As we get closer and closer to training camp, we’re about to enter the time of the year when fantasy football average draft position (ADP) fluctuates greater than at any other time. One little bit of news can send players rocketing up draftboards, and we have to face the fact that injuries could very well start impacting things sooner than we’d like. This time becomes crucial for making smart decisions in drafts. Here are four players to target and four players to avoid at current ADP on Underdog.
Fantasy Football Players to Target & Avoid: Best Ball ADP
Players to Target
It was a beautiful season for Tucker Kraft truthers, with their faith in him rewarded handsomely as he easily outplayed Luke Musgrave, who was drafted 60 picks earlier in best ball leagues. Kraft led the team with seven touchdowns, which was only one fewer than George Kittle (eight) and three fewer than Mark Andrews (10).
As we get closer and closer to training camp, we’re about to enter the time of the year when fantasy football average draft position (ADP) fluctuates greater than at any other time. One little bit of news can send players rocketing up draftboards, and we have to face the fact that injuries could very well start impacting things sooner than we’d like. This time becomes crucial for making smart decisions in drafts. Here are four players to target and four players to avoid at current ADP on Underdog.
Fantasy Football Players to Target & Avoid: Best Ball ADP
Players to Target
It was a beautiful season for Tucker Kraft truthers, with their faith in him rewarded handsomely as he easily outplayed Luke Musgrave, who was drafted 60 picks earlier in best ball leagues. Kraft led the team with seven touchdowns, which was only one fewer than George Kittle (eight) and three fewer than Mark Andrews (10).
Kraft was a yards-after-the-catch (YAC) monster, leading all tight ends with 50+ targets at a whopping 9.38 YAC. No other tight end had more than seven. If the Packers can be a more well-rounded offense with the addition of Matthew Golden, there’s no reason it couldn’t help Kraft elevate to the next level. His current ADP puts him at a discount of TE11, compared to the TE8 season he just accomplished.
This one might be slightly controversial, as there seems to be a steady drumbeat against Zay Flowers of late, but it might not be entirely warranted. Flowers finished last year as the WR22 in total half-PPR points, but now he is available as the WR31 in drafts.
Flowers had eight games with 70+ receiving yards or a touchdown and only six below 50 yards. The spike weeks generally weren’t what drafters hoped for in 2024, but Flowers was unlucky not to find the end zone more, having seen seven end-zone targets but only managing two end-zone touchdowns, and a total of four touchdowns across the season.
That number should positively regress this year, with Lamar Jackson trusting Flowers and seeing him as the alpha. We’ve only got to look at Flowers’ first-read target share of 30% to see that, especially as no other Raven is over 16%. If Flowers’ ADP was in the low 40s, the fade would make more sense, but here, attached to the best offense in football, it makes too much sense not to target him.
Look, we all get it, we’ve all done the Diontae Johnson dance enough times now to understand the downside, but… does he warrant being undrafted a year after being a top-70 pick? Before the chaos started in 2024, Johnson had three top-12 weekly finishes at the position and looked to be a good value.
Now in Cleveland, the question marks about both his temperament and quarterback situation are obvious and fair, but Browns beat reporters expect Johnson to have a starting role. If that happens, we know he can earn targets to a strong level. Nobody is suggesting Johnson is a league-winner, but he’s worth mixing in.
Talking about league winners, why has Brock Bowers’ ADP dropped from the one-two turn to 19th overall? Generally, drafters seem to be cooler on the rookie tight ends as the season bleeds on. However, as I talked about in this video, it feels like they aren’t appreciating enough just how good Bowers was last year, and there is still another level for him to ascend to with good quarterback play.
There simply aren’t many difference-makers at the position, and Bowers just had the third-most targets by a tight end ever. Imagine if they’d been quality targets.
Strategy: Target Those About to Rise
One quick tip that’s worth remembering at this time of year is to target players that might be primed to see a rise in their ADP. Veteran running backs like D’Andre Swift or Travis Etienne seem likely candidates, and after seeing their ADPs fall, rookies could easily bounce back. Luther Burden and Colston Loveland haven’t found the field yet, but nothing can cause an increase like training camp highlights.
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Players to Avoid
We enter year three of the Anthony Richardson era with no clearer idea of whether he can be a quality starting NFL quarterback or not. His 47.7% completion percentage is the lowest of any quarterback with 250 dropbacks since 2001, with this rate below even Tim Tebow’s worst season.
The Colts’ coaching staff looks to be on the hot seat, and prioritizing wins now with Daniel Jones makes plenty of sense. Another thought that Andrew Erickson recently pondered is what if the Colts use Tyler Warren in goal-line packages? Like he was in college. This would help to keep the quarterback safe from high injury situations, and would eat into Richardson’s upside if he were on the field.
The 2024 season ended well for Ladd McConkey with an excellent performance against the Texans, totalling 9/197/1 as the Chargers crashed out. However, it’s tricky not to take a wider view of the situation and have some apprehension about his situation heading into 2025.
The Chargers jettisoned both J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards from the roster, prioritizing running backs in both free agency and the NFL Draft. We’ve seen consistently over the years that given the chance, Greg Roman will lean into a run-heavy offense. While people can point to that not making as much sense with Justin Herbert, we’re seeing now with Lamar Jackson free from Roman, that this doesn’t necessarily correlate.
McConkey likely continues to play efficiently, but if there’s a drop in passing volume, it could severely hurt rosters that draft McConkey this high. He’s an easier click on full PPR sites, rather than Underdog.
One of the situations that will generate the most headlines in the coming days is the contract standoff between the Commanders and Terry McLaurin. The Commanders’ No. 1 WR is entering the last year of his contract with less than $3 million in guarantees remaining and coming off a career-high 13 touchdowns; his desire for a new contract is understandable.
Those 13 touchdowns, though, are cause for concern. McLaurin ranked second among wideouts in touchdowns scored but 15th in receptions, 12th in yards and 26th in yards per route run (YPRR). It’s very easy to see his fantasy output regressing if he’s unable to keep the touchdowns flowing. If this contract situation continues to be acrimonious, his price could drop to a more palatable place.
It’s always easier for players to climb in fantasy football ADP than fall. This is because auto-drafters scoop them up as they go along, and there’s a psychology to seeing a player falling and constantly being at the top of your queue that forces people to think they should now be clicking on that player.
Jonnu Smith has fallen nearly 50 spots in ADP in the last couple of months, but it still might not be far enough. Smith is coming off a clear outlier season in his seven-year career, with 2024 the only time he’d been above 600 yards or 50 receptions. It was also only the second time he’d scored more than four touchdowns.
A lot has been made about how Arthur Smith wanted to reunite with Smith for the third time in their careers after previous spells in Tennessee and Atlanta, but those weren’t great times for Smith’s fantasy relevance. Furthermore, we know this offense is going to run through what Aaron Rodgers wants. Would it be that surprising if he leaned towards Pat Freiermuth as his preferred target? The Steelers’ pass-catchers are a situation we don’t need to subject ourselves to.
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