WOW! Offseason? What offseason?
Phew! That flew by quickly. Week 1 is here & OH BABY, fantasy football is back.
The 2025 season kicks off with a ton of intrigue. Can Caleb Williams & Ben Johnson bring winning football back to Chicago? Will the Denver Broncos take another step toward becoming a legit Super Bowl contender? Does Matthew Stafford and his back have enough left to take the NFC West again?
We are about to find out the answers to these questions & more in the next 18 weeks, & I can’t wait. While plenty of details have changed in the offseason, the goal remains the same. To win Fantasy Football championships!
Ok. Ok. I won’t keep you any longer. Let’s break down the first fantasy football slate of the year.
Welcome to the Week 1 Primer. Enjoy.
DAL vs. PHI | KC vs. LAC | TB vs. ATL | LV vs. NE | CIN vs. CLE | CAR vs. JAC | MIA vs. IND | PIT vs. NYJ | ARI vs. NO | NYG vs. WAS | SF vs. SEA | TEN vs. DEN | DET vs. GB | HOU vs. LAR | BAL vs. BUF | MIN vs. CHI
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Fantasy Football Primer
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Atlanta Falcons
Buccaneers Players & Weekly Rankings
Falcons Players & Weekly Rankings
Must-Start
These are no-brainer MUST starts.
Strong Starts
Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.
Baker Mayfield (QB)
Baker Mayfield is coming off a career year as the QB4 in fantasy points per game. He led an offense that ranked eighth in pass rate over expectation. Mayfield ranked fifth in passing attempts, third in passing yards, and second in passing touchdowns. Mayfield’s passing touchdowns could regress some in 2025, as he had 41 last year, when he had never eclipsed 30 before. Now, that doesn’t mean his passing touchdowns will drop back into the 20s, but I do expect him to finish somewhere in the mid-30s. Another area where Mayfield could see some regression is in the rushing department. Last year, he finished with 378 rushing yards (10th-best) and three rushing scores (12th-best). Both of those figures were also career highs. I’m not trying to take anything away from Mayfield because he was studly on a per-dropback basis. Among 40 qualifying quarterbacks, he was seventh in yards per attempt and CPOE and second in highly accurate throw rate (per Fantasy Points Data). Mayfield should have a strong game out of the gate. Last year, Atlanta allowed the second-most passing touchdowns, the fourth-highest passer rating, and the fifth-highest CPOE to quarterbacks. With Jeff Ulbrich as the new defensive coordinator, they should remain two-high heavy. In two of Ulbrich’s last three seasons calling defensive plays, he has ranked in the top ten in two high usage (fifth and tenth, 51.7-54.3% of snaps). This also matches well with Atlanta, which was 12th in two high usage last year (50.3%). Last year, Mayfield smoked two high, leading the NFL in passing touchdowns against the coverage shell while also ranking second-best in passer rating and fantasy points per dropback.
Michael Penix Jr. (QB)
Michael Penix showed some promise in his brief cup of coffee as the starter last year. In Weeks 16-18 last season, he averaged 15.2 fantasy points per game, which would have translated to QB23 for the season. He was extremely aggressive, ranking sixth in deep throw rate, fourth in hero throw rate, and second in aDOT. Among 47 qualifying quarterbacks last season, he ranked 16th in yards per attempt, 23rd in CPOE, 43rd in highly accurate throw rate, and 21st in catchable target rate. Penix isn’t a rushing threat, with no more than five rushing yards in any of his starts last year, so he’ll have to rack up all of his fantasy scoring from the pocket. If this game shoots out (likely), Penix could be pressed into a heavier passing game script than Atlanta might want and post a juicy stat line. Last year, Tampa Bay had the sixth-highest single high rate (59.5%). Against single-high, Penix ranked eighth in yards per attempt and fifth in CPOE. In Weeks 10-18 last year, Tampa Bay allowed the 14th-most passing yards per game and the 12th-highest CPOE.
