Throughout the discourse about ‘the best way’ to play best ball, one fact remains: Certain strategies are more up and down than others year to year, but one that remains reliable is Hero RB, or Anchor RB as it can sometimes be known.
Splitting the difference of more extreme strategies like Zero RB and Robust RB, Hero RB still allows access to running backs with incredible upside, while also mixing in the top-end wide receivers, quarterbacks and tight ends.
In 2024, Hero RB looked a lot different from how it had looked over the years, as wide receiver thirst pushed things to an extreme level. Typically, though, when talking about a Hero RB build, we’re referring to one running back in the first two rounds and then no more until after round six.
Best Ball Draft Strategy & Advice: Hero RB
The Hero RB Prototype
The key part to a Hero RB build is deciding on the type of running back you’ll make your Hero RB. In 2024, having Saquon Barkley on your team meant you had a 48% advance rate to the best ball playoffs. Just by drafting Barkley, you gave yourself a one-in-two shot at making the rounds where bigger money comes into play.
In 2023, Christian McCaffrey was on a massive 41.9% of Underdog Best Ball Mania finals teams and 31.8% of DraftKings Milly Maker final teams, with Jahmyr Gibbs and Breece Hall the only other players on 15% or more of rosters on DraftKings or above 22% on Underdog.
Barkley and McCaffrey had quintessential Hero RB seasons, out-playing all the running backs drafted near them, and single-handedly dragging teams to the playoffs. This followed on the back of a strong 2022 for Hero RB builds, where in the DraftKings 969-team championship round, 18.6% were a Hero RB build, by far the most of any best ball strategy.
In 2021, Pat Kerrane wrote about how running backs in the first two rounds have a bust rate of 40%, actually higher than in the dead zone. However, the first two rounds were still the most typical for delivering legendary running back seasons, akin to McCaffrey’s 2023 season.
The types of running backs capable of having a heroic year are those with clear pass-catching work, goal-line responsibilities and backs on a good offense who will score plenty of points. Barkley offset losing goal-line touchdowns by making up for it with incredible volume and efficiency elsewhere. While it worked out for Barkley and those who drafted him, that’s not always a repeatable recipe.
Historical Success
The modern era of best ball kicked into gear when Underdog came onto the scene. Their Best Ball Mania contest has become an excellent one to measure success in, as they make the data easy to access, and the sample size is very large.
Year to year, we see fluctuations around how micro-strategies perform, with player performance massively impacting how things turn out, but below is a year-by-year breakdown of how it’s performed since 2021.
| 2021 |
|
|
|
| Number of RBs |
Advance Rate |
| 4 |
16.20% |
| 5 |
18.30% |
| 6 |
18.40% |
| 7 |
16.90% |
| 8 |
13.50% |
This was a very nice year for Hero RB teams that selected a maximum of five or six backs. Less or more than that many resulted in worse advance rates. This reaffirms the point that if we spend up on running back, we likely don’t need lots of bites at the apple.
| 2022 |
|
|
|
| Number of RBs |
Advance Rate |
| 4 |
13.90% |
| 5 |
15.30% |
| 6 |
15% |
| 7 |
12.80% |
| 8 |
11.80% |
This wasn’t a good year, with all Hero RB builds failing to advance at the baseline rate of 16.7%. The first four picks were all running backs in 2022 with Jonathan Taylor, Christian McCaffrey, Austin Ekeler and Derrick Henry taken at the top of drafts.
However, this was a great year for wide receiver-heavy drafts, with teams that took four wide receivers in the first six rounds advancing at a rate of 20%.
| 2023 |
|
|
|
| Number of RBs |
Advance Rate |
| 4 |
14.60% |
| 5 |
16.50% |
| 6 |
16.6% |
| 7 |
15.50% |
| 8 |
12.00% |
This was a better year with five and six running back builds close to the neutral advance rate of 16.7%. Five running backs were part of the first round, a notable drop from the previous year when there were seven. Drafters were starting to turn to more wide receiver-heavy strategies to start their draft.
| 2024 |
|
|
|
| Number of RBs |
Advance Rate |
| 4 |
19.80% |
| 5 |
17.90% |
| 6 |
17.10% |
| 7 |
17.30% |
| 8 |
15.50% |
While 2024 brought with it strong advance rates for anywhere between five and seven running backs per roster, it also brought standout rates for four-running back builds, with the strongest advance rate of any team built within this method across the four-year sample.
Of course, this was part of a bigger trend for 2024, with running backs proving integral to success. The table below shows advance rates for teams that took two running backs before round five.
| Number of RBs |
Advance Rate |
| 4 |
22.80% |
| 5 |
22.00% |
| 6 |
21.20% |
| 7 |
19.70% |
| 8 |
17.40% |
2025 Outlook
We shouldn’t expect to be able to copy and paste success from 2024 to 2025, or any year for that matter. The running back landscape was faded far too drastically in 2024, but that will bring a correction and possible overcorrection in 2025.
