16 Fantasy Football Busts Experts Avoid (2025)

As you prepare for your fantasy football drafts, avoiding early-round mistakes is just as important as hitting on league-winning picks. That’s why we’ve gathered insights from our collection of Featured Pros experts to help you sidestep potential landmines at two of the most critical positions: running back and wide receiver. In this article, our experts identify their top early RB and WR fantasy football busts, players who may be overvalued based on current ADP and could fail to deliver the return you’re expecting. Before you lock in your first few picks, make sure you’re not drafting someone who could sink your season.

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Fantasy Football Busts to Avoid

What RB in our consensus top 24 should fantasy football managers fear the most as potential busts?

De’Von Achane (RB – MIA)

“Miami Dolphins De’Von Achane’s 2025 ADP places him as a high-end RB1, often drafted in the late first or early second round, which sets lofty expectations for consistent production. His 2024 season showed a stark contrast in performance, averaging 20.9 PPR points per game with Tua Tagovailoa at quarterback but only 6.9 without him, highlighting his dependency on a healthy quarterback. The Miami Dolphins’ offensive line, which had the sixth-lowest run-blocking grade in 2024, could continue to hinder his rushing efficiency, as evidenced by his drop from 7.8 yards per carry in 2023 to 4.6 in 2024. Competition from backups like Jaylen Wright and potentially Alexander Mattison or Ollie Gordon II may reduce his touches, especially in short-yardage or third-down situations where his smaller frame (5’9″, 188 lbs) has struggled, converting only 9 of 17 runs for first downs in 2024. These factors-quarterback dependency, a weak offensive line, and backfield competition-combined with his injury history (six games missed in 2023), make Achane a risky pick at his current ADP due to potential inconsistency and limited workload.”
– Brandon Murchison (RotoBaller)

James Cook (RB – BUF)

“James Cook (RB14 in the rankings and 35th overall) finished last season as the RB8, averaging 15.7 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. However, fantasy football players should be nervous about drafting him as a high-end RB2. He had four rushing touchdowns and five receiving scores over his first two years in the NFL. By comparison, Cook had 16 rushing touchdowns and two receiving scores last season, leading the league in rushing touchdowns. More importantly, he saw 30 fewer rushing attempts than the season before and had 43.1% of his fantasy production come from reaching the end zone. Cook’s a clear-cut touchdown regression candidate. Furthermore, the star running back and the Bills are in the middle of messy contract talks, which could lead to a holdout. I would rather draft Kenneth Walker III (RB16) and RJ Harvey (RB24) over Cook.”
– Mike Fanelli (FantasyPros)

“Among the consensus top 24 running backs for 2025 Half PPR leagues, James Cook (RB14) stands out as a notable bust candidate. His performance relies heavily on volume in Buffalo’s high-powered offense, but his inconsistent workload and limited goal-line carries raise concerns. James Cook‘s bust potential is further amplified by his reliance on big plays, as his 4.4 yards per carry in 2024 suggests modest efficiency. The Bills’ backfield could also see increased competition from emerging talents like Ray Davis, who may steal valuable carries. If Buffalo’s offense shifts toward a more pass-heavy approach, Cook’s fantasy football value could take a significant hit.”
– Aaron St Denis (Fantasy Sports Advice Network)

“Stay away from James Cook. While he posted a strong 2024 on the surface, his fantasy value was propped up by 16 rushing touchdowns- his previous high was 6. Maybe even more concerning is that Cook’s route participation dropped from 45.9% in 2023 to just 27.4% in 2024, as the Bills leaned on Ty Johnson on passing downs, limiting his PPR upside. He’s also holding out of OTAs— wanting a new contract worth 15 Mil per season. With James’ declining pass-game involvement, touchdown volatility, and potential holdout, Cook is a risky pick at his current RB1/RB2 borderline ADP.”
– James Emrick-Wilson (Armchair Scouting)

