The Primer: Week 1 Edition (2025 Fantasy Football)

Arizona Cardinals vs. New Orleans Saints

• ARI -6.5, O/U 43
• Arizona Cardinals vs. New Orleans Saints Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Cardinals Players & Weekly Rankings

Saints Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• Trey McBride

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

James Conner (RB)

Last year was the first season for Conner since 2021 that he’d played more than 13 games. He finished as the RB15 in fantasy points per game, racking up 283 touches and 1508 total yards (nine scores). Conner didn’t look like he was slowing down at all. Last year, he was second in missed tackles forced per attempt, 11th in yards after contact per attempt, and sixth in explosive run rate. He also retained his passing game excellence, sitting sixth in yards per route run and seventh in receiving yards per game. Conner should have a strong day in Week 1. In Weeks 10-18 last year, New Orleans allowed the 11th-highest explosive run rate, the third-most rushing yards per game, and the tenth-highest missed tackle rate. They didn’t make any substantial investments in the offseason, either, outside of Devon Godchaux. I don’t think that is moving the needle much in 2025.

Alvin Kamara (RB)

Last year, Kamara’s season was limited to 14 games due to a groin injury. Before he rode off into the sunset for the 2024 season, Kamara was the RB5 in fantasy points per game. It was a similar story to his last few seasons. He was a volume king with disappointing tackle-breaking metrics who remained an elite option in the passing game. Kamara was seventh in snap share and sixth in opportunity share. He ranked 32nd in missed tackles forced per attempt and 36th in yards after contact per attempt while also sitting in the top two among running backs in receiving yards per game, target per route run rate, and yards per route run. I’m tossing all of the Cardinals’ run defense metrics in the trash. Arizona will field a rebuilt defensive line that looks ready to stop the run at a strong clip this season. They added Josh Sweat, Calais Campbell, Dalvin Tomlinson, and Walter Nolan. Each of these players is solid to top-shelf against the run. Kamara is a volume play as an RB2 because I don’t think the efficiency will be there in Week 1.

Fantasy Football Week 1 Flex Plays & Fades

Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.

Kyler Murray (QB)

Last year, Kyler Murray finished as the QB12 in fantasy points per game with 18.1 points per game. He has settled into this realm over the last three seasons with 18.1-18.9 points per game. Rushing was still a big part of his production, as he ranked fourth in rushing yards and seventh in rushing touchdowns among quarterbacks. Murray is the epitome of “better in best ball than redraft.” If you had him on any of your teams last year, you perfectly understood the frustration with rostering Murray that his QB12 finish doesn’t explain. Last year, he had five top-five weekly finishes, with an average of 26.2 fantasy points per game. Sandwiched around those week-winning performances were nine weeks where he was the QB15 or lower in weekly scoring. Among 40 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranked 20th in yards per attempt and highly accurate throw rate, 18th in CPOE, and 16th in passer rating. This isn’t a good matchup for Murray to begin the season. Last year, New Orleans, in Weeks 10-18, allowed the 13th-lowest yards per attempt and the ninth-lowest passer rating and CPOE. They utilized two high at the eighth-highest rate last year overall (51.7%). This should continue as it lines up with new defensive coordinator Brandon Staley’s approach (final year with LAC, 11th-highest two-high usage). Last year, against two high, Murray ranked 17th in yards per attempt, 16th in passer rating, and 20th in fantasy points per dropback. This lines up as a “frustrating” week for Murray.

Spencer Rattler (QB)

Nope. You can’t make me start Spencer Rattler in Week 1 (even in Superflex leagues). Last year, Rattler never had higher than a QB16 finish in weekly scoring, and he was QB20 or lower in five of six starts. He had zero games with multiple passing touchdowns and never surpassed 250 passing yards in any game. Even if we disregard all of this, the matchup is horrendous for Rattler in Week 1. Last year, in Weeks 10-18, Arizona allowed the 12th-lowest yards per attempt, the fewest passing touchdowns, and the sixth-fewest passing yards per game. Sit Rattler.

