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Bills vs. Ravens NFL DFS Divisional Picks (2025 Fantasy Football)

The final eight teams are set in the NFL. There are a pair of games on Saturday and two more on Sunday. The primary focus of this piece is the main slate and the classic contests, but there are also showdown picks. Since I’m taking a broad view of offensive and defensive tendencies, gamers entering all contest types and entering a modest number of teams or the maximum number of teams into contests should find value in this piece. Here are my top NFL DFS picks and predictions for Bills vs. Ravens.

NFL Prop Bet Cheat Sheet

NFL Divisional Round DFS Picks: Bills vs. Ravens

Spread/Total: BAL -1.0/51.5 Points

The Ravens boat raced the Bills in Week 4. Baltimore was flying high at home on Sunday Night Football, feeding Derrick Henry to their heart’s content. King Henry opened the game with an untouched 87-yard touchdown run as part of a massive effort. Henry had 199 rushing yards, one rushing touchdown, three receptions, 10 receiving yards and one receiving touchdown. Lamar Jackson had an efficient game, completing 13 of 18 passes for 156 yards and two touchdowns while adding 54 rushing yards and one rushing touchdown.

Both have sky-high ceilings in the rematch, but Buffalo’s defense should be more formidable this time. Starting linebackers Matt Milano and Terrel Bernard and starting nickel Taron Johnson were out in Week 4. They’re unlikely to slow down the unstoppable King Henry entirely, but simply copying and pasting the results from the first matchup is unwise, saying nothing of the betting info and the game being in Buffalo providing other reasons to expect a more competitive contest this time around.

Still, gamers should expect the Ravens to attempt to bully the Bills on the ground. Since Week 10, Baltimore’s 54% situation-neutral rush rate was the second-highest mark in the NFL. Obviously, Jackson is also a part of their potent rushing attack, and offensive coordinator Todd Monken used his dual-threat quarterback’s legs on plenty of designed runs against the Steelers in the Wild Card Round. The Bills were tied for facing the fourth-highest situation-neutral rush rate (47%) since Week 10. So, Henry and Jackson should be heavily utilized on the ground.

However, Jackson could succeed through the air if the Bills sold out to stop the run. Jackson averaged a career-high 245.4 passing yards per game and set a career-high with 41 passing touchdowns in the regular season.

Zay Flowers was Baltimore’s No. 1 wide receiver in the regular season. However, he’s trending toward missing this week. The second-year wide receiver hasn’t practiced this week. Even if Flowers isn’t ruled out, his lack of practice participation and the possibility of an in-game setback or being utilized as a decoy make him an unappealing pick in all game types.

Mark Andrews had a slow start to the year but found his footing starting in Week 5. Since Week 5, he’s had 0.23 targets per route run, 51 receptions (3.6 per game), 635 receiving yards (45.4 per game), 2.31 yards per route run, nine end zone targets, nine touchdowns on the end zone targets and 11 receiving touchdowns overall.

Rashod Bateman had a breakout campaign and could also see an uptick in usage without Flowers. He had a 15.0-yard average depth of target (aDOT), 24.0% air yards share, team-high 10 end zone targets, 47 receptions (2.6 per game), 780 receiving yards (43.3 per game) and 10 receiving touchdowns this season. Bateman is a big-play threat with a nose for the end zone.

Isaiah Likely could benefit the most if Flowers is out. The third-year pro had just a 52.0% route participation rate but efficiently tallied 0.22 targets per route run and 1.90 yards per route run this season. Thus, Likely is an appealing pick in showdown contests and for gamers seeking salary relief in classic contests.

Josh Allen has been the one constant in Buffalo’s everyone-eats offense. He’s a game-script-proof dual-threat quarterback and the lineup optimizer projects Allen to lead DraftKings and FanDuel in scoring this week. Allen had one of his worst games of the year against Baltimore and could struggle if his defense puts him in obvious passing situations in a negative game script.

