FantasyPros publishes approximately 7.7 million pieces of weekly fantasy football content to help you win your league and eventually take home fantasy gold. It can be difficult to read such a vast amount of content, which is why we’ve rounded up a few of the most actionable, can’t-miss stat nuggets you absolutely need to know each week to aid with fantasy football start sit decisions.
We’ve broken down this weekly TL;DR (Too Long; Didn’t Read) article by each of the four main skill positions in fantasy football (quarterback, running back, wide receiver and tight end), with at least two stats per position. Click on each author’s byline to read the entire article. Good luck this week.
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TL;DR Fantasy Football Week 4
Must-Know Quarterback Fantasy Football Stats
Geno Smith (QB – LV)
Geno Smith was outstanding in the Week 3 loss to the Washington Commanders. The veteran completed 65.5% of his 29 pass attempts for 289 yards and three touchdowns to Tre Tucker, scoring 26.1 fantasy points. While he struggled in the Week 2 loss to the Los Angeles Chargers, Smith has been a productive fantasy streaming option in the other two games this year. The veteran quarterback has averaged 325.5 passing yards, two touchdowns and 21.8 fantasy points per game in those two matchups, scoring 17.5+ points in both outings.
While he lacks season-long upside, Smith is an excellent streaming option in Week 4. Last week, Dak Prescott had only one passing touchdown and 12 fantasy points against the Bears. Unfortunately, the Dallas Cowboys’ offense fell apart after CeeDee Lamb left the game with an ankle injury. However, Chicago couldn’t stop a nose bleed, let alone a capable passing attack, before the Week 3 contest. They surrendered 3.5 passing touchdowns and 28.1 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks over the first two weeks, allowing 22.2+ points in both matchups.
Jordan Love (QB – GB)
Jordan Love should be treated as a top-eight fantasy quarterback in Week 4. The Cowboys have allowed the most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks this season. Dallas allowed Jalen Hurts to finish as the QB8 with 24.3 fantasy points in Week 1, Russell Wilson to finish as the QB2 with 31.3 fantasy points in Week 2 and Caleb Williams to finish as the QB1 with 29.1 fantasy points in Week 3.
Must-Know Running Back Fantasy Football Stats
TreVeyon Henderson (RB – NE)
I’m trusting Mike Vrabel to play his explosive rookie running back more this week and hold Rhamondre Stevenson and Antonio Gibson accountable for their costly fumbles last week. What could go wrong? Snark aside, TreVeyon Henderson has recorded 51, 40 and 47 scrimmage yards in his first three professional contests, and he hasn’t struck paydirt yet. We project Henderson to have 55.5 scrimmage yards and 0.4 touchdowns against the Panthers.
I have my eyes on loftier outputs, expecting Henderson to get the most extensive work of his young career in a Charmin-soft matchup this weekend. According to Pro-Football-Reference, the Panthers have surrendered 114.3 rushing yards per game, five receptions per game and 34.7 receiving yards per game to running backs this season. Running backs have gashed Carolina for 5.72 yards per carry. The Panthers have allowed only one touchdown to running backs, but that’s likely a fluke given their inability to bottle them up.
Henderson was one of the NFL’s preseason darlings. He returned a kickoff for a touchdown and has tallied 138 scrimmage yards in three contests. Henderson doesn’t necessarily need a bell-cow role against Carolina’s leaky run defense to reach at least 70 scrimmage yards and score his first touchdown in the NFL.
However, he might have one if Vrabel doesn’t trust Stevenson and Gibson to protect the football. Henderson will remind gamers who drafted him why they were excited to pull the trigger on him during fantasy drafts with at least 70 yards and a touchdown against the Panthers this week.
David Montgomery (RB – DET)
Last week, David Montgomery was unstoppable in the win over the Baltimore Ravens. The veteran ended Week 3 as the RB2, totaling 12 rushing attempts for 151 yards, two touchdowns and 29.4 PPR fantasy points. While he is the RB8 for the year after his massive performance last week, Montgomery hasn’t played like a top-10 running back. He had 22 rushing attempts for 82 yards, one touchdown and 21.4 fantasy points over the first two weeks, averaging 0.65 fantasy points per attempt. Unfortunately, Montgomery has an awful matchup in Week 4.
While the Browns’ offense has severely struggled, their defense has been spectacular. They have surrendered 22.7 points per game, allowing 17 or fewer points twice over the first three weeks despite facing the Cincinnati Bengals, Baltimore Ravens and Green Bay Packers. More importantly, Cleveland has shut down opposing rushing attacks, giving up only 42.7 yards per game and 2.3 yards per attempt to running backs. The Browns have allowed running backs to average only 12.8 fantasy points per game, the second-fewest in the NFL, surrendering 15.7 points or fewer in every outing.