Marvin Harrison Jr. (WR)

Marvin Harrison Jr. didn’t come close to living up to the hype in his rookie season. Harrison Jr. finished as the WR39 in fantasy points per game and the WR27 in expected fantasy points per game. After such a disappointing first year, we’re left wondering, entering year two, “Can Harrison live up to last year’s hype and breakout in 2025?” I’ll start by saying I’m doubtful. In Weeks 1-9, Arizona deployed Harrison Jr. primarily as a downfield receiver, with only 29.9% of his routes being horizontal breaking routes and 49.6% of them being vertical breaking routes. In that sample, he drew a 21.4% target share (32nd) with 49.4 receiving yards per game (43rd), a 28.2% first-read share (29th), 0.093 first downs per route run (36th), and 1.97 yards per route run (38th). This was a horrible game plan by Arizona’s coaching staff. Last year, Harrison Jr. ranked 84th and 51st in vertical route-breaking separation and route win rate as opposed to 16th and 19th in those categories when it came to horizontal-breaking routes. The good thing for Harrison Jr. is that, in Weeks 10-18, his horizontal route % climbed to 41.4%, while vertical breaking routes made up 38.5% of his usage. The problem is that in Weeks 10-18, his numbers didn’t improve; instead, they actually worsened with the usage change. He had a 20.6% target share (33rd), 55 receiving yards per game (37th), a 27.1% first-read share, 0.078 first downs per route run, and 1.56 yards per route run. We’ll see what Arizona has cooked up for him this year, beginning with Week 1. Last year, New Orleans utilized two high at the eighth-highest rate (51.7%). In 2024, against two high, Harrison Jr. had a disappointing 20% target per route run rate and 1.53 yards per route run. Last year, the Saints ranked 16th in PPR points per target allowed to perimeter wide receivers. This is a middle-of-the-road corner matchup for Harrison Jr., but it’s a horrible schematic matchup.

Chris Olave (WR)

Last year, Chris Olave was limited to only six games played with a 70% or higher snap share. He suffered the fourth and fifth documented concussions of his life last year, which effectively cut his season short. In that small sample of games we got from Olave last year, he was still quite good. In those games, he drew a 22.5% target share, averaged 63.7 receiving yards per game, had 2.22 yards per route run, a 29.4% first-read share, and 0.122 first downs per route run. Among 85 qualifying receivers with at least 50 targets, if Olave had made the cut-off, he would have ranked 31st, 29th, 28th, 24th, and 12th best in those categories. In those games, Olave averaged 12.5 PPR points per game, which would have equaled WR35 production last year. Not bad, considering in that sample, he scored only one touchdown. Among 128 qualifying receivers, he also ranked 17th in separation and 23rd in route win rate. With all that said, Olave will have to overcome what looks to be mediocre quarterback play in 2025 if he’s going to produce this season. Olave looks like a volume play only in Week 1. Last year, in Weeks 10-18, Arizona allowed the ninth-fewest receiving yards per game and the fourth-fewest fantasy points per game to perimeter wide receivers. They also added Will Johnson to their starting lineup, so they could be even better in 2025.

Rashid Shaheed (WR)

Rashid Shaheed was headed for a breakout season before tearing his meniscus. In Weeks 1-6, he was the WR31 in fantasy points per game with at least 73 receiving yards in four of six outings. He drew a 22.7% target share with 2.17 yards per route run, a 29.8% first-read share, and 0.075 first downs per route run. We’ll see if he can pick up where he left off with new head coach Kellen Moore and Spencer Rattler tossing him the ball in 2025. I’m a little more skeptical than some after he ranked only 60th in separation and 64th in route win rate last season (among 140 qualifying receivers). Shaheed’s matchup this week also doesn’t set up well for him to get off to a fast start. Last year, in Weeks 10-18, Arizona allowed the ninth-fewest receiving yards per game and the fourth-fewest fantasy points per game to perimeter wide receivers. They also added Will Johnson to their starting lineup, so they could be even better in 2025.

