Rookie hype runs wild every offseason, but savvy dynasty managers know that not every first-year player is worth the investment. In fact, some of the most talked-about rookies in fantasy football end up being costly mistakes in long-term formats. To help you avoid those traps, we’ve asked our collection of Featured Pros to highlight the overvalued dynasty rookies to avoid heading into the 2025 season. Whether it’s inflated draft capital, poor landing spots, or long-term uncertainty, these players carry more risk than reward based on current market value. Before you lock in your rookie draft picks, make sure to review this expert-driven list to avoid setting your dynasty team back.
Overvalued Dynasty Rookies to Avoid
Who is an overvalued rookie RB based on early rookie rankings that you’ll be avoiding in dynasty drafts and why?
RJ Harvey (RB – DEN)
“For me, it has to be RJ Harvey in Denver, who is ranked as RB6 and 11th overall in SuperFlex drafts. The Broncos have a history of deploying a strong running back by committee. The team used their second-round pick on him, which says a lot, but they still roster Audric Estime and Jaleel McLaughlin. Both RBs averaged over 4 yards per carry last year in limited snaps behind now departed Javonte Williams. Harvey could be the guy, but spending that kind of draft capital seems very risky given what we know.”
– Andrew Hall (FantasyPros)
Cam Skattebo (RB – NYG)
“For the most part, I feel the top RBs are being valued appropriately in dynasty rookie drafts. However, there is one RB/WR back-to-back ECR ranking that deserves highlighting: Cam Skattebo versus Jayden Higgins. FWIW, in both rookie drafts I’ve been in, I’ve seen Higgins go after the Arizona State RB. Skattebo was a Day 3 RB selected 105th overall (albeit missed Round 3 by three draft slots), and Higgins was selected 34th overall. “Reaching” for the running back with a clearer path to Year 1 production versus selecting a fringe Round 1 WR tends to be a poor process that doesn’t work out in the long run, especially when that WR is attached to C.J. Stroud.”
– Andrew Erickson (FantasyPros)
“At the time of this writing, Cam Skattebo is ranked as the 7th best rookie RB, and while that feels appropriate based on the talent in this year’s draft, his long-term outlook is murky. The Giants have Tyrone Tracy reprising his starting role and a Brian Daboll favorite, Devin Singletary, returning as well (though Singletary is a potential cut candidate). It’s possible Skattebo could carve out a role, but he’s more of a plug-and-play type than a 3-down back. Given that skillset, projected usage/competition, limited ceiling, and the Giants offense, I’d much rather snag a Tony Pollard or James Conner type (who currently bookend Cam Skattebo in overall dynasty RB rankings) that I know will have weekly contributions, than draft a forever taxi-squad member in Skattebo.”
– Avery Thrasher (The Branded Sports)
“Cam Skattebo is a hard-nosed runner, whose greatest strength is his ability to break tackles. The main issue I have is his lack of speed and explosiveness. Cam is downright slow for an RB (forty time 4.65). That might cut it in the Big 12, but not in the NFL, especially when you have to play the defending champion Eagles twice a year, who have Jalen Carter and Jordan Davis clogging the middle. The lack of speed, combined with the Giants’ shaky offensive line, is not a good combo for a player currently ranked at Rookie RB 7, imo. Ringo does love saying his name though…Skattebo!!!”
– Mark Ringo (Sleepers and Busts)
Quinshon Judkins (RB – CLE)
“Based on my rankings and slight worries with Quinshon Judkins, I won’t be drafting him much in rookie drafts. The draft capital was great for his outlook, but I still can’t select him before Kaleb Johnson or R.J. Harvey in rookie drafts. The Browns also drafted Dylan Sampson in the fourth round after selecting Judkins, which is telling. Judkins is likely the early down hammer without much pass-game upside. Even as an early down option, I have some lingering concerns with Judkins as a player who has ranked no higher than 82nd in yards after contact per attempt over the last two years (per PFF). I won’t be crying myself to sleep at night after missing out on Judkins.”
– Derek Brown (FantasyPros)
“This is tough because loving the player and hating the situation go right into this. However, it is hard to argue that Quinshon Judkins fell into a mess in Cleveland. While he will have every opportunity to win that job, what kind of offense will Cleveland be in the next few years? Is their QB of the future on their roster currently, and will this coaching administration survive another failed Browns season? There are simply too many questions that need to be answered, and despite the unbelievable talent Judkins possesses, his newfound situation in Cleveland is reason to be out on chasing after him in rookie drafts.”
– Ed Birdsall (Talking Points Sports)
Omarion Hampton (RB – LAC)
“Omarion Hampton, ranked as the RB2 in 2025 dynasty rookie drafts per, is overvalued due to his likely timeshare with Najee Harris in the Chargers’ backfield, limiting his immediate fantasy impact. His ground-heavy running style lacks the receiving upside prized in PPR leagues, and Greg Roman’s committee-based scheme further clouds his path to a workhorse role. Compared to rookie receivers in the same range with a far higher ceiling, Hampton’s top 5 ADP feels inflated. Dynasty managers should consider pivoting to players with better short-term roles or long-term positional value, like high-upside WRs or TEs, at similar draft costs.”
– Aaron St Denis (Fantasy Sports Advice Network)
Dylan Sampson (RB – CLE)
“Dylan Sampson (RB9 and 23rd overall in the rankings) is someone I have no interest in picking in dynasty rookie drafts. The former Tennessee star landed in a crowded backfield, headlined by second-round pick Quinshon Judkins. Furthermore, Jerome Ford is staying in Cleveland after agreeing to a reworked contract. While he could carve out a secondary role behind Judkins, Sampson doesn’t offer enough upside to be ahead of Elijah Arroyo (24th), Harold Fannin Jr. (31st), and Terrance Ferguson (32nd) in the overall rookie rankings. Furthermore, I would rather take a shot on Jayden Blue (RB10) and Jarquez Hunter (RB13) than draft Sampson.”
