up as a great matchup. In their seven games so far, the Hawks have allowed the fifth-most points to opposing centers. It’s a pace-up spot for the double-digit favored Celtics and Kornet has put up decent numbers in his last two starts, scoring 19 points at Charlotte on Saturday. This is an easy play and he will be highly rostered. But since it’s such a large slate and there are always center options, Kornet might not be off-the-charts rostered so he should be a solid play across cash and GPP contests.

Kyshawn George (SG/SF – WAS)

  • DraftKings: $3,900
  • FanDuel: $4,600

OR

Carlton Carrington (PG/SG – WAS)

  • DraftKings: $4,600
  • FanDuel: $5,000

I wanted to provide a double-dip here simply because it’s such a large slate. Kyshawn George would be my preference if I need to pick one or the other, but I expect them both to return solid value. Honestly, I expect these Washington starters to return high value all year. George is positioned as a SF on DraftKings and SG on FanDuel, but he will likely be listed in the PF spot in the starting lineup; he is a man of many talents! These are high-paced teams, with Washington leading the NBA in possession rate and Golden State ranking in the top-ten. George is still getting his feet wet in the NBA, but after slotting into the starting lineup in his last couple of games with Kyle Kuzma out, he’s managed solid outings averaging 28 minutes with a respectful usage rate. I wouldn’t expect him to break the bank exactly, but putting him around the range of 20-25 fantasy points makes him a worthy punt option on the big slate.

Bub Carrington is an equally viable option for similar reasons. His minutes are only continuing to increase, seeing the floor for 37 minutes Saturday against Miami. His usage leaves more to be desired, but he’s scored double-digit points in three of his five games so far and his capable passing makes him an option that can get to 6X value on either site with a 28-plus fantasy point outing, a bench mark he’s reached in his last two games. I didn’t even include Corey Kispert here ($4,900 on DK; $4,500 FD) who will be another Wizard to play around 30 minutes and is still cheaply priced. Throw a dart on a Wizard tonight and go with it.

Russell Westbrook (PG – DEN)

  • DraftKings: N/A
  • FanDuel: $5,400

This is a pure FanDuel play, obviously, but I wanted to give a shoutout to all my FD users out there that will have to struggle through a 15-game slate tonight. Again, late swap your lineups, try to avoid the professionals, and hope. With Jamal Murray sidelined from his concussion, Westbrook slotted into the starting lineup Saturday and played over 30 minutes. I expect the same tonight. Without a big salary change, Westbrook is one of the best values, which is saying something since there are 30 teams to choose from. Toronto’s defense has been the second-worst in the league so far with a big pace-up spot. Westbrook is quite capable of a double-double here and his rostership shouldn’t ruin his leverage on the rest of the slate, projected around 12-15%.

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