DAL vs. PHI | KC vs. LAC | TB vs. ATL | LV vs. NE | CIN vs. CLE | CAR vs. JAC | MIA vs. IND | PIT vs. NYJ | ARI vs. NO | NYG vs. WAS | SF vs. SEA | TEN vs. DEN | DET vs. GB | HOU vs. LAR | BAL vs. BUF | MIN vs. CHI

New York Giants vs. Washington Commanders

• WAS -6, O/U 45.5
• New York Giants vs. Washington Commanders Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Giants Players & Weekly Rankings

Commanders Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• Jayden Daniels
• Malik Nabers

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Austin Ekeler (RB)

Austin Ekeler was a nice surprise when on the field last year. He dealt with two concussions in 2024, which forced him to miss five games, but when active, he was the RB29 in fantasy points per game. He had some elevated usage in weeks where Brian Robinson Jr. was limited or out, so I think we can project some regression in 2025 if Jacory Croskey-Merritt and Chris Rodriguez can stay healthy. Also, the addition of Deebo Samuel could cut into Ekeler’s short-area passing game usage. Last year, Ekeler was 11th in target share and third in yards per route run among backs. He’s a viable PPR flex this week if you’re in a pinch. Last year, the Giants allowed the 11th-most receiving yards and the seventh-highest yards per reception to running backs.

Jacory Croskey-Merritt (RB)

Jacory Croskey-Merritt was a predraft love lister for me. Sadly, he dropped all the way to the seventh round of the NFL Draft before the Commanders picked up the phone. If Croskey-Merritt hadn’t had his 2024 season cut off by an eligibility issue, he would have gone much higher than this. His 2023 season was excellent. He ranked 19th in yards after contact per attempt and 12th in elusive rating (per PFF). He’s a no-nonsense runner who makes one cut and gets downhill. With Chris Rodgriguez inactive, Croskey-Merritt should handle most of (maybe all) of the early down work for Washington. He is also likely the preferred option once the team gets near the goal line. On paper, the Giants look like a plus matchup on the ground, but looks could be deceiving. Last year, in Weeks 10-18, New York allowed the ninth-highest explosive run rate, the 11th-highest missed tackle rate, and the second-most yards after contact per attempt. During part of that sample (after Week 13), Dexter Lawrence was out. The Giants also upgraded their run defense significantly this offseason with the additions of Abdul Carter, Jevon Holland, and Darius Alexander. I’m treating this as an average matchup until we see everything play out in Week 1.

Terry McLaurin (WR)

In Jayden Daniels‘ rookie season, Terry McLaurin posted the best fantasy finish of his career as the WR14 in fantasy points per game. He was fueled by a career-high 13 receiving touchdowns while ranking seventh in deep targets and 18th in red zone targets among wideouts. Among 85 qualifying receivers, he was 32nd in target share (21.7%), 26th in yards per route run (2.17), 12th in end zone targets (13), 30th in first-read share (26.8%), and 17th in first downs per route run. We saw McLaurin’s role grow as Daniels became more confident down the stretch and Washington leaned into their aerial attack. In Weeks 1-12, McLaurin had a 20.4% target share and a 25.4% first-read share. In Weeks 13-18, those numbers rose to 24.6% and 30%. Last year, the Giants utilized single high at the third-highest rate (64.6%). McLaurin was quite good last season against single high with 2.42 yards per route run, a 24.8% first-read share, and 0.101 first downs per route run. McLaurin should feast Week 1 as he’ll match up a ton with Deonte Banks (2024: 67.1% catch rate and 124.7 passer rating allowed). With Kliff Kingsbury, McLaurin lined up as the LWR with 73% of his snaps last year, which means he’ll see Banks for most of the day. Last year, Banks played RCB on 63% of his snaps. Week 1 should be quite generous for McLaurin.

Deebo Samuel (WR)

Deebo Samuel had a tough 2024 season, during which he dealt with numerous injuries. Last year alone, he dealt with a calf strain, pneumonia, a hamstring strain, and rib issues. Samuel has accumulated a lengthy medical record throughout the years. The injury risk remains entering 2025, with Samuel being a year older and his playing style as a bruising, tackle-breaking, underneath threat continuing. Right now, Samuel is fully healthy, but this is something to just store in the deeper recesses of your mind. Last year, Samuel was the WR46 in fantasy points per game while ranking 47th in target share (17.2%) and receiving yards per game (44.7), 53rd in yards per route run (1.69), and 63rd in first downs per route run. This is a decent on-paper matchup schematically and for Samuel’s projected role in the offense. Last year, Washington ranked sixth in screen passes. Samuel likely does the heavy lifting for Washington in the screen game. Last year, New York allowed the 12th-most yards after the catch per reception and the seventh-most yards per route run to wide receiver screens. Last year, the Giants also utilized single high at the third-highest rate (64.6%). Samuel was solid against single high with a 21% target per route run rate and 1.80 yards per route run. Samuel should pay off as a decent flex in PPR leagues.

