It’s never too early to start talking about fantasy football busts. Finding out which players may heavily underperform expectations takes far more than just comparing their final ranking last year with their current ADP or consensus rank. That’s because injuries and changes to a player’s role or situation can have huge impacts on every player’s season-long output or final ranking. Injury-prone players or athletes who start the season hurt are always a massive risk, especially in the early rounds. Plus, changes like the loss of a reliable quarterback or the potential for a younger player to steal a veteran’s job are risks to account for when evaluating every skill player across the football landscape. Inconsistent, boom-or-bust athletes who produced the majority of their fantasy points in a few games are another trap that ensnares plenty of fantasy managers each year.
Our featured pundits know exactly what to look for when identifying potential busts. So to help you begin your research, they’ve each listed an RB and WR they think have the biggest odds of falling short of expectations. Read on below to see who you may want to think twice about selecting and why.
Early Bust Candidates: Running Backs
What RB in our consensus top 24 should fantasy managers fear the most as a bust candidate?
Aaron Jones (RB – MIN)
“Aaron Jones, Vikings: Minnesota upgraded at RB2 with the trade for Jordan Mason. HC Kevin O’Connell has already signaled a sizable role for the former 49er — including at the goal line. Jones’ age (31) and injury history also suggest a cautious approach.”
– Kevin English (Draft Sharks)
“Aaron Jones (RB22 in the rankings) had a solid 2024 season, ending the year as the RB16, averaging 12.7 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. However, fantasy players should avoid drafting him as a low-end RB2 in 2025. The Minnesota Vikings traded for Jordan Mason this offseason. Head coach Kevin O’Connell wants Jones and Mason to form a 1A and 1B backfield. More importantly, the veteran had only five rushing touchdowns last year, his fourth consecutive season with five or fewer. Jones will likely lose even more short-yardage work to Mason.”
– Mike Fanelli (FantasyPros)
Breece Hall (RB – NYJ)
“Breece Hall could be a fantasy football bust in 2025 due to his declining efficiency, as evidenced by his career-low 4.2 yards per carry in 2024, compared to 5.8 in 2022 and 4.5 in 2023, signaling a potential loss of explosiveness. His rushing yardage dropped to 876 yards on 209 attempts in 2024, a significant decrease from his 994 yards on 223 carries in 2023, despite only slightly fewer opportunities, suggesting he’s less effective with his touches. Hall’s touchdown production also regressed, with just five rushing scores in 2024 compared to nine total touchdowns (five rushing, four receiving) in 2023, indicating a reduced scoring threat. His receiving stats took a hit as well, falling from 76 receptions for 591 yards in 2023 to 57 catches for 483 yards in 2024, which limits his PPR upside in an offense that may not prioritize him as a pass-catcher. Finally, the Jets’ backfield competition with Braelon Allen and Isaiah Davis (whom HC Aaron Glenn has suggested getting more involved), who combined for notable touches in 2024, alongside a meager team average of 21 rushing attempts per game, could cap his volume at around 200-220 carries, far below the workload needed for a top-tier fantasy running back.”
– Brandon Murchison (RotoBaller)
Chase Brown (RB – CIN)
“The RB in the FantasyPros consensus top 24 that managers should fear as a bust candidate is Chase Brown. Brown was the RB14 in FPPG last season and is currently ranked as the RB13 in the consensus rankings. The Bengals have been doing their due diligence on the running back class, and it could end up being an RBBC in Cincinnati, which would drastically impact Brown’s value.”
– Nick Penticoff (Fantasy Football Astronauts)
Saquon Barkley (RB – PHI)
“It has to be Saquon Barkley because fantasy managers will be staking a No. 1 pick on him. But why should we worry about Saquon going belly-up? He’s a (warning: tired fantasy football cliche ahead) “generational talent” playing in the most RB-friendly offense imaginable. Well, it’s more than a little concerning that Saquon touched the ball 482 times last season if you include the Eagles’ four playoff games. That’s a jaw-dropping workload. Saquon’s previous single-season high in touches was 352. Aaron Schatz of Football Outsiders once wrote about the “Curse of 370″ — a fate that doomed nearly all of the RBs who had accumulated 370 or more carries to substantial regression the following season. Saquon is a 28-year-old back who tore his ACL in 2020 and has had multiple ankle injuries. Yes, of course, Saquon could smash again. But it’s reasonable to fear that the mileage he piled up in 2024 could catch up with him in 2025.”
