You have fantasy football drafts coming up? Me, too! Something like 10 of them by the end of the month.
There are a lot of players I won’t take in any of those drafts unless their prices unexpectedly plummet. Some are flat-out fades – players I believe to be mis-appraised and overpriced. But some of them are what I call “draft-arounds.”
The draft-arounds are good players. They aren’t land mines, but I do have some concerns about their outlooks and would prefer to let my competitors draft them.
Here are the players I’m drafting around.
Fantasy Football Players to Avoid
After averaging 10.3 targets per game in 2023, St. Brown averaged 8.3 targets per game in 2024. He went from 20.7 PPR fantasy points per game in 2023 to 18.6 last year.
St. Brown’s value dipped last year, but it didn’t crater. That’s because he scored a career-high 12 touchdowns and posted an obscene 81.6% catch rate.
That catch rate was 9- percentage points higher than his already outstanding 72.6% catch rate the previous two seasons. St. Brown probably isn’t catching 80% of his targets this year.
Additionally, will the Detroit offense continue to fly high without Ben Johnson, who vacated the OC job in Detroit for the HC job in Chicago? The Lions scored a league-high 70 touchdowns last year. Only eight NFL teams scored at least 50.
The emergence of Jameson Williams is a big reason for St. Brown’s target drop-off. Jamo isn’t going away.
The Sun God remains a sturdy, low-risk investment, but he might not provide a high yield. His FantasyPros Real-Time ADP in PPR leagues as of Aug. 22 was WR4, No. 7 overall. Nico Collins, Brian Thomas Jr. and Drake London have second-round ADPs, and I would draft any of them ahead of St. Brown.
Ah yes, the Rams’ receivers. No hate here; these guys are both terrific.
Admittedly, I’ve oscillated all offseason between “Hmm, won’t they cannibalize each other?” and “Nah, they’ll be fine.”
It’s possible Puka and Davante could both top 100 receptions and meet their season-long quotas on yardage. Bengals WRs Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins combined for a 62.4% target share in games they played together last year. Chase had 127 catches for 1,708 yards. Higgins had 73 catches for 911 yards in only 12 games.
Rams QB Matthew Stafford completed 340-of-517 passes for 3,762 yards last season. Let’s say Stafford repeated those numbers, and Puka and Davante combined for 62.4% of those targets, catches and yards. That would come to 323 targets, 218 catches and 2,415 yards.
Puka and Davante have Real-Time ADPs of WR6 and WR19, respectively. It’s not out of the question that both players meet expectations, but unlikely that both exceed expectations.
Other assorted concerns:
- Stafford has a bad back.
- Puka has scored nine TDs in 28 NFL games.
- Adams is 32.
You’d think Cardinals head coach Jonathan Gannon and offensive coordinator Drew Petzing would have a mandate to get Marvin Harrison Jr. going this year. The fourth overall pick in last year’s draft had 62 catches for 885 yards on 116 targets. If Harrison averages significantly more than the 6.8 targets per game he averaged last year, McBride is in line for a target haircut.
Then there’s the touchdown thing. McBride is allergic to touchdowns the way some people are allergic to pet dander or gluten.
“Regression is coming. McBride has to score more touchdowns.”
Yeah?
McBride’s yearly NFL TD totals: 1, 3, 3
McBride’s yearly Collegiate TD totals: 1, 4, 4*, 1
(* In 4 games)
Hey, McBride could have given Colorado State a touchdown bonanza if he hadn’t gotten hurt his junior year!
Um, sure. Meanwhile, we’re left with 17 touchdowns over a span of 89 games and seven years.
If the touchdowns come this year, McBride could outscore fellow TE George Kittle. However, McBride averaged 12.1 half-point PPR fantasy points per game last season, while Kittle has averaged 12.2 half-point PPR points per game over the last seven years. I have Kittle ranked ahead of McBride in half-point PPR, and I have no interest in drafting McBride late in the second round.
Running QBs are a fantasy cheat code, but, ideally, a running QB gives you some passing juice, too.