Fantasy Football Week 1 Flex Plays & Fades

Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.

Russell Wilson (QB)

Last year, Russell Wilson was the QB17 in fantasy points per game. His rushing equity has all but dried up, so he has to produce all of his fantasy points with his legs. Last season, he ranked 28th in rushing yards per game among quarterbacks. Last season, among 40 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranked 15th in yards per attempt, 18th in highly accurate throw rate, and 13th-best in CPOE. The schematic matchup for Wilson is great with the Commanders utilizing the seventh-highest rate of single high last year after Week 5 (60%), but they were also a stout secondary that has made some improvements this offseason on the back end. Last year, in Weeks 10-18, Washington allowed the fifth-fewest yards per attempt, the fifth-lowest passer rating, and the second-lowest CPOE. This offseason, they added Will Harris, Trey Amos, and Jonathon Jones to the mix, which will also allow Mike Sainristil to move back into the slot. Sit Wilson this week.

Tyrone Tracy Jr. (RB)

Tyrone Tracy Jr. took over as the Giants’ starting back in Week 5 last season and never looked back as the RB22 in fantasy points per game. Well, he did have some bumps in the road with fumbles. Tracy Jr. finished with the 23rd-most touches among running backs last year, but he was tied for the third-most fumbles at the position. Tracy Jr. was explosive with his touches last year, ranking 16th in explosive run rate and 20th in missed tackles forced per attempt. Tracy Jr. will get the first crack at retaining his workhorse job after Cam Skattebo was sidelined in the preseason and during camp with a hamstring injury. Tracy Jr. will have to deal with a run defense that last year, in Weeks 10-18, allowed the third-lowest rushing success rate, the fourth-lowest explosive run rate, and the sixth-lowest yards after contact per attempt.

Chris Rodriguez (RB)

Chris Rodriguez is out. He is a healthy scratch this week. SZN of Bill is here.

Cam Skattebo (RB)

Cam Skattebo had an outside shot at stealing the starting job away from Tyrone Tracy Jr. this offseason if he came in and had a strong camp, but sadly, a hamstring injury put him on the shelf, and he’ll start the season behind the eight ball. Skattebo’s role and workload are up in the air to begin the season, so there’s no way he should be gracing any starting lineups in Week 1. In his final collegiate season, he ranked 21st in yards after contact per attempt and 11th in elusive rating while also sitting inside the top ten in receiving grade and yards per route run. Last year, in Weeks 10-18, Washington allowed the third-lowest rushing success rate, the fourth-lowest explosive run rate, and the sixth-lowest yards after contact per attempt.

Wan’Dale Robinson (WR)

Wan’Dale Robinson was a PPR cheat code last year, ranking tenth in targets (140) and receptions (93). He was the WR41 in fantasy points per game. Robinson has nine weekly finishes as a top-36 fantasy wideout. He had a 22.5% target share, 1.28 yards per route run, and a 26.2% first-read share. Robinson’s high-volume role isn’t certain to remain in 2025, with Russell Wilson starting at least a portion of the season. Wilson hasn’t been a heavy underneath/middle-of-the-field target-funneling quarterback. Last year, 35% of Robinson’s targets were within ten yards of the line of scrimmage in the middle of the field, where only 21.7% of Wilson’s passes were aimed last season. Robinson will also be lining up with Mike Sainristil for most of the game (2024: 62.1% catch rate and 87.5 passer rating allowed), which isn’t an easy matchup.