– Pat Fitzmaurice (FantasyPros)
Kyren Williams (RB – LAR)
“I know we’ve played this game for a few seasons: “Will Kyren Williams lose his bell-cow role and see his value cut in a committee?” Until this point, we have been wrong to assume that, but I worry this could be the year. The Rams have two third-round picks and another selection in the fourth round of the NFL Draft, where they could further address the running back position. I also haven’t mentioned Blake Corum to this point. This feels like the 2024 conversation I had around Rachaad White. At what point will the efficiency concerns catch up with Williams? Last year, among 46 qualifying backs (per PFF), Williams ranked 37th in yards after contact per attempt and 38th in elusive rating. That point in time could arrive in 2025.”
– Derek Brown (FantasyPros)
Alvin Kamara (RB – NO)
“There’s some noise that the New Orleans Saints could use an early pick on a running back, putting Alvin Kamara’s workload at risk. Kamara has been decreasing in efficiency for years; his 4.2 yards per carry in 2024 was the best mark he’d posted since 2020. His heavy usage has largely been a result of the fact that Kendre Miller can’t stay healthy and the Saints haven’t had a legit RB2 to complement him since Mark Ingram. There are a number of RBs in this draft class that could steal touches from Kamara. Conversely, new head coach Kellen Moore may opt to air it out more if they go QB early instead. There are several risk factors for Kamara heading into 2025 that make him a volatile option on draft day.”
– Pierre Camus (Fantasy Endgame)
Jahmyr Gibbs (RB – DET)
“The running back managers should fear the most as a bust is Jahmyr Gibbs. Gibbs will certainly be a great player once again for the Detroit Lions, but I have a really difficult time seeing how he’s in the same tier as Saquon Barkley and Bijan Robinson. David Montgomery will be healthy next season, and I see little reason they won’t continue to lean on Montgomery in the red zone. The fact that Gibbs was a top-3 RB just once and a top-10 RB in five of the 13 weeks Montgomery was fully healthy should be a red flag for fantasy managers projecting him in the top tier of running backs.”
– Trevor Land (FlurrySports)
Chuba Hubbard (RB – CAR)
“Chuba Hubbard should be atop the bust list for every fantasy manager heading into 2025. While 2024 was very impressive, Hubbard operated solo, with Miles Sanders being ineffective and Jonathan Brooks working his way back from a knee injury only to suffer another knee injury, ending his season. The Panthers went out and added former Cowboys running back Rico Dowdle this off-season, signaling they want to run with multiple backs in 2025. Hubbard’s 10 rushing scores also represent a statistical outlier, with his previous career high being 5. Is Hubbard a true double-digit touchdown threat, or is he closer to his career averages before 2024? Only time will tell, but he is someone that fantasy managers should fade until a clearer picture of who Hubbard really is becomes clear.”
– Ed Birdsall (Talking Points Sports)
Early Bust Candidates: Wide Receivers
What WR in our consensus top 24 should fantasy managers fear the most as a bust candidate?
Terry McLaurin (WR – WAS)
“Terry McLaurin was excellent in 2024, finishing at WR7 in PPR points. His 15.8% TD rate is a lock to regress, though. And his catch rate (70.6%) will be tough to match. McLaurin’s volume could also dip following the arrival of Deebo Samuel.”
– Kevin English (Draft Sharks)
Nico Collins (WR – HOU)
“Nico Collins may wind up being a fantasy football bust as the WR6 in 2025, despite his 2024 WR6 finish at 14.9 points per game because his production relied heavily on a career-high 2.86 yards per route run, a metric that may regress with increased defensive attention following Stefon Diggs‘ departure and the health of Tank Dell (torn ACL). His 1,006 receiving yards and seven touchdowns in 2024 came across just 12 games. Still, his 99 targets (8.25 per game) could shrink if Tank Dell recovers fully late in 2025, along with the addition of Christian Kirk, and the Texans distribute passes more evenly, as they averaged only 33.6 attempts per game in 2024. Collins’ efficiency dipped late in 2024, with his yards per catch falling from 16.2 in 2023 to 14.8, hinting at a possible decline in big-play ability that fantasy managers banking on WR6 status expect. The Texans’ run-heavy shift, averaging 29.1 rushing attempts per game in 2024, might limit passing volume, capping Collins at around 100-110 targets, well below the 120-plus elite WRs typically need. Finally, his injury history – missing five games in 2024 – raises durability concerns, limiting opportunities on the field and keeping him far from WR6 territory if the injury bug were to strike again.”
