The current week of NFL DFS is always my favorite week. The slate is clean, and we are not forced to deal with our draft day mistakes like we do in managed seasonal leagues. It is all about honing in on value plays and which ones to slot in our DFS lineups.
This article aims to decipher values in the lobbies. It is not meant to be a roster builder. Instead, it will help identify key players priced below their production potential based on various factors for DraftKings and FanDuel.
We have an 11-game slate lined up for this week, so let’s get into it.
The current week of NFL DFS is always my favorite week. The slate is clean, and we are not forced to deal with our draft day mistakes like we do in managed seasonal leagues. It is all about honing in on value plays and which ones to slot in our DFS lineups.
This article aims to decipher values in the lobbies. It is not meant to be a roster builder. Instead, it will help identify key players priced below their production potential based on various factors for DraftKings and FanDuel.
We have an 11-game slate lined up for this week, so let’s get into it.
NFL DFS Value Plays: Week 4
Quarterbacks
Yes, Caleb Williams has been featured in this weekly article before. Also, yes, he still remains undervalued in betting and DFS. Only Lamar Jackson has more passing touchdowns than Williams. Williams is also seventh in rushing yards among the position. In fantasy points per game, he is third. Making him viable versus cost every week until further notice.
The Raiders allow the 12th-most fantasy production to the quarterback position. Including an average of 245.3 passing yards, 1.3 passing touchdowns and 29 rushing yards. Williams has scrambled more this season, making that a viable floor mover for production.
Salary suggests Williams can be used in both cash and GPP contests. There are viable stacks with either DJ Moore or Rome Odunze that make him an attractive target this week.
While the price point is not the cheapest, the potential production outweighs the cost. Through three weeks of play, Daniel Jones has the fourth-most fantasy points per game. He is second only to Jalen Hurts in rushing touchdowns from the position. While we would like to see more passing touchdowns come out of this offense, Jones has played fairly clean.
This week, he draws a matchup against the Rams, who are currently profiling as the 18th-most friendly opponent to the position. The Rams can score, and the Colts’ defense is not that scary. This could be a back-and-forth kind of matchup that pays off in the DFS streets.
Jones is stackable in a plus matchup, and his salary still allows for boom potential. He operates better in GPP contests than cash games this week.
Running Backs
It has not been a stellar start for Omarion Hampton’s career, but we did see some uptick last week. I’ll never celebrate an injury, but I will notice its impact on other players. Najee Harris went down to a season-ending injury, sadly. As a result, Hampton showed that he could sustain a full work-horse role. He turned that role into an RB5 finish for the week.
This week, he gets not only the No. 1 RB role but also a New York Giants team allowing the fifth-most fantasy points to the position. They are allowing an average of 112.3 rushing yards, 1.3 rushing touchdowns and 27 receiving yards per game to opposing running backs.
Hampton looks locked in for a big role and is in a good game for production. At his price point, he can be used in both cash and GPP contests this week.
Alright, straight talk. Unfortunately, Nick Chubb looks like a shell of his former self. I’m on record as proclaiming him to be the best pure runner of the football in the league back when he was healthy. It saddens me to have to rank him positionally where I do each week. Part of which is his decline since returning from such a severe injury, and part of which is that wretched offensive line he’s behind.
However, if there is a week he makes it look like he’s turning back time, this week qualifies. The Titans’ front is allowing the third-most production to the position, including 1.7 rushing touchdowns per game. They allowed three rushing scores from Jonathan Taylor last week and two more scores in the previous weeks.
Chubb will be involved and has a price point that makes him low-key handsome for DFS lineups.
Wide Receivers
We’re digging a little deep here, so this will be a GPP type of play. After missing Week 1, Darnell Mooney has been slowly ramped up. Last week, he drew a team-high in targets (11) and finished second on the squad in receiving yards. Yes, Michael Penix Jr. has been dodgy delivering the football to his pass-catchers. But the usage cannot be ignored. Mooney also represents a big-play threat on top of the target share.
The Commanders are allowing the seventh-most fantasy production to the position. Mooney is in a good spot to capitalize on his role, and at a significant discount. He is set to outproduce his salary in this contest and should be used in GPP contests for this slate.
It has not all been roses for Cedric Tillman this season. As it stands, he is the WR40 in fantasy points per game and has topped out at 52 receiving yards back in Week 1. However, he has scored in two games and is drawing a notable target share.
The matchup against the Lions provides some appeal. They’re allowing the sixth-most fantasy production to perimeter receivers. Jerry Jeudy is going to draw the primary coverage, leaving Tillman to softer coverage and potentially a better outing than his salary suggests.
Tillman is best used in a Flex role for GPP contests this week.
Tight Ends
Hunter Henry has been quietly good (again) this season. He is the TE3 in fantasy points per game and is tied for the lead in touchdowns among the position. Thus far, his production has not led to a major increase in price. This will keep him as a value until DraftKings adjusts.
Oh, and he has a solid matchup against the Panthers this week, who are currently allowing the ninth-most fantasy points to the position. Henry should be rostered in both cash and GPP contests this week while his salary remains discounted.
Harold Fannin Jr., as a rookie, is averaging 9.6 PPR points per game. What makes him exciting is the usage. The Browns have lined him up all over the formation. He has even logged a carry.
Fannin is outscoring his veteran counterpart, David Njoku, by nearly two points per game. This week, the Browns draw a Detroit defense allowing the fourth-most fantasy points to the position. Look for Fannin’s first NFL score this week.
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John Hesterman is a featured writer and Expert Consensus Ranker at FantasyPros. He also writes for DynastyLeagueFootball.com. For more from John, check out his archive and follow him on Bluesky @John-Hesterman or Twitter/X @John_Hesterman.