Zach Ertz (TE)

Zach Ertz had a very “Ertzian” season in 2024, where volume and a perfect set of circumstances helped carry him to a TE10 in fantasy points per game finish. Last year, among 47 qualifying tight ends, Ertz ranked 12th in target share (16.8%), 17th in receiving yards per game (38.5), 27th in yards per route run (1.45), 14th in first read share (17.2%), and 20th in first downs per route run. Ertz will have streaming-worthy matchups this season, but don’t look his way this week. Last year, the Giants allowed the fourth-fewest receiving yards to tight ends and the third-fewest schedule-adjusted fantasy points per game.

Theo Johnson (TE)

Last year, before Theo Johnson was lost for the remainder of the season with a foot injury, he was the TE33 in fantasy points per game. He drew a 9.9% target share, averaging 27.6 receiving yards per game with 1.0 yards per route run and only 0.048 first downs per route run. Johnson is just a run-of-the-mill TE2 this week. Last year, Washington allowed the 12th-fewest schedule-adjusted fantasy points per game to tight ends while also ranking 15th in yards per reception given up to the position.

DAL vs. PHI | KC vs. LAC | TB vs. ATL | LV vs. NE | CIN vs. CLE | CAR vs. JAC | MIA vs. IND | PIT vs. NYJ | ARI vs. NO | NYG vs. WAS | SF vs. SEA | TEN vs. DEN | DET vs. GB | HOU vs. LAR | BAL vs. BUF | MIN vs. CHI

San Francisco 49ers vs. Seattle Seahawks

• SF -2.5, O/U 43.5
• San Francisco 49ers vs. Seattle Seahawks Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

49ers Players & Weekly Rankings

Seahawks Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• Christian McCaffrey
• George Kittle

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Brock Purdy (QB)

Brock Purdy continues to hum along as a QB1 in fantasy after finishing as the QB10 and QB6 in fantasy points per game over the last two seasons. Last year, Purdy flashed some rushing upside, too, as he ranked 11th in rushing yards and seventh in rushing scores among quarterbacks. Last year, he ranked third in yards per attempt, ninth in CPOE, and tenth in fantasy points per dropback. Purdy has a tough matchup against what could be a top 5-10 defense in 2025. Last year, in Weeks 11-18, Seattle held quarterbacks to the fourth-lowest yards per attempt, the eighth-lowest passer rating, and the lowest CPOE while featuring the fourth-highest two-high rate (57.8%). The feather in Purdy’s cap is that against two high last year, he ranked fifth-best in yards per attempt, 12th in CPOE, and eighth in fantasy points per dropback.

Sam Darnold (QB)

Sam Darnold was the QB9 in fantasy points per game last year. Let’s get this out of the way VERY QUICKLY…Darnold set career marks in every category imaginable last year, and I don’t see anything close to that production repeating in 2025. Yes, last season, among 40 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranked sixth in yards per attempt and passer rating and third in CPOE, but also, when we look closer, the real Sam Darnold can still be found. Despite those rousing stats I mentioned a second ago, Darnold was also 22nd in highly accurate throw rate, 15th in catchable target rate, and he had the ninth-highest turnover-worthy throw rate. Darnold could post decent QB2 numbers this week against a 49ers’ secondary that, last year, in Weeks 10-18, allowed the sixth-most passing touchdowns, the 11th-highest CPOE, and the second-highest passer rating. This secondary will look drastically different with the losses of Talanoa Hufanga, Charvarius Ward, and Isaac Yiadom, but the team did add Jason Pinnock and Tre Brown to lessen the blow. I think we can all agree, though, that the new additions are downgrades.

Kenneth Walker III (RB)

After the Seattle Seahawks put Kenneth Walker in bubble wrap all preseason and training camp, he should be ready to rock & roll for Week 1. It will fly under the radar that Walker was the RB12 in fantasy points per game last season. Unfortunately, his season was cut short by injuries. Walker proved last year that not only is he still one of the best pure rushing talents in the league, but he is also a true three-down back with passing-catching chops. Among 45 qualifying backs, Walker ranked third in first downs per route run, sixth in target per route run rate, and sixth in receiving yards per game. In this Klint Kubiak run scheme, we could see the best football of Walker’s career. Walker could steamroll the 49ers this week. Last year, in Weeks 10-18, the 49ers allowed the fourth-most rushing yards per game, the second-highest missed tackle rate, and the sixth-most yards before contact per attempt. The 49ers didn’t add any illustrious run-stopping talent this offseason that would make me think these numbers will be that much improved out of the gate.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR)

