Thankfully, the 2025 fantasy football season is just around the corner. Each year, fantasy players want to construct their team with a proper mix of good-value players and upside sleepers while avoiding players with high bust potential.
In the second part of an eight-part series, I identify two ADP values, two likely-to-bust candidates, and two potential sleepers from the AFC North.
- Fantasy Football Draft Kit
- 2025 Fantasy Football Expert Rankings
- Fantasy Football ADP
- Fantasy Football Trade Tools
Fantasy Football Draft Values, Busts & Sleepers: AFC North
Fantasy Football ADP Values
Chase Brown (CIN): ADP 26.8 | RB11
The Bengals did their homework on the 2025 NFL Draft running back class, leading many to worry about Brown’s featured role this season. However, Cincinnati waited until the sixth round of the draft to select Tahj Brooks. Furthermore, they only added Samaje Perine and his 20 rushing attempts from last year in free agency. Therefore, Brown will have no significant competition in the backfield this season. More importantly, he was a fantasy superstar after taking over as the starter last year.
Brown had 19 touches for 123 scrimmage yards and 17.3 PPR fantasy points over the first three weeks. However, he was the RB6 from Week 4 through Week 17, averaging 20.3 touches for 94.4 scrimmage yards and 18.3 fantasy points per game. The former Illinois star scored 13.1 or more fantasy points in 84.6% of those contests. More importantly, Brown was a significant factor in the passing game, averaging 4.5 targets per outing over the final 13 contests.
His 4.5 targets per game ranked third on the team behind Ja’Marr Chase (10.8) and Tee Higgins (9.5) from Week 4 through Week 17. Furthermore, Brown posted the same route participation rate (46.6%) as Jahmyr Gibbs and a higher target per route run rate (20% vs. 15%) than Saquon Barkley last season (per Fantasy Points Data). Josh Jacobs and Bucky Irving have a later ADP than the former Illinois star. Yet, I would draft Brown ahead of both.
DK Metcalf (PIT): ADP 51.2 | WR22
Last year, Metcalf was the WR32, averaging 12.7 PPR fantasy points per game. It was the lowest fantasy points per game average of the former Ole Miss star’s career since his rookie season in 2019. Unfortunately, Metcalf took a backseat to Jaxon Smith-Njigba. According to Fantasy Points Data, he averaged fewer targets per game (7.8 vs. 7.2), posted a lower target per route run rate (23% vs. 21%), and fantasy points per route run (0.44 vs. 0.38) than the second-year star.
However, Metcalf’s fantasy outlook for 2025 got a massive bump after the Steelers traded away George Pickens and did not add any other meaningful wide receiver in free agency or the NFL Draft. Furthermore, Aaron Rodgers loves targeting his No. 1 wide receiver. Last season, his top wide receiver averaged 10.7 targets and 17.4 fantasy points per game. While Arthur Smith wants a run-first offense, he has never had a quarterback like Rodgers at his disposal.
The closest Smith got was in 2019 and 2020 with Ryan Tannehill during A.J. Brown’s first two seasons in the NFL. Brown averaged 6.3 targets and 15.3 fantasy points per game over those two years. By comparison, a 15.3 fantasy points per game average would have finished as the WR9 over a 17-game pace last season and the WR13 in 2023. Don’t be surprised if Metcalf has that type of fantasy production with Rodgers under center.
Fantasy Football Bust Candidates
Mark Andrews (BAL): ADP 86.2 | TE7
Andrews had the best year of his career in 2021, finishing as the TE1, averaging 17.7 PPR fantasy points per game. Unfortunately, the veteran had one of the worst seasons of his career last year. While he finished as the TE6, averaging 11.1 fantasy points per game, Andrews looked washed and wasn’t part of the offensive game plan early in the season. Thankfully, he was the TE5 over the final 13 weeks, averaging 13.9 fantasy points per game.
After totaling 11 receiving touchdowns in 25 games the previous two years, Andrews had 11 last season. More importantly, he bounced back because of touchdown luck and not a significant increase in targets. Andrews averaged 2.8 targets per game over the first five contests. By comparison, the veteran averaged 4.6 targets per game over the final 13 weeks. Unfortunately, Andrews became a touchdown-or-bust tight end, averaging 11.4 fewer fantasy points per game when he failed to find the end zone.