– Brandon Murchison (RotoBaller)
Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR – DET)
“This is going to be a flaming hot take, and I think he can still be a good receiver for fantasy this year, but someone that I would tamper expectations on is Amon-Ra St. Brown. Ben Johnson is gone, and he made a lot of things easy for the offense. In 2021, St. Brown averaged 13.4 FPPG when Johnson was the passing game coordinator and not the offensive coordinator. Granted, it was his rookie season, and Johnson was still involved in the offense. St. Brown is ranked as the WR5 right now, and I wouldn’t be shocked if he were a low-end WR1 or high-end WR2 this season.”
– Nick Penticoff (Fantasy Football Astronauts)
“Amon-Ra St. Brown is too good to be a full-on bust (barring injury, of course), but I worry about the house-of-cards fundamentals underpinning his WR3 finish last year. St. Brown averaged 10.3 targets per game in 2023 but only 8.3 targets per game in 2024. The sharp reduction in volume was mitigated by spikes in catch rate (72.6% in 2023; 81.6% in 2024) and touchdown rate (he scored a TD on 6.1% of his targets in 2023, and on 8.5% of his targets in 2024). The emergence of Jameson Williams as a major contributor to the Detroit offense will keep St. Brown’s target rate from returning to past levels, and the departure of play-caller Ben Johnson could lead to an overall downturn for the Lions’ offense. St. Brown won’t flop, but he might not be the blue-chip asset everyone is counting on him to be.”
– Pat Fitzmaurice (FantasyPros)
Zay Flowers (WR – BAL)
“Zay Flowers sitting at WR21 in rankings feels rich. Flowers didn’t even pay off at that rate last year, so I don’t know why we’re projecting for even better in 2025. Last year, Flowers was the WR31 in fantasy points per game. With the arrival of DeAndre Hopkins and Derrick Henry, Lamar Jackson, and Mark Andrews still on the roster, I don’t know how Flowers finishes with enough touchdowns to vault himself into the top 24, even if we aren’t worried about target volume. Last year, Flowers was 59th in red-zone targets, and I don’t see that changing in 2025. He’ll be a solid WR3, but asking Flowers to produce as a WR2 is too much.”
– Derek Brown (FantasyPros)
“Until he can prove otherwise, Zay Flowers should be viewed as a bust in fantasy for the foreseeable future. Right now, there is no reason to suspect Flowers will see much of an increase in volume in Baltimore next season. Seeing Flowers finished lower than WR35 in nine of 17 games last season, I see little reason to believe in Flowers next year as anything more than a volatile boom/bust candidate.”
– Trevor Land (FlurrySports)
Marvin Harrison Jr. (WR – ARI)
“As much as we’d like to assume Marvin Harrison Jr. takes a big leap forward in year two, we are just as likely to get more of the same. Nothing much will change in the Cardinals’ offense from last year, including QB Kyler Murray. Although his numbers are “good enough” to keep him fantasy-relevant, he simply hasn’t supported high-end production from his receivers other than TE Trey McBride for years. For his part, Harrison didn’t show the ability to make contested catches and averaged a lackluster 1.67 Yards Per Route Run. He’ll likely be a consensus top-20 WR on draft boards, but he’s not a slam-dunk to finish much better than last year when he was WR30 in PPR.”
– Pierre Camus (Fantasy Endgame)
Tyreek Hill (WR – MIA)
“Tyreek Hill (WR14 in the rankings) had a disappointing 2024 season. The veteran was drafted as a top-three wide receiver, only to finish as the WR21, averaging 10.5 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. While many have blamed Tua Tagovailoa‘s health on Hill’s struggles, that’s inaccurate. The veteran averaged 7.9 targets and 12.4 fantasy points per game in the 11 contests Tagovailoa started. He would have ranked as the WR19 on a points-per-game basis with that 12.4 average. Hill is on the wrong side of 30 and struggled last year. Fantasy players shouldn’t draft him as a high-end WR2.”
– Mike Fanelli (FantasyPros)
“After rattling off 1,000 yards in five straight seasons, Tyreek Hill failed to meet that mark in 2024. Hill also had the fewest total touchdowns for any season of his career, with 6. Could some of that be attributed to Tua Tagovailoa missing time, or are we seeing the beginning of the end? Once Tua returned to the saddle for Miami, the Dolphins offense revolved around getting the ball out of his hand as quickly as possible, with Jonnu Smith and De’Von Achane benefitting. Currently, Hill is the WR14 in the ECR,which is simply too rich of a price to pay for fantasy managers that are hoping for a bounce back.”
– Ed Birdsall (Talking Points Sports)
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