Jaxon Smith-Njigba broke out in a big way in his sophomore season. He was the WR17 in fantasy points per game and really exploded down the stretch. In Weeks 9-18, he was the WR8 in fantasy points per game, ranking 11th in target share (25.4%), tenth in receiving yards per game (82.4), and ninth in yards per route run and first downs per route run. Last year, during that insane stretch, he ran out of the slot on 81.3% of his snaps. Last year, his separation (0.035 vs. 0.068) and route win rate (9.4% vs. 10.4%) were notably worse as a perimeter wide receiver, while also noting that his overall numbers in these metrics were surprisingly poor. Overall, among 112 qualifying receivers, he ranked 62nd in separation score and 88th in route win rate. If Klint Kubiak deploys a system similar to what he did in New Orleans last year, Smith-Njigba’s slot rate is sure to decline. Last year, New Orleans had the second-lowest rate of three wide receiver sets in the NFL (33%). If we want to look at the glass as half full, Smith-Njigba will see a lot of two high in Week 1. In 2022-2023, with Robert Saleh leading the defensive design for the Jets, they utilized two high at the fifth and tenth-highest rates (51.7-54.3%). Last year, against two high, Smith-Njigba had a 24% target per route run rate, 2.23 yards per route run, and 0.110 first downs per route run. The volatility with Smith-Njigba’s Week 1 projection means that he is a riskier option than consensus will believe. Last year, the 49ers allowed the ninth-fewest fantasy points per game to wide receivers.

Ricky Pearsall (WR)

Ricky Pearsall has had a wonderful offseason and is primed to spread his wings in his second season. Pearsall’s rookie season was derailed early by camp injuries and then off-the-field circumstances that were out of his control. All of these factors delayed Pearsall flashing his immense talent, but eventually, the cream rose to the top. In the final two weeks of the regular season, Pearsall finished as the WR7 and WR14 in weekly scoring while seeing a 21.7% target share and 30.4% first-read share and producing 2.84 yards per route run. Pearsall will face a Seattle secondary that last year allowed the ninth-most fantasy points per game to perimeter wide receivers (Pearsall 85.7% perimeter in the preseason). Pearsall will line up against Riq Woolen (2024: 55.2% catch rate and 83.7 passer rating allowed) and Josh Jobe (2024: 60% catch rate and 82.8 passer rating allowed) for most of the game.

Cooper Kupp (WR)

Cooper Kupp has dealt with injuries (ankle/thigh) over the last three seasons, which have limited him to no more than 12 games in a season since his legendary 2021 season. If he can somehow manage to stay healthy in 2025, he might prove that he has more left in the tank than the consensus believes. Last year, in the games in which he played at least 55% of the snaps, he drew a 24.7% target share, averaged 61.2 receiving yards per game with 2.15 yards per route run, a 31.6% first-read share, and 0.086 first downs per route run. In that sample, he averaged 15.2 PPR points per game, which would have equaled the WR18 last season. During those games, he had a 0.097 separation score and a 14.5% route win rate overall, which, among 112 qualifying receivers last season, would have ranked 31st and 42nd. Those are passable numbers, but what really opened my eyes were his 0.139 separation score and 17.6% route win rate as a boundary receiver. Those marks would have ranked 16th and 24th among the same sample of wideouts. That perimeter juice could serve him well in 2025 if Klint Kubiak deploys a system similar to what he did in New Orleans last year. Last year, New Orleans had the second-lowest rate of three wide receiver sets in the NFL (33%). Kupp and Jaxon Smith-Njiga’s slot and perimeter usage will remain a mystery until we see it in Week 1. A plus for Kupp in Week 1 is his remaining excellence against two high last year. In 2022-2023, with Robert Saleh leading the defensive design for the Jets, they utilized two high at the fifth and tenth-highest rates (51.7-54.3%). Last year, against two high, Kupp had a 30% target per route run rate and 2.59 yards per route run. Last year, the 49ers allowed the ninth-fewest fantasy points per game to wide receivers.