– Mike Fanelli (FantasyPros)
Who is an overvalued rookie WR based on early rookie rankings that you’ll be avoiding in dynasty drafts and why?
Matthew Golden (WR – GB)
“Matthew Golden in Green Bay feels like a risky pick to me. He’s going at WR4 and 12th overall, which doesn’t leave much left for a value increase. I think this is probably his best possible outcome, and in Green Bay, that’s asking a lot. The Packers have a bad history of utilizing rookie receivers correctly recently. Golden could be the exception to that rule, but I’m not trusting it myself. I’d rather pass on him for others with higher upside and pay a premium later if he ends up being the guy he’s being drafted to be.”
– Andrew Hall (FantasyPros)
“I’ll lead this off by saying I’m lower than consensus regarding Matthew Golden heading into the NFL Draft. With the selection of Golden and then the team following that up by selecting Savion Williams (round 3) later in the NFL Draft, I don’t think Golden will be the team’s “true WR1.” Those correlated moves speak more to Green Bay continuing its wide receiver-by-committee approach. Even if they don’t and the team seeks to run more of the offense through Golden, I don’t know if he has the high-end target-drawing ability to reward their faith. Golden finished his collegiate career with an 18.7% target per route run rate and 1.85 yards per route run (per PFF). Neither of those metrics screams “future alpha WR1″ in the NFL.”
– Derek Brown (FantasyPros)
Pat Bryant (WR – DEN)
“Pat Bryant‘s rookie ADP has skyrocketed since he was selected in the third round by the Denver Broncos. He was ranked much lower pre-draft, and the track record of WR “large reaches” in the middle rounds is not great. Bryant ran a 4.61 40-yard dash at 204 pounds and had a later breakout at the age of 20. Round 3 WRs hardly hit anyway, so consider me skeptical that Bryant is truly Sean Payton’s “next Michael Thomas.” Give me another first-year RB in Round 3 of my rookie drafts.”
– Andrew Erickson (FantasyPros)
Travis Hunter (WR, CB – JAC)
“I am not a Travis Hunter truther. Is he talented? Absolutely! However, this is the NFL, where elite players have spent their entire careers honing skills at their respective positions; his focus has been split. Additionally, his body has far more wear than typical rookie WRs, given his penchant for playing both sides of the ball. It’s unknown how much this will impact his sustainability in the NFL, but something to consider, nonetheless. He currently ranks as the No. 3 overall rookie (WR1) and is nestled around Tee Higgins, DeVonta Smith, Jalen Hurts, and Joe Burrow in overall dynasty rankings. Given this projection, I’d prefer to see if anyone in my league is willing to overpay for him and get more picks in this year’s draft and/or posture for future drafts. Remember: think long-term in dynasty.”
– Avery Thrasher (The Branded Sports)
Jack Bech (WR – LV)
“Jack Bech goes to Las Vegas, where he instantly earns the nickname “BlackJack” Bech. Bech’s strength is his sure hands, but his lack of speed is enough of a concern for me to bet against him. Bech’s forty time was only a 4.5, which doesn’t exactly instill fear into the hearts of NFL defensive backs. Add in the fact that the Raiders want to feature RB Ashton Jeanty and focus on TE Brock Bowers in the passing game, and Bech’s fantasy outlook dims under the headline stars in Las Vegas. With a current rookie ranking at WR 8, Ringo thinks drafters who bet on BlackJack Bech will go bust.”
– Mark Ringo (Sleepers and Busts)
Luther Burden III (WR – CHI)
“Luther Burden III, ranked as a top-5 rookie WR in 2025 dynasty drafts, is overvalued due to his landing spot with the Chicago Bears, where he faces a crowded target hierarchy behind DJ Moore, Rome Odunze, and potentially Colston Loveland. His college production relied heavily on schemed touches, and he may struggle to earn consistent targets as a rookie in a complex Ben Johnson offense. At his early first-round ADP, the risk of delayed fantasy relevance outweighs his long-term potential. Dynasty managers should pivot to a WR like Tre Harris of the Chargers, who has a clearer path to immediate volume.”
– Aaron St Denis (Fantasy Sports Advice Network)
“Luther Burden III headed to Chicago just feels like a mess. Burden will have to now contend with D.J. Moore, Rome Odunze, Cole Kmet, D’Andre Swift, and fellow rookie Colston Loveland for offensive touches in 2025. Not a great sign if fantasy managers are looking for immediate production from the former Iowa Hawkeye. While the Bears are a new hot spot due to the arrival of new HC Ben Johnson, do not be drawn in by the hype on this one unless someone departs via a trade. Burden cannot be considered anywhere near the first round of rookie drafts, barring any other personnel movement.”
– Ed Birdsall (Talking Points Sports)
Savion Williams (WR – GB)
“While Savion Williams (WR14 and 40th overall in the rankings) is far from a first-round pick, I have no interest in drafting the former TCU playmaker. The Packers used their first-round pick on Matthew Golden, making him the first wide receiver the team selected on Day 1 since 2002. More importantly, Green Bay has other options at wide receiver with more fantasy appeal, including Jayden Reed and Romeo Doubs. Unless Williams finds a role in the backfield behind Josh Jacobs and alongside MarShawn Lloyd, I doubt he will develop into a fantasy-relevant option. I would rather take a shot on Jaylin Lane (WR23 and 64th overall in the rankings) with hopes of him eventually becoming Jayden Daniel’s No. 2 wide receiver than draft Williams.”
– Mike Fanelli (FantasyPros)
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