Furthermore, the veteran has declined since his career year in 2021. Andrews’ 4.1 targets per game average from last season was the lowest of his career since his rookie year. Moreover, he has become significantly more touchdown-dependent over the past few years. Unfortunately, Andrews likely won’t have the same scoring luck he did last season with DeAndre Hopkins on the roster and the Ravens wanting Isaiah Likely to have a larger role. Fantasy players should avoid drafting him anywhere near his current ADP.
|
Year |
Tight End |
Receiving TDs Scored |
Fantasy Production from TDs |
Targets Per Game |
|
2024 |
TE7 (11.1) |
11 |
35.0% |
4.1 |
|
2023 |
TE5 (13.5) |
6 |
26.6% |
6.1 |
|
2022 |
TE3 (12.7) |
5 |
15.8% |
7.5 |
|
2021 |
TE1 (17.7) |
9 |
17.9% |
9.1 |
Jonnu Smith (PIT): ADP 125.8 | TE13
Smith had a much higher ADP earlier this offseason. He was the TE7 in the ADP and a seventh-round pick a month ago. Thankfully, his draft cost has declined since landing with the Steelers. Yet, Smith is still getting drafted way too early. Last year, he was the TE4, averaging 13.1 PPR fantasy points per game. The veteran set career highs in several categories, including fantasy points per game, receptions (88), targets (111), receiving yards (884), and touchdowns (eight).
Unfortunately, history suggests that Smith wouldn’t have similar production this season, even if he were still a member of the Miami Dolphins. Players rarely have a breakout year this late in their career and maintain that level of success. The veteran will be on the wrong side of 30 when the 2025 season starts. More importantly, he has never been a consistent fantasy factor with Arthur Smith as his play caller, despite the coach pushing Pittsburgh to trade for Smith earlier this month.
Last year, the Dolphins relied on Smith’s yards after the catch ability. According to Fantasy Points Data, he ranked 10th in the NFL in designed targets (22). The veteran also ranked 13th in the league in screen pass routes run (24), with 16.2% of his targets for the season coming on screens. Furthermore, Smith averaged 6.5 targets and 13.1 fantasy points per game in 2024. By comparison, he averaged 3.7 targets and 7.7 fantasy points per game in three years with Arthur Smith as the playcaller.
Fantasy Football Sleepers to Target
Jerome Ford (CLE): ADP 185.6 | RB55
Fantasy players should have had high hopes for Quinshon Judkins earlier this offseason. Unfortunately, the rookie is away from the team after getting arrested on domestic violence charges, putting his status for the season in doubt. Whether Judkins misses a few games, half the year, or the entire season, Ford and Dylan Sampson have received an uptick in fantasy value because of the situation. While many will rush to draft Sampson, I’m putting my money on Ford.
Last year, he was the RB33, averaging 9.6 PPR fantasy points per game. However, Ford averaged 14 touches for 78 scrimmage yards and 14 fantasy points per game in the six contests he played more than 20% of the snaps without Nick Chubb. Ford would have been the RB18 over a 17-game pace and the RB21 on a points-per-game basis with that fantasy average. Furthermore, the former Cincinnati star was one of the more efficient running backs.
According to Fantasy Points Data, Ford ranked fourth in yards per attempt (5.43), seventh in yards after contact per attempt (2.7), eighth in explosive run rate (6.7%), and 17th in missed tackles forced per attempt (17%) among 46 running backs with at least 100 rushing attempts last season. While Sampson will have a role in the passing game, don’t be surprised if Ford is the lead guy on the ground if Judkins gets suspended.
Cedric Tillman (CLE): ADP 186.2 | WR65
Many fantasy players will target Jerry Jeudy this year despite the Browns’ quarterback situation after the veteran finished last season as the WR13, averaging a career-high 14.2 PPR fantasy points per game. However, 16.8% of his fantasy production for the year came in the revenge matchup against Levi Wallace and the Denver Broncos. By comparison, the veteran averaged 12.5 fantasy points per game in the other 16 games, which would have ranked as the WR31 on a points-per-game basis.
Therefore, Tillman is an underrated late-round pick for fantasy players despite the team’s quarterback situation. Cleveland made minimum additions to their wide receiver room, signing kicked-around-the-league veteran Diontae Johnson. Hence, Tillman has no competition for the No. 2 wide receiver role despite missing significant time last season with a concussion. More importantly, the former Tennessee star was the team’s top wide receiver following the Amari Cooper trade before suffering a season-ending concussion in Week 12.
After totaling 3.4 fantasy points over the first six weeks, Tillman had 18.1 in his first game without Cooper. According to Fantasy Points Data, he had a better target per route run rate (22% vs. 18%), yards per route run average (1.69 vs. 1.67), first-round target share (25.7% vs. 23.5%), and fantasy points per route run (0.41 vs. 0.30) than Jeudy during the five weeks where both were healthy following the Cooper trade. Tillman is one of my favorite late-round draft targets.
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Mike Fanelli is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @Mike_NFL2.