Jauan Jennings (WR)

After dealing with a calf issue and holding out of camp for a new contract, it looks like Jauan Jennings will suit up for Week 1. Last year, in his age-27 season, Jauan Jennings broke out in a BIG way. In Weeks 10-18, without Brandon Aiyuk, as a full-time player, he had a 25.1% target share, averaged 63.4 receiving yards per game, produced 2.23 yards per route run with a 32.7% first-read share, and 0.113 first downs per route run. To put those numbers into context, over a full season among all wide receivers with at least 50 targets, Jennings would have ranked tenth, 23rd, 22nd, 11th, and 14th in those categories while averaging 14.1 PPR fantasy points per game, which would have equaled the WR26. If we add in his monster week 3 performance, those stats jump with Jennings commanding a 26.5% target share, producing 74.6 receiving yards per game with 2.57 yards per route run, commanding a 33.6% first-read share, and churning out 0.124 first downs per route run. Adding in that one game would also boost his fantasy points per game to 17.4 points per game, which would have made him the WR10 for the season. Jennings will face a Seattle secondary that last year allowed the ninth-most fantasy points per game to perimeter wide receivers. Jennings will line up against Riq Woolen (2024: 55.2% catch rate and 83.7 passer rating allowed) and Josh Jobe (2024: 60% catch rate and 82.8 passer rating allowed) for most of the game.

Fantasy Football Week 1 Flex Plays & Fades

Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.

• N/A

DAL vs. PHI | KC vs. LAC | TB vs. ATL | LV vs. NE | CIN vs. CLE | CAR vs. JAC | MIA vs. IND | PIT vs. NYJ | ARI vs. NO | NYG vs. WAS | SF vs. SEA | TEN vs. DEN | DET vs. GB | HOU vs. LAR | BAL vs. BUF | MIN vs. CHI

Tennessee Titans vs. Denver Broncos

• DEN -8, O/U 42.5
• Tennessee Titans vs. Denver Broncos Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Titans Players & Weekly Rankings

Broncos Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

N/A

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Bo Nix (QB)

I was down on Bo Nix entering last season. Early on, it looked like I was right about my evaluation of him as a prospect. Nix STRUGGLED out of the gate before turning it on in Week 5. Once the candle was lit for Nix, he coffin nailed my evaluation of his upside in the NFL. In Weeks 5-18, Nix was the QB6 in fantasy points per game, ranking 15th in yards per attempt, tenth in CPOE, ninth in highly accurate throw rate, and eighth in fantasy points per dropback. I’ve never been happier being proved wrong. He was nothing short of amazing and placed third in the NFL Rookie of the Year voting. He also provided rushing upside, which I didn’t expect in the NFL. Last year, he ranked tenth in carries per game and eighth in rushing yards among quarterbacks. Tennessee is a tougher matchup in Week 1 for Nix if they revisit their early-season form of 2024 with L’Jarius Sneed back in the huddle. Last year, in Weeks 1-4, they allowed the fourth-lowest yards per attempt, the 11th-lowest passer rating, and the third-lowest CPOE. It’s a small sample, and Denver has plenty of firepower to overcome a tough matchup, so right now, consider this a middle-of-the-road matchup for Nix, but the floor is lower than many might think for Nix in Week 1. Nix should have plenty of time in the pocket against a defense that, overall, last year was second-worst in pressure rate and quarterback hurry rate.

RJ Harvey (RB)

R.J. Harvey, in his limited preseason action, got all the work on first and second downs while giving up the pass protection assignments on third down to other backs. He looks primed to lead this backfield immediately out of the gate. Harvey ranked inside the top 20 among FBS running backs in each of the last two seasons in breakaway percentage and elusive rating. Over the last two years, Payton has ranked fifth and first in running back target share. Last year, Tennessee faced the third-fewest running back targets, but they allowed 81.1% of them to be secured while giving up the most receiving touchdowns to backs in the NFL. Payton will try to exploit this in Week 1. Last year, in Weeks 10-18, Tennessee allowed the second-most rushing yards per game and seventh-most yards after contact per attempt while having the 14th-lowest stuff rate. They surrendered the third-highest yards per carry to gap runs (5.22) during that stretch and the ninth-highest gap rushing success rate. In the preseason, 38% of Harvey’s runs were with a gap design. Tennessee did add Cody Barton and Xavier Woods this offseason to upgrade their defense overall and their run defense, so they could be improved against gap runs. We’ll have to see.