“James Cook is coming off a massive 18 total touchdown season and has been vocal about wanting to be paid as a top back. There has been some speculation that if a contract isn’t agreed upon, he could miss regular-season time. Combine that with Josh Allen‘s featured goal-line role and a talented backup running back in Ray Davis pushing for playing time, if Cook can’t match his touchdown production from a year ago, fantasy football owners are likely to be disappointed in 2025.”
– Lee Wehry (FantasyPros)

James Conner (RB – ARI)

“James Conner has managed to produce despite the circumstances, retain his role despite competition on the team, and defy father time. He’ll be 30 this season, so I expect some regression, and his 2024 passing numbers seem like an exception given the team’s status and something sustainable for this season. Trey Benson should have a more active role in his second year.”
– Mauricio Gutierrez (Estadio Fantasy)

David Montgomery (RB – DET)

“”Bust” is a strong word, but David Montgomery has obstacles in his path to justifying his ECR of RB20. The biggest of those obstacles is Jahmyr Gibbs, who’s proven to be one of the most talented RBs in the league. Montgomery has averaged 16.8 and 15.8 touches a game in Gibbs’ first two seasons. Gibbs and Montgomery combined to average more than 33 touches a game in 2024. I’ll bet the under on 33 touches a game for Detroit RBs in 2025, and I’ll bet the under on 15.8 touches a game for Montgomery. We could also see a dip in Montgomery’s TD total. He’s scored 13 and 12 touchdowns the last two years, as the Lions ranked first and fifth in scoring those two seasons. If the Lions scale back Montgomery’s usage to give Gibbs more snaps, or if the Detroit offense has hiccups after losing offensive coordinator Ben Johnson to the Bears, Monty’s TD total could slip. He’s a quality running back, but I see Montgomery as more of a low-end RB2 or high-end RB3 than midrange RB2.”
– Pat Fitzmaurice (FantasyPros)

Kyren Williams (RB – LAR)

“It feels like Groundhog Day all over again – another offseason, another round of analysts fading Kyren Williams. But this year, the concerns are more justified, in the last year of William’s rookie contract. Despite a monster workload in 2024 (nearly 400 touches, 87% snap share, both second to only Saquon Barkley), Williams was wildly inefficient – ranking near the bottom in explosive run rate, missed tackles, and YAC per attempt (akin to Najee Harris‘ numbers in 2024) with fumbles to boot. The Rams spent legit draft capital on Blake Corum in 2023 (who Sean McVay thinks is a stud) and Jarquez Hunter in 2024 (who the Rams traded up for) while publicly embracing the NFL trends of a more committee-driven backfield approach this offseason. Williams could still deliver RB1 numbers on sheer volume alone, but if that volume even slightly dips, it will be tough for him to live up to his ADP.”
– Andrew Erickson (FantasyPros)

“I’ll be avoiding Kyren Williams at his RB11 price tag. His stranglehold on volume could come to an end with the addition of the explosive Jarquez Hunter to this backfield. In 2025, Williams ranked first in snap share, second in opportunity share, and first in red zone touches. Last year, Williams was wretchedly inefficient. Among 46 qualifying backs, he ranked 44th in explosive run rate, 37th in missed tackle rate, and 40th in yards after contact per attempt (per Fantasy Points Data). Blake Corum was similarly mediocre on a per-touch basis. Hunter has the juice to earn the RB2 role and significantly cut into Williams’ workload in 2025. When that happens, Williams will come tumbling down to the RB2/3 ranks.”
– Derek Brown (FantasyPros)

Chuba Hubbard (RB – CAR)

