While the 2025 NFL regular season is still months away, now is the time to start preparing for redraft leagues. Many factors go into fantasy football players winning their redraft league every year. However, the top factor is arguably avoiding players that will bust or are overpriced.
Let’s look at six players who are overpriced fantasy football draft values based on CBS ADP for redraft leagues.
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Overvalued Fantasy Football Players to Avoid on CBS
Michael Penix Jr. (ATL) – ADP 146.3 | QB19
After spending the first 15 weeks on the bench, Penix started the final three games of his rookie year. However, he averaged 33.3 pass attempts, one touchdown, an interception, and 14.2 fantasy points per game as the starter, with Atlanta leaning even more on the run game. More importantly, his production was inflated because of a meaningless Week 18 performance (25 fantasy points). While fantasy players should like him as a low-end QB2 target in superflex leagues, Penix shouldn’t get drafted ahead of Trevor Lawrence, Tua Tagovailoa, or J.J. McCarthy.
Omarion Hampton (LAC) – ADP 49.8 | RB20
Fantasy players should have high hopes for Hampton’s long-term outlook in dynasty leagues. However, his redraft value is far less appealing. The Chargers signed Najee Harris in free agency earlier this offseason. Furthermore, the team placed the rarely used unrestricted free agent tag on J.K. Dobbins, increasing the likelihood that he returns to Los Angeles in 2025. Therefore, Hampton could find himself in a three-way backfield, fighting for consistent touches, especially early in the year. While he is my favorite Chargers running back, Hampton shouldn’t get drafted as an RB2.
Tony Pollard (TEN) – ADP 69.6 | RB27
Last year, Pollard finished as the RB21, averaging 11.3 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. Yet, it was the third consecutive season his fantasy points per game average had declined. Furthermore, he finished 27th among running backs in rushing touchdowns (five) despite ranking eighth in attempts (260). While the Titans improved their offensive line in free agency, it remains one of the worst units in the NFL. Pollard is a solid RB3 option for fantasy players. However, Quinshon Judkins and Isiah Pacheco shouldn’t get drafted after the veteran.
CeeDee Lamb (DAL) – ADP 4.8 | WR2
There is no reason to think Lamb will be a bust in 2025. Last year, he finished as the WR8, averaging 14.2 half-point PPR fantasy points per game despite missing Dak Prescott for half the season. However, fantasy players shouldn’t draft him as a top-five pick and the second wide receiver off the board. That honor belongs to Justin Jefferson. The Cowboys traded for George Pickens this offseason, creating meaningful competition for targets. While the superstar should be a late first-round fantasy pick, Lamb’s current ADP is too high.
Tyreek Hill (MIA) – ADP 31.6 | WR14
Unfortunately, Hill was a fantasy bust in 2024, finishing as the WR21, averaging 10.5 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. Furthermore, his fantasy success was drastically tied to Tua Tagovailoa’s health. He averaged six targets and 6.6 fantasy points per game in the seven contests Tagovailoa didn’t play or left early. By comparison, Hill averaged 8.1 targets and 13.1 fantasy points per game in the 10 contests Tagovailoa finished. Yet, his 13.1 fantasy points per contest average would have only made him the WR15 on a points-per-game basis last year.
Jonnu Smith (MIA) – ADP 80.6 | TE7
Smith was the TE4 last year, averaging 10.5 half-point PPR fantasy points per game, posting a higher average than Mark Andrews (9.5) and Travis Kelce (9.2). Furthermore, the veteran led Miami with 88 receptions and eight receiving touchdowns, setting career highs in both categories. However, fantasy players should avoid drafting him anywhere near his current ADP. Smith will be on the wrong side of 30 when the 2025 season starts. More importantly, players rarely have a breakout year this late in their career and maintain that level of success.
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Mike Fanelli is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @Mike_NFL2.