Emeka Egbuka (WR)
At the beginning of the offseason, Emeka Egbuka looked like this year’s Jaxon Smith-Njigba or Rome Odunze. The talented first-round selection in the NFL draft found himself in a squeeze for target volume immediately with Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, but as we have progressed through the offseason and camp, the pathway has become clearer for Egbuka to step up in a big way in year one. Godwin’s health issues are much more complicated than originally anticipated, and he might not be at 100% til the mid-point of the 2025 season. Jalen McMillan sustained a neck injury in the preseason that has also called his availability for a large chunk of this season into question (he could be out until their bye in Week 9). Egbuka looks like he could be the clear WR2 for the Bucs for most of the season, if not all of it. Egbuka’s talent has never been in question. In two of Egbuka’s final three collegiate seasons, he ranked inside the top 40 FBS wide receivers in yards per route run (38th, 11th) and top 20 in receiving grade (19th, 12th) and yards after the catch (16th, 12th). Atlanta’s two-high approach should yield a ton of targets for Egbuka in Week 1 against the Falcons’ rookie nickel corner Billy Bowman Jr., who, in his final collegiate season, allowed a 68.7% catch rate and 125 passer rating (29th-highest among 255 qualifying safeties) in slot coverage.
Cade Otton (TE)
Cade Otton had career marks nearly across the board in 2024, but it was a perfect storm for Tampa Bay’s dependable tight end. He logged three massive games without Chris Godwin and Mike Evans in the lineup that greatly boosted his season-ending stat lines. In Weeks 8-10, without Evans and Godwin, Otton had a 25.5% target share with 2.03 yards per route run, a 29.9% first-read share, 64.3 receiving yards per game, and 0.116 first downs per route run. He averaged an astounding 19.8 PPR points per game. Outside of those three games, Otton had a 15.8% target share with 1.39 yards per route run, a 14.5% first-read share, 37 receiving yards per game, and 0.068 first downs per route run. Otton should be the third option in the target pecking order this week, with Godwin and Jalen McMillan out with a nice matchup incoming. Last year, Atlanta allowed the seventh-highest yards per reception and the 11th-most fantasy points per game to tight ends. Otton is a strong streaming option after practicing in full on Thursday and Friday (groin) and carrying no injury designation into this game.
Kyle Pitts (TE)
I’m frightened to death about Kyle Pitts‘ season-long outlook in 2025, but he is worth considering as a streamer/YOLO upside play in Week 1 (if ya need the upside). Last year, Pitts was the TE20 in fantasy points per game. Among 47 qualifying tight ends, Pitts ranked 24th in target share, 19th in receiving yards per game, 26th in yards per route run, and 39th in first downs per route run. That is all bone-chilling, but his boxscore numbers against Tampa Bay were mouthwatering. He posted arguably his best two games against this defense last year, averaging 5.5 receptions and 89.5 receiving yards with TE2 and TE6 weekly scoring finishes. Last year, Tampa Bay had the sixth-highest single high rate (59.5%). Last year, against single-high, Pitts had a 17% target per route run rate and 2.03 yards per route run, but he also logged a 9.3% first-read share and only 0.064 first downs per route run. He’s a boom or bust play for Week 1. It could also help him, though, that Tampa Bay gave up the fourth-most receiving yards per game and yards per reception to tight ends.
Fantasy Football Week 1 Flex Plays & Fades
Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.
Rachaad White (RB)
Last year, Rachaad White lost his bell-cow role with Bucky Iriving asserting himself and taking over the backfield. It wasn’t all doom and gloom for White, though. In Weeks 10-17, he still averaged 13.5 touches and 68.4 total yards as the RB18 in fantasy points per game. While I don’t think that he will continue to rock along as an RB2 in 2025, he could easily retain RB3/flex value in one of the best offenses in the NFL. Last year, White did see his efficiency tick up with the decrease in workload, as he ranked 29th in missed tackles forced per attempt, 15th in yards after contact per attempt, and 18th in yards per route run (per Fantasy Points Data). White could easily be Tampa Bay’s version of Jaylen Warren. In most leagues, you won’t be pressed to flex him in Week 1, but he’s viable in deeper leagues. Last year, in Weeks 10-18, Atlanta allowed the 15th-highest missed tackle rate, the 14th-highest yards after contact per attempt, and ranked 18th in explosive run rate.
Darnell Mooney (WR)
Darnell Mooney has been ruled out for Week 1 (shoulder)
DAL vs. PHI | KC vs. LAC | TB vs. ATL | LV vs. NE | CIN vs. CLE | CAR vs. JAC | MIA vs. IND | PIT vs. NYJ | ARI vs. NO | NYG vs. WAS | SF vs. SEA | TEN vs. DEN | DET vs. GB | HOU vs. LAR | BAL vs. BUF | MIN vs. CHI
Las Vegas Raiders vs. New England Patriots
Raiders Players & Weekly Rankings
Patriots Players & Weekly Rankings
Must-Start
These are no-brainer MUST starts.