J.K. Dobbins (RB – DEN)
To the dismay of fantasy managers betting on an RJ Harvey breakout, J.K. Dobbins is the Broncos’ No. 1 RB right now. In fact, his role is only growing, as Sean Payton finally gave up on the Tyler Badie experiment in Week 3. As a result, Dobbins played 71% of the Broncos’ offensive snaps, handled 11 of their 13 running back carries and saw two targets on a 47% route participation rate.
The Bengals are the perfect matchup for Dobbins to take advantage of that solid role. They have given up the second-most points per game to opposing backs, and that number should only trend up now that they are without Joe Burrow for the foreseeable future. The Broncos are seven-point home favorites in this Monday night contest. You can confidently fire up Dobbins as a solid RB2.
Must-Know Wide Receiver Fantasy Football Stats
Tetairoa McMillan (WR – CAR)
Tetairoa McMillan totaled 10 targets when including penalties (34% target share) last week. The box score hardly captures his ceiling. Buy low. Bryce Young keeps targeting McMillan both downfield and in the red zone — 90 air yards in Week 3. He’s 17th in air yard share through three games. A massive game is coming for McMillan with salivating matchups approaching. And he is running so far ahead of all the other Panthers receivers.
Deebo Samuel (WR – SF)
Deebo Samuel is the WR15 in fantasy points per game. Before last week’s quieter stat line, Samuel was the WR6 and WR17 in weekly fantasy scoring. In addition to his receiving workload, he has four rushing attempts, 37 rushing yards and a rushing score this season. Samuel also has one red-zone target this season.
Samuel has a 22.6% target share, 1.61 yards per route run (44 receiving yards per game) and a 23.7% first-read share. This week, he faces an Atlanta pass defense that has the second-highest single-high rate (67.3%) in the NFL. Against single-high, Samuel has seen his target share dip to 17.6% with only 0.91 yards per route run and a 17.1% first-read share.
This looks like a tough week for Samuel unless Terry McLaurin is out and he’s just pounded with targets. Atlanta has allowed the fifth-fewest PPR points per target to slot receivers (Samuel has run 83% of his routes from the slot).
Tyquan Thornton (WR – KC)
This is the second straight week Kansas City Chiefs wide receiver Tyquan Thornton has recorded exactly 169 air yards and a touchdown. His average depth of target (aDOT) during those two weeks has been at least 19 yards both times. And this is all on top of Week 1, when he was ninth in the league in air yards. Altogether, Thornton has been a top-10 receiver in air yards every week this season. It shows both the trust that Patrick Mahomes has in him and the Chiefs’ commitment to get back to the deep pass this year.
That’s why it’s time to sell.
The market for Thornton will literally never be better. He has proven to be a strong fantasy scorer, but his circumstances are about to change drastically. The Chiefs will likely get Xavier Worthy back this week, and are less than four weeks away from welcoming Rashee Rice back to the field. Unless the Chiefs are going to deploy 3-WR sets where two of them are the deep option, Thornton’s time on the field will decrease.
Thornton’s 26% target share and 54% air yards share are both very strong numbers, and hopefully can help boost his trade value.
Must-Know Tight End Fantasy Football Stats
Harold Fannin Jr. (TE – CLE)
With every passing week, Harold Fannin Jr. looks more like 2024 Isiah Likely. The standout Week 1 performance gets further and further in the rearview. Over the last two weeks, Fannin has averaged only 4.5 targets, four receptions and 36.5 receiving yards.
Fannin has settled into a 55.5% route share, which isn’t great, while seeing a 14% target share (24% target per route run rate) with 45.3 receiving yards per game (1.79 yards per route run) and a 17.9% first-read share. He hasn’t had a red-zone target since the one he saw in Week 1. Maybe he has a bounce-back game this week, but it’s tough to bet on. Detroit has allowed the 12th-most receiving yards and the fourth-most fantasy points per game to tight ends.
Brenton Strange (TE – JAX)
Brenton Strange tops the Jaguars’ tight end depth chart. This past Sunday, the 2023 second-round pick was the top pass-catcher among all of Trevor Lawrence‘s options in the passing game. While other receivers were struggling with drops and miscues, Strange paced all Jaguars by securing sex of his seven targets for 61 yards.
Lawrence and Strange have been on the same page so far this season, connecting on 81.3% of targets. Though he has yet to find the end zone, Strange gets a meeting with a 49ers defense that has allowed a touchdown to a tight end each of the past two weeks.
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