As the noted philosopher Ted “The Million Dollar Man” DiBiase once said, “Every man has his price.” Fantasy football gamers should espouse a similar philosophy: Every player has his price.
A player might be overpriced at his average draft position (ADP), but some players will be available later in a draft than their ADP would suggest. At some point, an overpriced player becomes a value.
Stay flexible in your fantasy football drafts and be ready to pounce on a bargain.
That said, it’s reasonable to go into a fantasy football draft with targets — players you’re hoping to draft at something close to their ADPs.
I’m in close 20 redraft leagues this year. Here are some of the players I’ve been targeting and have drafted in multiple leagues.
Fitz’s Fantasy Football Draft Targets: Must-Have Players
Quarterbacks
Rushing ability is a cheat code for quarterbacks. But most of the QBs who provide substantial rushing value are expensive in fantasy drafts — Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, Jayden Daniels.
You can turn a big profit by finding a quarterback who provides prolific rushing value but isn’t very expensive, and I think Maye can be that guy.
Maye started 12 games as a rookie. But if we exclude Week 18, when he only played three snaps before being pulled, Maye averaged 4.7 carries and 37.2 rushing yards. Over a full season, that would project to 632 rushing yards. I think Maye could do better than that.
As a redshirt freshman at North Carolina, Maye had 698 rushing yards in 14 games — and remember that college quarterbacks have sack yardage deducted from their rushing yardage. Maye lost about 200 yards in sacks that year, so he was really closer to 850 rushing yards.
Also, Drake Maye had two touchdown runs last season. In his two seasons as a college starter, he had 16 touchdown runs in 26 games.
Maye was also competent as a passer last year, even though his offensive line and pass catchers were trash — a 67.2% completion percentage, 6.7 yards per attempt. Those are solid numbers for a 22-year-old rookie with a terrible supporting cast. The Patriots still don’t have a great supporting cast for Maye by any means, but they have at least incrementally improved their pass-catching corps and offensive line.
Maye’s ADP as of late July was QB18. I have Maye at QB9 in my rankings, although I certainly won’t feel compelled to actually draft Maye as the QB9. I know I can get him somewhere in the mid-teens. I think he’s a flat-out steal at his current cost.
Running Backs
Surprisingly, I’ve heard a lot of fantasy analysts say that Irving is overpriced at his late-second-round ADP.
I had little interest in Irving last year after he clocked a sluggish 4.55 at the combine at only 192 pounds. I picked him up in waivers in one of my leagues, and Irving was a catalyst for me in a championship season.
Irving had 1,514 yards from scrimmage and eight touchdowns last season, and he played only about one-third of the Buccaneers’ offensive snaps over the first month of the season, when Rachaad White was still Tampa’s lead RB. Irving also had a toe injury at midseason that cut into his snap counts in a few games.
In fact, there were only seven games last season in which Irving played more than half of the Buccaneers’ offensive snaps, including their one playoff game. But in games where he did play more than half of the offensive snaps? In those seven games, Irving averaged 127.3 yards from scrimmage per game, with six touchdowns.
Irving averaged 3.93 yards after contact per attempt, according to PFF – tops among all RBs who had 60 or more carries. He ranked seventh in PFF rushing grade, ninth in breakaway percentage, and fourth in yards per route run (1.62) among RBs with at least 20 catches. And while yards per carry is sort of a bad, noisy stat, it’s still worth noting that Irving averaged 5.4 yards per carry.
And it all looked as good as the numbers suggest. Irving is one slippery, elusive dude.
I’d be quite pleased to get Irving somewhere near the 2/3 turn.
Get yourself a piece of the Seattle running game. It’s a good bet that the Seahawks’ ground game will thrive under new offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak and run game coordinator Rick Dennison.
The Kubiak-Dennison partnership has been running-game gold dating back to Dennison’s pairing with Klint’s dad, Gary Kubiak, in Denver in the 1990s and 2000s. Terrell Davis and Clinton Portis had some huge years in that era, and the Broncos squeezed big seasons out of less heralded RBs such as Reuben Droughns and Mike Anderson.
The Kubiak-Dennison scheme will include a lot of outside zone, which should suit Walker, who has averaged 4.54 yards per carry on outside-zone runs over his first three NFL seasons, per Ryan Heath of Fantasy Points. Walker has scored 26 touchdowns in 41 career games.
Charbonnet has impressed whenever he’s gotten an opportunity — and he’s had some opportunities in his two NFL seasons since Walker has had trouble staying healthy. Charbonnet averaged 3.35 yards after contact per carry last year and forced 32 missed tackles on 135 rushing attempts, per PFF — strong numbers. He had a pair of two-touchdown games last year in contests Walker missed. Charbonnet has also been a productive pass catcher, with 75 catches over his first two seasons.
I want to get either Walker or Charbonnet in every draft I’m in this year, and I’ll consider handcuffing them if I can do it affordably.
The Vikings traded for Mason this spring and immediately gave him a two-year deal that includes more than $7 million in guaranteed money. They have plans for him.
We’ve seen what Mason can do if he gets substantial carry volume. In the 49ers’ first five games of 2024, with Christian McCaffrey out, Mason averaged 107 rushing yards per game, 120 scrimmage yards per game, and 5.1 yards per carry.
Mason is a terrific fit for a Minnesota running game that’s heavy on outside-zone runs. The Vikings improved their offensive line in free agency, and head coach Kevin O’Connell is one of the best playcallers in the league.
Mason could have stand-alone value even if 30-year-old Aaron Jones stays healthy. If Jones were to miss time, Mason could deliver RB1 value.
Grab Mason if his draft cost is anywhere near his ADP of RB38.
Ekeler is being left for dead in ADP (RB49) even though he was productive when healthy last year and is playing in an exciting, up-and-coming Washington offense.