However, Allen has been on a tear. In his last seven contests after excluding his single snap in Week 18 to continue his consecutive starts streak, Allen has had a 65.2% completion percentage, 1,722 passing yards (246.0 per game), 13 touchdown passes, two interceptions, 316 rushing yards (45.1 per game), eight rushing touchdowns and a receiving touchdown on a lateral.

Khalil Shakir is Buffalo’s top passing-game weapon. He was first on the Bills this year (including the Wild Card Round) in route participation (70.1%), target share (21.3%), receptions (82 at 5.1 per game), receiving yards (882 at 55.1 per game), first-read percentage (25.3%) and tied for second in receiving touchdowns (four). Shakir was a handful after the catch, evidenced by ranking tied for second in missed tackles forced (23) on receptions this season. Shakir is Buffalo’s least likely pass-catcher to post a total dud.

Keon Coleman, Dalton Kincaid, Curtis Samuel and even running back Ty Johnson have varying degrees of appeal as stacking picks with Allen, bring-backs from the Ravens or one-offs. Despite playing in only 14 of a possible 18 games, Coleman is first on the Bills in end zone targets (eight) and second in receiving yards per game (40.1).

Kincaid was tied with Shakir for the most targets per route run (0.27), and his 9.6 expected fantasy points per game were notably higher than his 8.0 DraftKings and 6.3 FanDuel points per game.

Samuel suffered a turf toe injury before the season and was an afterthought most of the year. Has his recent emergence been a fluke or a sign he’s entirely healthy? I’m not sure. The Bills ramped up his activity in a meaningless Week 18 contest to get him ready for the postseason after he missed Week 16 and Week 17. After hauling in seven receptions for 52 yards from a combination of Mitchell Trubisky and Mike White in Week 18, he had three receptions for 68 yards and a touchdown in the Wild Card Round against the Broncos. Last week, Samuel was tied for the fourth-most routes (14) for the Bills. He could disappear this week, but I’m unwilling to handwave away his last two games.

James Cook was first in Buffalo’s backfield in route participation (34.5%), but Johnson nipped at his heels with a 31.8% route participation rate. Furthermore, Johnson’s suggestion as a contrarian GPP pick in classic contests and showdown lineups isn’t a matter of chasing his highlight-reel grab in the back of the end zone last week. Instead, Johnson has a wideout-like 8.5-yard average depth of target this season. He’s also been aligned wide 8.8% of the time, in the slot 14.4% of the time and inline 3.6% of the time. In addition, the Ravens allowed 4.71 receptions per game, 39.6 receiving yards per game and four receiving touchdowns to running backs in the regular season and seven receptions for 60 receiving yards to Pittsburgh’s running backs in the Wild Card Round.

Cook could also chip in as a receiver. He had 1.9 receptions per game, 15.2 receiving yards per game and two receiving touchdowns in 17 games this season. However, Cook’s most likely path to success is gashing Baltimore’s stout run defense.

Buffalo’s running game against Baltimore’s run defense is a strength-versus-strength matchup. Since Week 10, the Bills were tied for the fourth-highest situation-neutral rush rate (51%), but the Ravens were tied for facing the sixth-lowest situation-neutral rush rate (40%). Baltimore allowed an NFL-low 63.8 rushing yards per game and eight rushing touchdowns to running backs in the regular season.

Still, Cook had an outstanding season. Among 54 running backs with at least 75 rush attempts this season, Cook is 18th in rushing yards per game (63.1), tied for eighth in yards per carry (4.87), ninth in yards before contact per attempt (2.39), 25th in yards after contact per attempt (2.48), tied for 22nd in explosive run rate (4.8%), tied for first in rushing touchdowns (16), 14th in stuff percentage (42.5%), 15th in success rate (51.8%) in zone concepts and 14th in success rate (54.8%) in man/gap concepts. Cook is an option only in GPPs, but Buffalo’s mauling offensive line and his juice could result in a DFS-friendly output. Finally, Justice Hill, Nelson Agholor, Mack Hollins and Dawson Knox could chip in just enough as pass-catching options to have value in showdown contests.

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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.

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