Thirteen running backs made the top 50 of Underdog’s average draft position (ADP) in 2024, compared to 31 wide receivers. This year, 15 running backs and 28 wide receivers are going in the top 50, but the difference is much more noticeable at the top of drafts. Twelve wide receivers are drafted inside the top 24, compared to 10 running backs. In 2024, it was 16 wide receivers versus eight running backs
Whereas last year Saquon Barkley was available in round two, Derrick Henry in round three and Josh Jacobs in round five, this year the market seems to be anticipating those players and others being more valuable. The dead zone running backs look more questionable, and it could result in some risky builds if you’re counting on running back in that zone. Instead, it looks like it could be another strong year for Hero RB candidates, but do they tick all the boxes?
Can They Be Heroic?
To be heroic in the way we need a Hero RB build to be, we need players that thread the needle in the category of touchdowns, receiving work and volume.
Typically, a running back can make up for a lack in one category if they excel elsewhere, but the strongest candidates grade out well across the board.
(Data via Fantasy Points and nflverse)
As we can see, Saquon Barkley has a below-average percentage of carries inside the 5-yard line, due to the Eagles’ tush push obsession, but his target share is close to average. His opportunity share, which measures how many running back attempts a player gets, was incredibly strong. Barkley was excellent in 2024, and his biggest battle will be bucking the trend of backs coming off such massive workloads, but he ticks enough boxes on paper and is a hard fade.
Bijan Robinson has trended upwards throughout his career and was above average in all three categories last year. Don’t be surprised if he’s the overall RB1 this year.
Jahmyr Gibbs has as much upside as anyone in the first two rounds of drafts, but so far, he’s been in a split backfield with David Montgomery and never earned the goal-line role within that share. If Gibbs can wrestle more goal-line carries away, he could be a truly elite player, but for now, if we’re using him in Hero RB builds, it likely pushes us to draft one more back than if you have Barkley or Robinson.
Christian McCaffrey is, by all accounts, much healthier this year than last. While the injuries are a reason for concern, it’s hard not to chase his upside in best ball, even if McCaffrey had the single-lowest advance rate in 2024. McCaffrey’s ability to earn targets at a truly incredible rate could be even stronger this year without Deebo Samuel sucking up targets near the line of scrimmage, and with Brandon Aiyuk still recovering from his knee injury.
Ashton Jeanty is the wild card of the first two rounds with no NFL data to date, but it’s clear he has a path to 300+ touches in his rookie season and showed enough in college for us to believe he can be the archetype Hero RB. The biggest concern could be veteran Raheem Mostert getting goal-line work, but Mostert recently turned 33 and didn’t look great in 2024.
Derrick Henry saw the lowest target share of any running back currently drafted in the first two rounds, but he made up for it with excellent volume and a truly elite 90% of Baltimore’s carries inside the 5-yard line. The Ravens don’t like giving Lamar Jackson goal-line rushes, and this should hold firm for 2025, if Henry can continue to stay healthy.
Bucky Irving firmly took control of the Buccaneers’ backfield in 2024, and nothing we’ve heard since suggests otherwise. His numbers were below average in all categories in 2024, making him fragile as a Hero RB pick, but his explosive run rate was the seventh-highest among backs with 100+ attempts, which makes him a hard fade. If picking Irving as your Hero RB, it might be worth adding a running back in round six or seven with a clear path to volume.
De’Von Achane faces an interesting situation this year with no Raheem Mostert to steal goal-line touches, or any touches for that matter. Achane also boasted a target share second only to McCaffrey in this sample. Given that Achane played more games, it could be seen as more impressive. The Dolphins’ offense isn’t an easy one to buy into, but what is the argument against making Achane a Hero RB? It’s not easy to see.
Josh Jacobs found himself the beneficiary of the Packers leaning run-heavy, along with MarShawn Lloyd missing almost the entire season. The target share wasn’t great, but it also wasn’t bad. If Jacobs keeps hold of the opportunity share, he’ll be a good pick this year. If Lloyd can wrestle some away, it could be tough for Jacobs to be heroic.
Jonathan Taylor saw the highest opportunity share of any running back in this category, but wasn’t an impressive back across the season. Forty-two percent of Taylor’s points came in three games last year, and while two of those three were in the best ball playoffs, it made it hard to advance teams that rostered him. Taylor’s path to relevancy could be much stronger if Daniel Jones is at quarterback, checking the ball down and not stealing goal-line work, like Anthony Richardson might.
Final Thoughts
Hero RB failed in 2025 in part because of the running back success elsewhere, and also because the wide receivers largely failed to pay off their inflated ADP. The good news is that 2025 ADP looks much more traditional and should provide better opportunities to build strong teams on paper.
Hero RB will allow access to the top receivers, the top tight ends, the top quarterbacks and one of the top running backs. It’s hard not to find that enticing. Remember, though, if you’re drafting a Hero RB build, typically five to six in total is all that’s required.
(Much of the data in this article relating to roster construction comes from RotoViz’s Roster Construction Explorer tool.)
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