Hitting — or not missing badly — on early-round fantasy football picks can lay the groundwork for a championship campaign. However, nailing later-round fantasy football sleepers is also helpful for securing fantasy football hardware and bragging rights.
The following trio of fantasy football sleepers has an average draft position (ADP) in half-PPR leagues after the 120th selection. Additionally, they’re being overlooked within their position groups, with none drafted anywhere near fantasy starter range.
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Fantasy Football Sleepers: Undervalued Targets to Draft
Bhayshul Tuten (RB – JAX): 123.5 ADP/RB40
The Jaguars made sweeping offseason changes in their front office and on their coaching staff, with Liam Coen hired as the team’s head coach. Coen has been an offensive coordinator for the previous four years, with two stints in college at Kentucky (2021 and 2023), one with the Rams (2022) and one with the Buccaneers (2024). Sean McVay was Los Angeles’s play-caller in 2022, but Coen demonstrated his play-calling prowess for Tampa Bay last season.
Coen crafted a high-powered offense through the air and on the ground, and the latter was shocking after Tampa Bay’s inefficiency running the ball the previous season. Per SumerSports, the Buccaneers were 31st in expected points added (EPA) per rush in 2023 before surging to a tie for fifth in EPA per rush in 2024.
Understandably, Coen leaned on the run last season. According to RotoViz’s pace app, the Buccaneers were tied for the 12th-highest situation-neutral rush rate (46%) last season. His run rate aligned with Los Angeles’s 45% situation-neutral rush rate in 2022, when he was the offensive coordinator, and McVay was the play-caller.
Coen inherited Travis Etienne and Tank Bigsby in Jacksonville’s backfield. However, Etienne is in the final year of his rookie contract, and the Jaguars double-dipped at running back in this year’s NFL Draft, suggesting Coen and the front office were dissatisfied with the incumbents.
The organization picked Bhayshul Tuten with the second pick in the fourth round (104th overall), making him the seventh running back selected, markedly earlier than they picked LeQuint Allen (236th overall). Tuten is an elite athlete.
Bhayshul Tuten was drafted in round 4 pick 104 in the 2025 draft class. He scored a 9.55 #RAS out of a possible 10.00. This ranked 95 out of 2106 RB from 1987 to 2025. https://t.co/8YPaqeP1Yp pic.twitter.com/NsdT22Og6Z
– RAS.football (@MathBomb) April 26, 2025
Fortunately, Tuten’s blazing speed showed up in his statistical contributions. According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), among 87 FBS running backs with at least 75 rush attempts in this year’s draft class, Tuten was tied for eighth in yards per rush attempt (6.3), second in yards after contact per attempt (4.47 YCO/A), fifth in breakaway yards percentage (54%) and third in PFF’s elusiveness metric.
Tuten isn’t built like a workhorse. He’s not small, either, though, clearing 205 pounds. Jacksonville’s backfield is wide open, and Tuten has a path to leading the position group in opportunities this year. As the RB40 in fantasy football ADP, gamers don’t need to pick Tuten as a Week 1 starter. Instead, they can draft him as a bench stash to see if the rookie carves out a fantasy-friendly role.
J.J. McCarthy (QB – MIN): 128.5 ADP/QB20
J.J. McCarthy played in only one preseason game before having his rookie season ripped away from him by a torn meniscus in his right knee. Fortunately, he’s healthy and participating in organized team activities (OTAs).
Minnesota’s offense is a dream for quarterbacks. Kevin O’Connell has leaned heavily on the passing attack in his three seasons as the team’s head coach. The following table has his situation-neutral pass rates and ranks via RotoViz’s pace app.
The Vikings were tied for fifth or higher in situation-neutral pass rate in O’Connell’s three seasons as the club’s head coach. Unsurprisingly, the pass-heavy tendencies and high-quality weapons, namely Justin Jefferson, have helped O’Connell’s quarterbacks post superb fantasy football results.
Among quarterbacks who played more than one game in 2022, Kirk Cousins was the QB11 (18) in points per game. Cousins was even better in 2023 before he tore his Achilles — QB7 (19.3) in points per game in 2023, albeit in only eight games.
O’Connell patched the quarterback room together with Joshua Dobbs, Nick Mullens and Jaren Hall for the rest of the season. Dobbs had efforts of 24.9, 25.1 and 17.9 fantasy points in Week 9 through Week 11, and Mullens had 19.1, 20.5 and 22.6 points in Week 15, Week 16 and Week 18 for the Vikings. O’Connell was truly making chicken salad out of chicken excrement.
