As the eponymous official fantasy football host of the NFL, NFL.com may seem like a logical place to play fantasy football. And it is, but it’s also not without its quirks. Specifically, NFL.com’s default draft rankings have some very hot takes.
I already looked at the best values in these rankings, but today I’m looking at the most overvalued players in the current NFL.com rankings. As always, I’ll be using FantasyPros’ PPR expert consensus rankings (ECR) to help me find the players with the most egregious rankings. Let’s get started.
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Overvalued Fantasy Football Players to Avoid on NFL.com
Zack Moss (RB – CIN) | NFL.com Rank: 121/ECR: 272
Zack Moss is so massively overvalued on NFL.com that I almost missed him. To focus on relevant fantasy options, I filtered out all players outside of the top 200 in ECR. At 272, Moss is well beyond that threshold. Thankfully, I took the filter off just long enough to notice that the veteran running back is somehow ranked 121st in NFL.com’s default rankings, an absurd 151 ranks above his ECR.
Normally, with these write-ups, I stop to break down a player’s profile, explaining why their ranking or average draft position (ADP) on a particular site might differ from their ECR. In this case, I simply can’t. A 151-pick gap is so massive that it’s not even worth talking about. If you are drafting on NFL.com, I recommend you simply scratch Moss off your draft board.
Moss could fall multiple rounds past his rank and still be a terrible pick. At absolute best, he’s a pure desperation Flex play with limited handcuff value if Chase Brown were to miss time. At worst, he might be fourth in the backfield pecking order for the Bengals behind Brown, veteran passing-down back Samaje Perine and rookie Tahj Brooks.
Brandon Aiyuk (WR – SF) | NFL.com Rank: 53/ECR: 93
As a 49ers fan and yards per route run truther, I was all-in on Brandon Aiyuk heading into last season. Unfortunately, that didn’t work out, as he posted lackluster results (8.9 PPR points per game) before suffering a season-ending knee injury in Week 7.
However, looking back at how high expectations were for Aiyuk last year does help explain this rank. Aiyuk finished the 2024 draft season with an ADP of 35 overall, and that was with Deebo Samuel still on the team and viewed as arguably the 49ers’ top target.
With that said, Aiyuk is simply too high as the 53rd overall player on NFL.com. For one, he might not even be healthy to start the season. Recent reports indicate he will start training camp on the physically unable to perform (PUP) list. We also can’t just ignore how mediocre Aiyuk’s fantasy results were before his injury in 2024.
Aiyuk didn’t just struggle on the fantasy side, either. After being either at or near the top of the league in most efficiency metrics in his breakout 2023 season, he ranked 39th in Pro Football Focus (PFF) grade and 50th in yards per route run among qualified wideouts in 2024.
When he does take the field in 2025, there’s no guarantee Aiyuk will step back in as the 49ers’ top target. In his absence last season, George Kittle continued to dominate, Jauan Jennings emerged as a reliable weapon and even Ricky Pearsall flashed the talent that made him a first-round pick.
There is certainly a world where Aiyuk returns to full health and his elite form, eventually paying off this draft cost. But all the risks that come with his injury recovery, target competition and mediocre production from last year make him a very questionable pick inside the top 75 overall players.
Justin Fields (QB NYJ) | NFL.com Rank: 78/ECR: 112
In general, I don’t hate the idea of being high on Justin Fields. The jury is still out on his future as an NFL quarterback, but we know that he is capable of being an elite fantasy producer. With no other options on their roster besides Tyrod Taylor, who will be 36 by the time the season starts, the Jets intend to let Fields cook, for better or for worse. We are only a few years removed from Fields posting a top-five finish in points per game, thanks largely to his elite scrambling ability. There’s a real chance his QB18 ranking in ECR ends up laughable in hindsight.
However, the big issue with this ranking is where it puts Fields in the context of other quarterback rankings on NFL.com. NFL.com’s top 200 rankings feature 29 quarterbacks; all but four of them are ranked lower than their ECRs, with 20 being at least 10% lower. Fields, on the other hand, is ranked 36% higher, elevated from a middling QB2 to a borderline-elite QB1.
Fields is ranked as the QB7, ahead of players like Baker Mayfield, Kyler Murray and Bo Nix. He is over 50 picks ahead of last year’s QB6, Jared Goff, who is down at 129 overall. Fields’ upside is tantalizing, but it’s not that valuable. Snag a starting receiver or running back option in the seventh round instead, then wait to take one or two of the many quarterbacks whose prices are much lower on NFL.com.
Marquise Brown (WR – KC) | NFL.com Rank: 138/ECR: 87
After Aiyuk, Marquise Brown isn’t the wide receiver with the second-widest gap between his NFL.com rank and his ECR. Terry McLaurin, Diontae Johnson and Tre Harris each have larger percentage differences between their two rankings. But at least each of those players comes with a logical potential argument for being well ahead of the market.
McLaurin is coming off a great season and is tied to an elite young signal-caller. Johnson is an elite route-runner whose biggest issues are off the field. Harris is an explosive second-round rookie with unknown upside who landed in a great situation. But there’s simply no logical way to end up this high on the man they call Hollywood.
Heading into the 2025 season, Brown is set to be the fourth option in the Chiefs’ passing game. Xavier Worthy emerged down the stretch of last season, Rashee Rice looks like he will be ready for Week 1 and even the shell of Travis Kelce should still command targets. Meanwhile, Kansas City’s offense is not the fantasy points gold mine it once was.
Even while ranking second in pass rate over expected, they finished just eighth in terms of receiving fantasy points in 2024. Worthy was their only wide receiver to finish inside the top 48 fantasy options, and he didn’t exactly light the world on fire as the WR33. Constant rotation, Patrick Mahomes‘ Gardner Minshew-esque average depth of target (aDOT) and a shift to run-heavy play-calling in the red zone all meant fewer fantasy points to go around for Kansas City’s receivers.
There are some reasons to be excited for Brown. Reports indicate that, before missing most of the season with a shoulder injury, he was meant to be a key part of the Chiefs’ passing offense. Mahomes has stated he plans to be more aggressive downfield coming off a Super Bowl loss and made comments indicating Brown will see a larger role. But these optimistic signs make Brown a worthwhile late-round flier, not a viable mid-round pick.
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Ted Chmyz is a fantasy football contributor for FantasyPros.com. Find him on Twitter and Bluesky @Tchmyz for more fantasy content or to ask questions.