“Chuba Hubbard carries significant bust potential in 2025 due to the Panthers’ increasingly crowded backfield, where he must compete with Rico Dowdle and rookie Trevor Etienne for touches. Despite rushing for 1,195 yards and 10 touchdowns last season, his role is uncertain as Carolina shifts toward a more aggressive passing attack, fueled by Bryce Young‘s anticipated year 2 leap. The arrival of rookie wide receivers Tetairoa McMillan and Jimmy Horn Jr. suggests the team is focusing on expanding its aerial offense, which could reduce Hubbard’s opportunities. Even though he has been productive on a per-touch basis, his workload may diminish if he loses goal-line duties or third-down snaps. Fantasy managers banking on RB1 production could find themselves disappointed this season.”
– Lawrence Iacona (Gridiron Experts)

Kenneth Walker III (RB – SEA)

“Kenneth Walker III – The Sam Darnold, I know and love, finally showed up last year and saw ghosts in the playoffs, when the Vikings got smoked by the Rams in Arizona, even with a partisan Vikings’ crowd cheering them on. Seattle coughed up $100 million for Darnold, which is a huge gamble considering how bad he looked in the playoffs. Without the stout Vikings’ defense, offensive line, and weather-controlled climate to support him, I think Darnold will find the going to be a lot tougher in Seattle. That’s bad news for the Seahawks’ offense, where Kenneth Walker III needs a lot of TDs to justify his current, lofty ranking at RB 16. And when you factor in that Walker III might have to cede some snaps to teammate Zach Charbonnet, this fantasy pie slice is simply too small for Mark Ringo’s big appetite.”
– Mark Ringo (Sleepers and Busts)

“Kenneth Walker III may sit at 16th in the consensus top 24, but he carries significant bust potential heading into the 2025 season. Despite Klint Kubiak’s zone-heavy scheme seemingly suiting his running style, Walker faces a perfect storm of red flags: a new system to learn in a contract year, a concerning injury history, and one of the NFL’s worst run-blocking offensive lines. He’ll also compete with Zach Charbonnet, who fits the scheme well and could steal passing-down and red-zone work. With Sam Darnold leading what’s expected to be a struggling offense, touchdown opportunities will be scarce. All signs point to a frustrating RBBC situation with a capped ceiling for Walker.”
– Avery Thrasher (The Branded Sports)

Chase Brown (RB – CIN)

“One player that I was all in on last year, I am nervous about drafting this year, and that is Chase Brown. Brown finished as the RB14 in FPPG last year, but his FPPG pace when Zach Moss was on the field would have been good for RB32. Tahj Brooks, whom the Bengals selected in the 6th round, had more MTF than Ashton Jeanty during the 2023 season. Brooks is also a natural pass catcher. There is a chance that Brown could be a high-end RB2 again, but there is also a solid chance that he is splitting time when everyone on the roster is healthy, which caps his ceiling.”
– Nick Penticoff (Fantasy Football Astronauts)

What WR in our consensus top 24 should fantasy football managers fear the most as potential busts?

Tyreek Hill (WR – MIA)

“Tyreek Hill (WR14 in the rankings and 30th overall) was a top-five pick in most redraft leagues last season. Unfortunately, he was a fantasy bust, ending the year as the WR21, averaging 10.5 half-point PPR fantasy points per game, a lower average than Adam Thielen’s (11.6). Furthermore, his six receiving touchdowns matched his career low from his rookie season. More importantly, Hill saw 2.1 fewer targets and 6.5 fewer fantasy points per game when Tua Tagovailoa didn’t play or left early with an injury. The veteran is on the wrong side of 30, has dealt with injuries the past few years, has an injury-prone quarterback, and is the subject of trade talks. Garrett Wilson (WR17) and Davante Adams (WR18) are lower in the rankings. Yet, I would rather draft both over Hill.”
– Mike Fanelli (FantasyPros)

“Tyreek Hill. The worst-case scenario is … well, it’s pretty close to how the 2024 season played out. When Tua Tagovailoa missed time with a concussion, the Miami offense ran aground. When Tua came back, he tended to throw shorter passes, targeting De’Von Achane and Jonnu Smith more frequently, and Hill and Jaylen Waddle less frequently. Hill dealt with a wrist injury, and his efficiency numbers plummeted across the board. (His 1.75 yards per route run were a career low.) Hill is 31, his quarterback is fragile, and the Miami offensive line is in rough shape. It’s possible the Cheetah has a bounce-back season, but there are too many potential hazards here for me to bet on him.”
– Pat Fitzmaurice (FantasyPros)

