Let’s take a look at some of the players with the largest standard deviation between high and low expert ranks in FantasyPros’ expert consensus rankings (ECR). Which players are the safest starts, and who poses the biggest risk to your fantasy football lineup in Week 3?
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Fantasy Football Start/Sit Advice
Week 3 Risky Fantasy Football Starts
Omarion Hampton (RB – LAC) vs. Denver Broncos
- Highest Rank: 22
- Lowest Rank: 30
To be fair, the Chargers’ early-season schedule has featured tough run defenses. Omarion Hampton’s Week 1 matchup with Kansas City resulted in just 48 yards on 15 carries and two receptions for 13 yards. Week 2’s matchup with Vegas was tough, but we did expect some progression in his performance. Instead, we were hit with just eight carries for 24 yards and a one-yard reception.
Combine that underwhelming performance with a decrease in snaps and an increase in touches for Najee Harris, who was used exclusively on the Chargers’ final drive after Hampton caused a fumble (erroneously charged to Justin Herbert), and we have significant cause for concern. This week’s matchup against Denver presents another conflict for fantasy managers. Denver is a tough defensive matchup, but the Broncos gave up over 200 total yards to Jonathan Taylor. Hampton is no Taylor. If Hampton continues to split carries, he offers a limited ceiling and a shaky floor.
My Projected Finish: RB25
A.J. Brown (WR – PHI) vs. Los Angeles Rams
- Highest Rank: 11
- Lowest Rank: 22
Yes, we are officially at the point where we are starting to question whether or not we can actually trust A.J. Brown in our starting lineups. The adage, “start your studs,” is real, but when your stud’s best performance is seven PPR points, you’ve got a serious issue.
The Eagles are leaning so aggressively on the run that all pass-catchers are suffering. In what should’ve been a matchup where the Eagles attacked a mediocre Kansas City secondary, they remained run-heavy, with Jalen Hurts completing just 15 passes for 101 yards. The 2024 addition of Saquon Barkley led to a dramatic shift in Hurts’ pass attempts, from a career-high 538 in 2023 to just 361 in 2024, averaging 24 attempts per game.
We’re also seeing a continued target share issue with Brown and DeVonta Smith, who are fairly even in targets — an issue that emerged last season. It’s tough to sit Brown because he’s A.J. Brown. However, with another tough matchup ahead, Brown’s limited production is a huge risk to your fantasy lineup. Fantasy managers in deep leagues likely don’t have an option. However, fantasy managers in shallow leagues may have stronger plays this week.
My Projected Finish: WR17
Mark Andrews (WR – BAL) vs. Detroit Lions
- Highest Rank: 7
- Lowest Rank: 23
Abort mission. We’re in familiar territory with Mark Andrews, but it’s uncomfortable nonetheless. Answers has a total of two receptions on three targets for seven yards. There is a way to spin this. Two of those targets were red-zone targets, and one was a touchdown catch that was punched out by the defender.
Andrews got off to a rough start in 2024 before becoming a touchdown magnet, catching a touchdown in all but two games from Week 6 on. For that reason, we can’t pivot away from Andrews to the point of dropping him to the waiver wire. However, it’s extremely clear that the offense has shifted to pushing high volume to Zay Flowers, and Andrews’ targets will remain limited and focused on red-zone production.
Andrews is touchdown-dependent and an extremely risky start when there are multiple streaming options available that can garner higher volume. Until he proves otherwise, Andrews is no longer a top-12 option.
My Projected Finish: TE15
More Risky Starts
Week 3 Safe Fantasy Football Starts
Ricky Pearsall (WR – SF) vs. Arizona Cardinals
- Highest Rank: 33
- Lowest Rank: 37
Week 2 was a letdown for Ricky Pearsall after a 100-yard game in Week 1. Pearsall caught four of his six targets for 56 yards. The start was frustrating because Jauan Jennings had 10 targets and a touchdown. However, Week 2 set a nice floor for fantasy managers.
Even in games where Pearsall isn’t the first look and with Mac Jones at quarterback, we can still expect Pearsall to reach a safe nine to 12 fantasy point floor. Week 3’s game offers a plus matchup against a Cardinals’ defense without top rookie cornerback Will Johnson.
Arizona allowed over 300 yards to Bryce Young and 100 yards to Tetairoa McMillan last week. Pearsall’s ceiling is still in question, but he’s a fantasy asset that can serve as a Flex option this week. Brock Purdy has the potential to return this week as well.
My Projected Finish: WR34
J.K. Dobbins (RB – DEN) vs. Los Angeles Chargers
- Highest Rank: 22
- Lowest Rank: 28
The Broncos’ backfield is frustrating, but the most trustworthy back is clearly J.K. Dobbins. While Dobbins isn’t dominating snaps and Sean Payton is still rotating multiple backs, Dobbins’ workload is strong and consistent with an average of 15 carries and a touchdown in each of the first two games.
Dobbins’ ceiling is limited because the receiving work is minimal (three targets) and tilted towards RJ Harvey and Tyler Badie. However, Dobbins’ consistency on the ground makes him a strong RB2. He’s performed well thus far in average yards per carry, passes the eye test and should remain the primary back as long as he’s healthy.
My Projected Finish: RB23
Keenan Allen (WR – LAC) vs. Denver Broncos
- Highest Rank: 22
- Lowest Rank: 40
Ladd McConkey managers, close your eyes. Keenan Allen just might be the most reliable receiver in the Chargers’ offense. Between Allen, McConkey and Quentin Johnston, Allen has the lowest snap count. However, he’s dominating in targets per route run. Translation? When Allen is on the field, Justin Herbert is looking his way, and the Chargers are designing plays with clear intent for Allen.
More importantly, Herbert is looking Allen’s way in the red zone. Allen has the fifth-highest red-zone fantasy production in PPR, and he has 12 receptions on 17 targets for over 100 yards and two touchdowns this season. He’s delivering on volume and is one of the most trustworthy Flex options.
Note: Allen’s ranking deviation jumped extremely high shortly before publishing this article. The jump in range was a ranking elevation rather than a drop, due to rankers raising him to a low-end WR2. The leap shows increasing trust, leaning towards making him a must-start rather than any concern.
My Projected Finish: WR29
More Safe Starts
- George Pickens
- Jameson Williams
- Michael Pittman Jr.
- Jauan Jennings
- Jaylen Warren
- Jordan Love
- Kyle Pitts (crazy, right?)
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