Dynasty fantasy football is my favorite format. One of the best things about dynasty is that it is much more possible to make win-win trades than in a traditional redraft league. Because each manager in a given dynasty league is striking a unique balance between win-now and win-later, different assets will have different values to different teams. One of the best general pieces of dynasty trade advice to remember is that you can make trades without having to “beat” your league mates, and that’s glorious.
There’s still room in dynasty to make classic win-lose trades, though, offloading overvalued players at just the right time. That is what we are here to do today: Identify players being overvalued in the current dynasty market. To get an idea of consensus market values, I’ll be using FantasyCalc’s trade-based rankings. These rankings are based entirely off trades from real dynasty leagues, so they’re usually a very accurate estimation of the average market for a player. Check out our latest dynasty trade advice, including three players to sell now.
- Dynasty Fantasy Football Draft Kit
- Dynasty Rookie Draft Simulator
- DBro’s Dynasty Rookie Draft Primers
- Dynasty Fantasy Football Rankings
Dynasty Trade Advice: Players to Sell
Baker Mayfield (QB – TB)
I’m here for the Baker Mayfield renaissance as much as the next person. It’s been great to see Mayfield make a home for himself in Tampa after being tossed aside by the Browns in favor of a serial sexual predator (alleged). But I just can’t get on board with the 30-year-old being the QB13 in dynasty leagues.
The big 3-0 isn’t a death sentence for dynasty value at quarterback, the same way it is for other positions. But Mayfield is still the only quarterback above that threshold ranked inside the top 19 on FantasyCalc. The next closest 30-year-old signal-caller is Jared Goff, all the way down at QB20. Are we sure Mayfield is a substantially better dynasty asset than his fellow first-overall pick?
Mayfield did outproduce Goff in 2024. He outproduced most quarterbacks, finishing as the fantasy QB4 with over 22 points per game. But he did so on the back of a 7.2% touchdown rate, the second-highest in the NFL and by far the highest mark of his career. Even if it wasn’t the highest mark of his career, we know passing touchdown rates that high tend to regress. Mayfield also added more value than usual with his legs, rushing for more than double his previous career high in yards and tying his career high with three rushing scores. But he’s still not a true dual-threat quarterback. If that touchdown rate regresses, his production will fall off.
There are other red flags in Mayfield’s profile. He’s just two years removed from being essentially done as a starter, benched for P.J. Walker and released midseason by the Panthers. Now, his career-saving situation in Tampa may be trending in the wrong direction, with aging weapons and Liam Coen having moved to Jacksonville.
At the end of the day, dynasty doesn’t have to be too complicated. Mayfield is the QB13, according to FantasyCalc. Two of the next three signal-callers directly behind him are Kyler Murray and Brock Purdy. Murray is just over two years younger, while Purdy is only 25 years old. I would argue they both project very similarly to Mayfield heading into this season, as backend QB1s with top-five upside if everything breaks right. If you can trade Mayfield for anywhere near his value on paper (including for either of those younger passers straight up), I’d do it.
Terry McLaurin (WR – WSH)
In many ways, the argument against Terry McLaurin is the same as the argument against Baker Mayfield. Like Mayfield, McLaurin is coming off a career year that was driven primarily (in this case, entirely) by touchdowns. Like Mayfield, he was an old rookie, turning 30 in September. Turning 30 is a lot scarier proposition for wide receivers than it is for quarterbacks.
Once again, the easiest way to identify an overvalued dynasty player is to compare their projections and age to those of other players with similar values. McLaurin is the WR25 in FantasyCalc’s rankings (which I want to stress again are 100% based on real trade data). The next two players after him are Zay Flowers (five years younger) and DJ Moore (two years younger). Yet, both are in the same tier as McLaurin in FantasyPros’ half-PPR expert consensus rankings (ECR) for 2025.
Really, the issue is that right now McLaurin’s price is inflated by the fact that he finished 2024 as the WR6, which, in turn, was massively inflated by the fact that he stayed healthy and scored 13 touchdowns. Yes, switching from a rotating cast of ‘Remember That Guy’ to Jayden Daniels probably accounted for some of McLaurin’s career year. But that career year was only in the touchdown department. Between 2020 and 2023, he averaged 4.8 receptions on 7.8 targets for 66 yards per game. In 2024, he averaged 4.8 receptions on 6.9 targets for 64.5 yards per game.
Given that we know receiving touchdowns have very high variance from year to year, I expect McLaurin to return to his borderline WR2 self in 2025. If (when) that happens, no one is paying top 25 dynasty receiver prices for a 30-year-old borderline WR2. McLaurin is also likely to be a particularly liquid asset right now because of his recent trade request. He is probably going to re-sign in Washington eventually, but fantasy managers love to make moves based on early August news. Take advantage of someone who thinks they are buying the dip to offload McLaurin before things get scary.
J.J. McCarthy (QB – MIN)
I’m going right back to the high-end QB2 ranks, as J.J. McCarthy is just behind Baker Mayfield at QB14 in FantasyCalc’s rankings. I don’t understand why. Before missing his entire rookie year with a torn meniscus, McCarthy wasn’t considered a can’t-miss prospect. He was the fifth signal-caller taken in the 2024 NFL Draft, two picks after Michael Penix Jr. Penix, who played well in a small sample last season, is down at QB19.
To be fair, Penix was a very old rookie, while McCarthy was very young. Maybe dynasty managers like that McCarthy is still just 22, so 2025 can basically be treated as his rookie season. But then let’s compare him to an actual 2025 rookie in Cam Ward. Ward, who is less than a year older than McCarthy, was the first-overall pick in this year’s draft. Even accounting for the fact that this was a weaker quarterback draft class, he was a better overall prospect than McCarthy. He also isn’t coming off a major knee injury. Where is he ranked? At QB17, three spots behind McCarthy.
To be fair, there’s one huge thing McCarthy has over these other young passers — his situation. Kevin O’Connell, one of the best offensive coaches in the league, is putting all his eggs in McCarthy’s basket. That has to count for something, as does the fact he gets to throw the ball to Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison and T.J. Hockenson. But quarterback is a position where situation often matters less than you might think. This is especially true when we are talking about a complete unknown, who might not even be capable of league-average quarterback play.
It’s definitely within the reasonable range of outcomes that McCarthy (with some help from Jefferson and O’Connell) makes this take look absolutely stupid by the end of the year. If he can put up stats anywhere close to what Sam Darnold did in this Vikings offense last season, he will be a top-10 dynasty signal-caller before you can say skol. As of now, he’s simply overpriced compared to other young quarterbacks. If you can sell a passer who has never had a 3,000-yard season in either the NFL or the NCAA for borderline third-round start-up value, do it.
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Ted Chmyz is a fantasy football contributor for FantasyPros.com. Find him on Twitter and Bluesky @Tchmyz for more fantasy content or to ask questions.