Strong Starts
Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.
Drake Maye (QB)
Drake Maye did the best he could last year with a pitiful supporting cast. His offensive line was patchwork at best, and arguably, his top two pass catchers were Hunter Henry and DeMario Douglas. Despite all of this, in the nine games Maye played at least 90% of the snaps, he averaged 18.7 fantasy points per game, which would have placed him as the QB11 last year. In those contests, he averaged. 36.8 rushing yards per game, which would have ranked fifth among quarterbacks last season. Overall, among 40 qualifying quarterbacks, Maye ranked 27th in yards per attempt, 17th in CPOE, 11th in highly accurate throw rate, 18th in hero throw rate, and had the 13th-highest turnover-worthy throw rate. Maye could surprise in Week 1 with a soft opening matchup against the Raiders. The Raiders have overhauled their secondary, but that doesn’t mean it’ll be good in 2025. Eric Stokes and Kyu Kelly as their perimeter corners are suspect at best. The Raiders also had the 12th-lowest pressure rate last year. While the return of Maxx Crosby will help in that department, the rest of their defensive line is mediocre. Maye should have time in the pocket if his rebuilt offensive line can prove competent. Last year, the Raiders allowed the 14th-most passing yards per game, the fifth-most passing touchdowns, and the eighth-highest CPOE. All of these figures could be even worse in 2025.
Geno Smith (QB)
Geno Smith was the QB15 in fantasy points per game on the strength of operating in an offense that ranked fourth in passing attempts. I don’t know if he’ll be afforded anywhere near that amount of volume with the Raiders, but Smith also checked more than a few boxes for strong quarterback play last season. Among 40 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranked 13th in yards per attempt, fourth in CPOE, and tenth in highly accurate throw rate. The wheels came off for Smith when he was pressured, and that happened often in 2024 as he faced the sixth-most pressures in the NFL. Last year, when pressured, Smith ranked 35th in passer rating with the fourth-highest turnover-worthy throw rate while sitting at 17th in adjusted completion rate. When Smith passed from a clean pocket, he ranked 13th in passer rating, had the 23rd-lowest turnover-worthy throw rate, and was second in adjusted completion rate. The move from Seattle to Las Vegas could benefit Smith’s pressure sensitivity greatly, as the Raiders were 14th in pass blocking grade last season (Seattle 19th). The Patriots will have an improved pass rush this season. The question is how much. Last year, New England had the fourth-lowest pressure rate. The additions of Harold Landry, Robert Spillane, and K’Lavon Chaisson will help the team improve upon last year’s mark. Smith should still have time in the pocket to operate this week, though. Last season, New England also ranked 15th in yards per attempt while giving up the third-highest CPOE and seventh-highest passer rating. The addition of Carlton Davis will have something to say about that in 2025, but until we see them perform this should be considered only a middle-of-the-road matchup until we have seen the on field product perform.
TreVeyon Henderson (RB)
The workload division for the New England backfield is up in the air. We’ll have to see how that plays out early this season before we can get a full understanding of TreVeyon Henderson‘s weekly expected touch count. Even if he is more limited out of the gate, Henderson has the per-touch explosiveness to make the most of his opportunities. In two of his last four seasons in college, Henderson ranked top ten in yards after contact per attempt (seventh, eighth) and top 20 in breakaway percentage (10th, 18th). He will operate behind an improved offensive line that added Garrett Bradbury, Will Campbell, and Morgan Moses in the offseason. Henderson should be the favorite for passing down work, which is great news for his floor and ceiling. Across his last two collegiate seasons, Henderson has ranked 21st & 22nd in receiving grade. Josh McDaniels will feature him through the air. In McDaniels’ last five full seasons of directing NFL offenses, he has ranked inside the top ten in four of those years, with 20-36.2% of the passing attack flowing through the backfield. The Raiders have a worrisome defensive line assortment when it comes to stopping the run. Last year, Adam Butler (48.3) and Thomas Booker IV (53.6) had run defense grades below 55, and Malcolm Koonce has performed at a similar level in two of his three NFL seasons. Last year, the Raiders had the 14th-highest missed tackle rate and allowed the eighth-highest yards after contact per attempt. Arguably, their run defense personnel has worsened, too. Henderson could rip off a few big runs in Week 1 and finish with a banner day.