Ekeler scored double-digit PPR points in 8-of-12 games last season and finished RB31 in fantasy points per game. When Brian Robinson Jr. missed a pair of midseason games with a hamstring injury, Ekeler had 134 yards from scrimmage and scored three touchdowns in those two contests. Two of those TDs came against a tough Pittsburgh defense.
I’m not expecting a return to past glory for the 30-year-old Ekeler, but I think he’s a value in the later rounds.
Wide Receivers
London turned into a monster last year, finishing third in the league in targets (158), ninth in receptions (100), and fourth in receiving yards (1,271) while scoring a career-high nine touchdowns.
The 6-4, 213-pound London really popped when rookie QB Michael Penix Jr. made three starts for Atlanta at the end of the regular season. London had 22 catches for 352 yards and two touchdowns in those three contests, on a whopping 39 targets.
London fared well with Kirk Cousins quarterbacking the Falcons for most of last season. But Penix is taking over at QB for Atlanta this season, and with his abundant arm talent, I think Penix can be a rainmaker for London. The young receiver is my favorite second-round pick.
Ridley has topped 1,000 yards in each of the last two seasons. He was efficient in 2024, averaging 15.9 yards per catch and 1.86 yards per route run, even though the Titans had one of the worst QB situations in the league.
No. 1 draft pick Cam Ward takes over at quarterback for the Titans this season, and while he’s sure to hit some bumps as a rookie, Ward is an aggressive downfield thrower who should help boost Ridley’s fantasy value
Ridley has little target competition and should be the Titans’ undisputed alpha receiver, yet his ADP is only WR30.
Diggs is 31 years old and coming off a Week 8 ACL tear, which largely explains his sluggish WR38 ADP. But it was a “clean” ACL tear for Diggs with no other ligament or meniscus damage. Diggs’ was well ahead of schedule with his recovery this summer and is good to go for Week 1.
There’s no question that Diggs is going to be the No. 1 target for Drake Maye, who was surprisingly competent as a passer in his rookie season even though his offensive line and his WR corps were both awful.
Diggs has been in this sort of situation before. When he showed up in Buffalo in 2020, a lot of people were still under the impression that Josh Allen was a scatter-armed, below-average. Allen went ballistic in 2020 and threw for 4544 yards and 37 touchdowns, and Diggs had his best season ever: 127 catches, 1535 yards. eight touchdowns.
Obviously, we aren’t expecting those types of numbers for Diggs this year. He was in his prime when he went from Minnesota to Buffalo. Now he’s past prime and coming off a knee injury. But could Diggs have a 1,000-yard season as Drake Maye’s top target? I think he gets there easily if he plays at least 15 games.
Here’s a late-round dart throw. Admittedly, Mims could be a big nothing-burger this year, but the opportunity cost is minimal for a player with an ADP of WR58.
Mims scored six touchdowns over the Broncos’ last seven regular-season games and averaged 62 yards a game over that stretch. He did this despite having snap shares between 23% and 47% in all of those contests. From Week 11 on, Marvin Mims was WR26 in PPR fantasy points per game despite being in a part-time role.
Mims averaged 0.72 PPR fantasy points per snap in those seven games. To put that into perspective, last year’s WR1 in fantasy scoring, Ja’Marr Chase, averaged 0.38 PPR fantasy points per snap.
Some people are dismissing Mims as a gadget guy because so much of his yardage came on screens last year, and that’s true — he did make a bunch of big plays on screens. But as a rookie in 2023, Mims’ average depth of target was 15.1 yards. In both of his final two college seasons at Oklahoma, Mims averaged more than 20 yards per catch. He can succeed downfield, too.
What Mims did at the end of the year was very intriguing, and he’s still only 23 years old. Mims also played with the starts in the preseason, suggesting he’ll have a bigger role this year. He’s a fascinating value late in drafts.
Tight Ends
FantasyPros Real-Time ADP has Bowers coming off the board 21st overall. I think there’s a case to be made that Bowers is worth drafting close to the Round 1/Round 2 turn.
As a 21-year-old rookie, Bowers had 112 catches for 1,194 yards and five touchdowns. He finished 18th in PPR scoring among non-QBs, but had Bowers scored just two more touchdowns, he would have finished 12th.
And that was with Las Vegas having arguably the worst QB situation in the league. The Raiders have since acquired Geno Smith, who threw for 4,320 yards last season.
But perhaps the more important offseason addition was Chip Kelly, the Raiders’ new offensive coordinator. Kelly runs his offenses at a breakneck pace, which means more total plays, which means more opportunities for Bowers to produce fantasy points.
Bowers is a freak. He finished third among all pass catchers in receptions, behind only Ja’Marr Chase and Amon-Ra St. Brown, and he did it as a 21-year-old tight end playing with bad quarterbacks.
His phenomenal rookie season was no fluke. Bowers had 882 receiving yards and 14 touchdowns in 15 games as an 18-year-old freshman at the University of Georgia, playing in the SEC, the toughest conference in the nation.
A lot of fantasy managers abhor the idea of spending an early-round pick on a tight end, but Bowers is a unicorn. He’s worth it.
If I miss out on my top TE targets, I’ll wait until late in the draft and grab Ertz, whose ADP is TE18.
The 34-year-old Ertz had 66 catches for 654 yards and seven touchdowns last year, finishing TE7 in PPR fantasy scoring.
Ertz and rookie QB Jayden Daniels really clicked late in the season, with Ertz scoring six TDs in his last seven regular-season games. The veteran tight end wrapped up the season with 11 catches and 104 yards in a playoff loss to his old team, the Eagles.
Daniels is a star, and the Washington offense is on the rise. Ertz’s age will scare away a lot of drafters, but he showed last year that there’s still gas in the tank, and the price is right.
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