“Tyreek Hill enters 2025 as one of the riskiest early-round picks in fantasy football. He finished last season as WR33 in points per game, with just two 100-yard games alongside a healthy Tua Tagovailoa (11 games as WR18 in PPG) – a far cry from the elite production fantasy managers drafted him for. His efficiency cratered, with yards per route run dropping to 1.75 – less than half his 2023 mark – all while battling a wrist injury. Now 31, Hill is approaching the dreaded age cliff for speed-reliant receivers, and a late-season sideline outburst only adds to the concerns about his role/stability in Miami. The game-breaking upside might still be there, but the red flags around health, chemistry, and declining performance make Hill a logical bust candidate that should be avoided.”
– Andrew Erickson (FantasyPros)

“Tyreek Hill (WR14) is another potential bust candidate among the top 24 wide receivers for 2025 Half PPR leagues. His 2024 performance in Miami was hampered by inconsistent quarterback play, and at age 31, his elite speed has started to show signs of decline. Miami’s offensive struggles and potential reliance on a run-heavy scheme could further limit his target volume. Fantasy managers should be cautious, as his high ranking may not match his 2025 production. Tyreek Hill’s bust risk is compounded by Miami’s unsettled quarterback situation, which could continue to hinder his ability to produce consistent fantasy points in 2025. His reliance on deep targets makes him vulnerable to defensive schemes focused on limiting big plays, potentially capping his upside. Additionally, any further decline in his athleticism could erode his status as a top-tier fantasy asset.”
– Aaron St Denis (Fantasy Sports Advice Network)

“Tyreek Hill is a high-risk fantasy pick in 2025 due to declining production, injury concerns, and age-related regression. After back-to-back 1,700-yard seasons, he struggled in 2024, finishing as WR18 with 218.2 PPR points, posting 959 receiving yards and six touchdowns, his lowest total since 2019. A wrist injury impacted his consistency, and Miami’s offense also regressed, ranking 22nd in points per game, further limiting his fantasy upside. At 31 years old, Hill is no longer the same dominant force, and his ability to consistently deliver WR1 performances is uncertain. While he may still have big weeks, fantasy managers should expect volatility rather than reliable elite production.”
– Lawrence Iacona (Gridiron Experts)

“Tyreek Hill’s top 15 wide receiver price tag makes no sense, considering what we saw from Hill last year. With Tua Tagovailoa back, in Weeks 8-16, Hill was the WR24 in fantasy points per game while ranking 39th in yards per route run and 34th in target share (per Fantasy Points Data). Hill is a low-end WR2 in the best-case scenario for 2025. His current ranking screams BUST for this season. ”
– Derek Brown (FantasyPros)

Ladd McConkey (WR – LAC)

“Ladd McConkey’s 2025 ADP positions him as a high-end WR2, often drafted in the third or fourth round, banking on a sophomore season of progression after a solid 2024. In 2024, he recorded 1,149 receiving yards and 7 touchdowns, averaging 15.1 PPR points per game (WR16), but his production heavily relied on a 74.5% catch rate in a pass-heavy (52.4%) Chargers offense. His slight frame (6’0″, 186 lbs) and 2.1 yards per route run suggest struggles against physical cornerbacks, potentially capping his upside in contested-catch situations. Additionally, the Chargers’ shift towards a more run-heavy scheme under Jim Harbaugh in 2025, with the addition of running backs Najee Harris and first-round draft pick Omarion Hampton, may reduce passing opportunities, making McConkey a risky pick at his current ADP.”
– Brandon Murchison (RotoBaller)

Davante Adams (WR – LAR)