Fields’ rushing averages in 44 career starts: 9.3 attempts, 54.9 yards, 0.4 TDs
Fields’ passing averages in those starts: 25.1 attempts, 15.4 completions, 175.2 yards, 1.0 TDs.
Those work out to midrange QB1 numbers on a per-game basis. But, man…those rushing numbers are doing some heavy lifting.
There’s also a double injury risk with Fields. In addition to the heightened risk for a quarterback who runs so much, Fields could be rendered unstartable for fantasy if anything happened to WR Garrett Wilson, the only credible pass catcher on the Jets’ roster. If Wilson were to miss time, what would DraftKings or FanDuel set at the Over/Under for Fields’ single-game passing yardage against any decent defense? Maybe 134.5 yards?
I’d rather draft Drake Maye, who could provide near-Fields-level rushing goodness and much better passing numbers.
Moore had career lows in yards per catch (9.9), yards per target (6.9) and yards per route run (1.44) last season. His target share of 26.5% was solid, but it actually lagged the 27.6% target share that senior citizen Keenan Allen had in his 15 games with the Bears.
Allen is gone, but the Bears spent their first two draft picks on pass catchers (TE Colston Loveland and WR Luther Burden) and a lot of people are expecting a big jump for Rome Odunze (a top-10 draft pick in 2023).
While I’m generally not into vibes-based analysis, the vibes Moore gave off last season were pretty bad. Ask a Chicago Bears fan about Moore’s body language during games last year. It wasn’t great.
Maybe it was just unhappiness with the old coaching staff. Maybe Moore wasn’t clicking with young QB Caleb Williams.
With stiff target competition and the lack of chemistry between DJM and Caleb last season, I’m steering around Moore in drafts.
Cook scored 18 touchdowns last year after scoring nine in his first two seasons combined. It’s pretty wild that Cook found the end zone so often when Josh Allen also had double-digit touchdown runs.
Touchdown regression is inevitable for Cook; I think every sentient fantasy manager knows that.
More troubling is the “everyone eats” mantra the Bills have with all of their skill players other than Allen. They use three running backs. They use two tight ends. They use a big ensemble cast of wide receivers.
The Bills’ Ty Johnson actually led all NFL running backs in air yards last season. He’s going to play on passing downs and in the hurry-up offense. The Bills will also work in second-year RB Ray Davis.
Cook has a higher ADP than Chargers rookie RB Omarion Hampton. There’s a path to Hampton becoming a workhorse right away. There’s no such path for Cook.
Flowers is a quality football player, but he’s not a high-volume receiver, and he rarely draws targets near the end zone.
Although he was tied for 20th in WR targets last year, that top-20 finish was a product of survivor bias; Flowers played 17 games and finished with more targets than some WRs who were targeted more frequently on a per-game basis. Flowers averaged 6.8 targets a game.
Only seven of Flowers’ 116 targets came in the red zone.
The receivers directly behind Flowers in ADP are Tetairoa McMillan and Calvin Ridley. I’d much rather have either of those guys than Flowers.
The Broncos didn’t have a pass-catching tight end last year, so there’s excitement about the potential usage of newcomer Engram, who’s expected to play the “joker” role in Sean Payton’s offense.
That’s a key role for either a TE or RB in Payton’s offense, and it’s been filled by the likes of Jimmy Graham, Reggie Bush and Darren Sproles in the past. It’s a role that emphasizes run-after-the-catch ability, and Engram shines in that area.
While Courtland Sutton is going to be Denver’s lead receiver, running backs always catch a lot of passes in Payton’s scheme, and Marvin Mims Jr., Troy Franklin and Pat Bryant are other candidates for targets.
Engram is probably going to rotate at tight end with Adam Trautman, who’s the superior run blocker. Engram might not have the target upside that some people are imagining. He’s also 30 and has an extensive injury history.
Engram is being drafted ahead of fellow TEs David Njoku, Tucker Kraft and Tyler Warren. Those guys are all better picks.
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