Rhamondre Stevenson (RB)
It was another up-and-down (more down) season for Stevenson. He dealt with a foot injury and benchings related to fumble issues. Overall, he finished as the RB27 in fantasy points per game with snooze-worthy per-touch numbers. Among 46 qualifying backs, he ranked 38th in explosive run rate, 30th in missed tackles forced per attempt, and 32nd in yards after contact per attempt (per Fantasy Points Data). All of these dings led to the team adding to the backfield with their selection of TreVeyon Henderson. Stevenson could still retain a goal-line and should still be active on early downs, but he’s likely a touchdown-dependent flex this week. He has a good matchup against the Raiders, though. The Raiders have a worrisome defensive line assortment when it comes to stopping the run. Last year, Adam Butler (48.3) and Thomas Booker IV (53.6) had run defense grades below 55, and Malcolm Koonce has performed at a similar level in two of his three NFL seasons. Last year, the Raiders had the 14th-highest missed tackle rate and allowed the eighth-highest yards after contact per attempt.
Stefon Diggs (WR)
Before he tore his ACL last year, Stefon Diggs was the WR15 in fantasy points per game, running nearly 53% of his routes from the slot, commanding a 22.1% target share and 28.5% first-read share while producing 1.97 yards per route run and 62 receiving yards per game. Diggs could be eased into action in Week 1, but I do expect him to have a high route per dropback rate. I just won’t be surprised if they pull him off the field during some rushing plays. Diggs showed last year that he still has the juice to play outside, which is how I expect the Pats to utilize him. Last year, among 112 qualifying receivers, Diggs ranked 15th in separation and 21st in route win rate when lined up on the perimeter. I don’t think the perimeter tandem of Eric Stokes (career 59.8% catch rate and 98.2 passer rating allowed) and Kyu Kelly (seven career targets defended with a 71.4% catch rate and 118.5 passer rating allowed) can slow him down in Week 1.
DeMario Douglas (WR)
Last year, in the ten full games with Drake Maye starting, DeMario Douglas had a 16.3% target share, 1.67 yards per route run, a 19.7% first-read share, and 0.079 first downs per route run. Nothing jumps off the page there, but he did manage three top 36 wide receiver finishes in those ten contests despite only managing five red zone targets. He does have a wonderful matchup for Week 1, though, so Douglas could be a nice deep PPR league flex. Darnay Holmes isn’t a nickel corner to worry about (2024: 77.1% catch rate and 90.7 passer rating allowed). Last year, Las Vegas allowed the second-most fantasy points per game and the tenth-most PPR points per target to slot receivers.
Hunter Henry (TE)
Last year, in Drake Maye‘s full starts, Hunter Henry had a 19.2% target share, averaged 49.9 receiving yards per game, had 1.70 yards per route run, a 22.7% first-read share, and 0.098 first downs per route run. I’ll also add on top that he averaged 11.3 PPR points per game in that sample. Last year, among all tight ends with 25 targets, those marks would have ranked seventh, sixth, 14th, fifth, eighth, and the points per game production would have made him the TE8 in fantasy. Last year, the Raiders allowed the fifth-most receiving yards per game and the seventh-highest yards per reception to tight ends.
Fantasy Football Week 1 Flex Plays & Fades
Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.
Jakobi Meyers (WR)
Jakobi Meyers will reprise his role as Brock Bowers‘ running mate, leading the Raiders’ passing attack. Last year, after the departure of Davante Adams, Meyers was the WR18 in fantasy points per game. During that stretch, among 98 qualifying wide receivers, he ranked 19th in target share (23.5%), 13th in receiving yards per game (75.4), 34th in first downs per route run (0.096), and 11th in first-read share (32.6%, per Fantasy Points Data). I’m not expecting Meyers to be a consistent WR2 this season again. Temper your expectations for the savvy veteran in Week 1 as he’ll have to consistently tangle with Carlton Davis (2024: 59.7% catch rate and 87.9 passer rating allowed) and Alex Austin (career: 51.2% catch rate and 77.6 passer rating allowed) all day.
DAL vs. PHI | KC vs. LAC | TB vs. ATL | LV vs. NE | CIN vs. CLE | CAR vs. JAC | MIA vs. IND | PIT vs. NYJ | ARI vs. NO | NYG vs. WAS | SF vs. SEA | TEN vs. DEN | DET vs. GB | HOU vs. LAR | BAL vs. BUF | MIN vs. CHI