Sam Darnold also had a career year in O’Connell’s signal-caller-friendly offense in 2024. With Jefferson, Jordan Addison, T.J. Hockenson, Aaron Jones and other ancillary weapons at his disposal, Darnold was the QB9 (18.8) in points per game among quarterbacks with more than one game played. The following table has Darnold’s career playing time and fantasy scoring.
McCarthy is entering arguably the most favorable situation for a first-year starting quarterback since Patrick Mahomes‘ first season as a full-time starter in 2018.
McCarthy might have the chops to make the most of his excellent situation. He had PFF’s sixth-highest passing grade among quarterbacks with at least 15 dropbacks last preseason, sandwiched between Brandon Allen in fifth and Mahomes in seventh, speaking to the massive grain of salt preseason numbers should be taken with. Still, McCarthy completed 11 of his 17 passes for 188 yards, two touchdowns and one interception, with one big-time throw and one turnover-worthy play.
McCarthy also had an intriguing final collegiate season. For instance, McCarthy had a higher PFF passing grade, lower turnover-worthy play rate (2.9 TWP% versus 3.6 TWP%), lower pressure-to-sack rate (16.8 P2S% compared to 23.2 P2S%), quicker time to throw (2.84 seconds versus 3.16 seconds) and higher adjusted completion percentage (80.0% compared to 77.5%) than Caleb Williams in their final college seasons.
McCarthy’s 9.0 yards per attempt (YPA), 5.9 big-time-throw% (BTT%) and 9.4-yard average depth of throw (aDOT) weren’t far off Williams’ 9.3 YPA, 6.2 BTT% or 9.2-yard aDOT. While many pundits are excitedly giving Williams a pass for his lousy rookie season, McCarthy isn’t generating the same fantasy buzz.
McCarthy’s rushing ability shouldn’t be slept on, either. According to PFF, McCarthy had 340 rushing yards, 6.0 yards per attempt, 3.30 yards after contact per attempt, 18 missed tackles forced and three rushing touchdowns in his final college season after tallying 402, 6.0, 2.48 and five in 2022. McCarthy’s a high-upside QB2 target in fantasy football drafts.
Joshua Palmer (WR – BUF): 168.0 ADP/WR70
The Bills adopted an “everybody eats” philosophy last year after trading Stefon Diggs to the Texans in the offseason. Josh Allen thrived, winning the NFL’s MVP Award. However, no one stepped up as a massive fantasy asset in the passing game.
Among wideouts who played over four games in 2024, Khalil Shakir was Buffalo’s best fantasy producer, tying for WR41 in half-PPR points per game (9.6). According to the data suite at Fantasy Points, Shakir was Buffalo’s only player with a route participation rate above 70%, barely clearing that mark at 70.8%.
Amari Cooper is a free agent after the team acquired him via a trade last year, and Mack Hollins is in New England after leaving as a free agent. Keon Coleman (68.8% route participation) was second on the Bills in route participation last year, and he’s an intriguing dart throw as a young player with a chance to improve in his sophomore campaign.
However, Joshua Palmer is an even cheaper dart throw at Buffalo’s potent offense. The 25-year-old wide receiver has shared receiver rooms with Keenan Allen, Mike Williams and Ladd McConkey, typically rendering him an ancillary weapon. Yet, he flashed some potential when the receivers ahead of him on the depth chart missed games. Unfortunately, Palmer didn’t step up in a relatively unimposing pass-catching corps behind McConkey last season.
Still, he joins a group where he could carve out a meaningful role this year. Palmer also adds a different dimension to Buffalo’s pass-catching corps as a high-caliber separator.
Josh Palmer is now easily the best separator on the Bills.
He ranked 10th of 160 qualifying receivers in route win rate last year. Next-closest Bills receiver (Amari Cooper) ranked 61st.
H/T: @Boorish_Sports @FantasyPtsData pic.twitter.com/o5Vbd8AjIB
– Scott Barrett (@ScottBarrettDFB) March 10, 2025
Shakir is like a human pinball with the ball in his hands, making him an outstanding catch-and-run wide receiver. Coleman was used as a vertical perimeter wideout, and Allen threw him 50/50 balls.
Allen didn’t have a wideout who frequently uncovered downfield as an easy button. Palmer could emerge as Allen’s easy button. Palmer’s ADP will likely surge if Buffalo’s beat reporters hype him up in training camp or Palmer performs well in the preseason.
However, if those things don’t happen, Palmer is a worthwhile dice roll at the end of drafts as the classic mystery-box stash through Week 1. Palmer will be a popular waiver wire suggestion after Week 1 if he has a high route participation rate and has any success against the Ravens on Sunday Night Football.
Instead of jostling with leaguemates to claim him, draft and stash him as a wait-and-see pick. If Palmer is stuck in a heavy rotation at wide receiver in Week 1, gamers can dump him.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