“Talent isn’t up for debate with Davante Adams, but his production last year was largely tied to volume. He consistently required 11 to 13 targets per game. That’s not going to happen with the Rams, where Puka Nacua is clearly the primary WR. Stafford is a clear upgrade for him, but he’ll need to be extremely efficient to be consistent.”
– Mauricio Gutierrez (Estadio Fantasy)

Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR – SEA)

“In seventeen games last season, Jaxon Smith-Njigba had over one hundred yards only three times and scored six TDs. Njigba just doesn’t have the speed or burst to generate big plays. He’s a slot WR, which is great in PPR leagues, but not as valuable in Half PPR settings. And while it’s true D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett are no longer in Seattle, the Seahawks’ new starting QB, Sam Darnold, still gives Ringo reason for pause when it comes to Smith-Njigba’s fantasy outlook. Darnold laid an egg last year in the playoffs for the Vikings, and that was in the weather-controlled dome of State Farm Stadium. Smith-Njigba’s current lofty consensus ranking at WR 12 is way too risky for fantasy football’s king salmon, Mark Ringo.”
– Mark Ringo (Sleepers and Busts)

Malik Nabers (WR – NYG)

“Malik Nabers enters his second season with undeniable talent, but the situation in New York remains highly unstable. The Giants’ quarterback room (featuring a declining Russell Wilson, turnover-prone Jameis Winston, and untested rookie Jaxson Dart) offers no clear path to consistent, high-level passing production. Nabers will also contend with the NFL’s toughest projected strength of schedule and one of the league’s worst offensive lines, ranked 27th in pass-block win rate in 2024. That combination limits both his target quality and downfield opportunities. Despite his upside, Nabers is more likely to be limited by his environment than to make a major leap in Year 2.”
– Avery Thrasher (The Branded Sports)

Zay Flowers (WR – BAL)

“Even after two respectable seasons (WR29, then WR24), drafting Zay Flowers at WR22 means you’re expecting him to hit his absolute ceiling. Any wide receiver that I take in the top 24 should have some path to a top 3 finish at the position, but that simply doesn’t exist with Zay Flowers. The Ravens’ passing volume is anemic, ranking 31st in pass attempts in back-to-back years, and even with a 25% target share, that only translated to four touchdowns last season. Given his diminutive 5’9″ frame and with Derrick Henry still in the backfield, those precious red-zone opportunities are only going to shrink, making him more dependent on efficiency without a touchdown safety net. He’s a risky mid-tier WR2, banking heavily on a touchdown surge that just doesn’t seem likely given his size and the Ravens’ pass volume in 2025.”
– James Emrick-Wilson (Armchair Scouting)

Terry McLaurin (WR – WAS)

” The Washington Commanders added Deebo Samuel and strengthened their offensive line this offseason after averaging the sixth-best PPG last season. Last season, Terry McLaurin saw 117 targets, had 82 receptions, 13 touchdowns, and 1,096 receiving yards. He averaged 15.5 FPPG last season, which ranked 15th. McLaurin is another player I was in on last year that I’m not as comfortable with selecting this season because of his low target and high touchdown numbers. I think he can still be a solid fantasy asset, but he will be volatile week-to-week, and he probably won’t score as many touchdowns.”
– Nick Penticoff (Fantasy Football Astronauts)

Garrett Wilson (WR – NYJ)

“Garrett Wilson – The Jets’ new QB, Justin Fields, led DJ Moore to the best season of his career in Chicago, but has been anything but consistent throwing the football. Wilson doesn’t have a ton of talent in the receiver room in New York to draw the attention of defenses away from him, and just how much are the Jets going to throw? Wilson has broken 1,000 receiving yards in each of his three seasons, but hasn’t been known as a big-play threat. I don’t see Wilson making up for the lack of expected production in my projections with a double-digit receiving touchdown season, so I’m staying away from him as a top-24 wideout.”
– Lee Wehry (FantasyPros)