J.K. Dobbins (RB)

Last year, J.K. Dobbins had a nice bounce-back season as the RB18 in fantasy points per game with 227 touches and 1,058 total yards. Among 46 qualifying backs, he ranked 17th in explosive run rate, but he was outside the top 25 backs in missed tackles forced per attempt and yards after contact per attempt. Dobbins should be the third down/pass protection back while also taking some of the rushing load off of R.J. Harvey. Last year, in Weeks 10-18, Tennessee allowed the second-most rushing yards per game and seventh-most yards after contact per attempt while having the 14th-lowest stuff rate. They surrendered the third-highest yards per carry to gap runs (5.22) during that stretch and the ninth-highest gap rushing success rate. Last year, 59% of Dobbins’ runs were with gap design, and he had 4.95 yards per carry. Tennessee did add Cody Barton and Xavier Woods this offseason to upgrade their defense overall and their run defense, so they could be improved against gap runs. We’ll have to see in Week 1, but I would be surprised if Sean Payton didn’t try to test it.

Tony Pollard (RB)

Last year, Tony Pollard had a strong 2024 season as the Titans’ workhorse starter. With Tyjae Spears out for the early portion of this season, Pollard is primed to revisit that workload. Last year, he ranked ninth in snap share, opportunity, and weighted opportunities. Pollard finished as the RB22 in fantasy points per game while ranking 18th in explosive run rate and sixth in yards after contact per attempt. Pollard will face an uphill battle against Denver’s run defense in Week 1. Last year, in Weeks 10-18, Denver allowed the second-fewest rushing yards per game, the 11th-lowest missed tackle rate, and had the second-highest stuff rate. Pollard, hopefully, can get into the endzone and survive as a volume play in Week 1.

**I’m not starting any Denver wide receiver in Week 1 until we see how they are deployed. Denver could continue to be a wide receiver by committee approach behind Sutton.**

Fantasy Football Week 1 Flex Plays & Fades

Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.

Cam Ward (QB)

Cam Ward is the face of the franchise moving forward. The Titans desperately need Ward to establish himself in 2025 and offer the team hope that they have the right player to lead them into the future. Ward’s game can be a high-wire act from one down to the next. There are plenty of high-end moments and special plays, but Ward also has plenty of misfires and can run through cold stretches in games. In his final collegiate season, he ranked fourth in yards per attempt and 12th in big-time throw rate, but he was also 22nd in pressure-adjusted completion rate and 32nd in clean pocket-adjusted completion rate. Week 1 isn’t the week to look for a ceiling performance from Ward. Denver will give him fits. Last year, Denver ranked second in pressure rate and sixth in blitz rate. In Weeks 10-18, they allowed the 14th-lowest yards per attempt, the sixth-lowest passer rating, and the seventh-lowest CPOE.

Courtland Sutton (WR)

Last year, after Bo Nix took off, Courtland Sutton was the WR20 in fantasy points per game. In Weeks 5-18, Sutton had a 22.7% target share while ranking 17th in yards per route run, 22nd in receiving yards per game, 19th in first-read share, and ninth-best in first downs per route run. Overall, he was the WR24 in fantasy points per game, but he was the WR9 in expected fantasy points per game. If L’Jarius Sneed is fully healthy, he could shadow Sutton in Week 1. Last year, in Weeks 1-4, Sneed followed D.J. Moore, Garrett Wilson, Romeo Doubs, and Tyreek Hill on 50-66.7% of their routes, holding all of them to 35 or fewer receiving yards in his coverage. If Sneed follows him in Week 1 (which is what I’m expecting), Sutton could have a quiet game.

Calvin Ridley (WR)

Calvin Ridley had to suffer through horrible quarterback play last year en route to a WR36 finish in fantasy points per game. Among 85 qualifying receivers, Ridley finished 78th in catchable target rate. He finished 31st in target share and receiving yards per game, 32nd in yards per route run, and 33rd in separation and route win rate. He was the WR28 in expected fantasy points per game. Ridley will have to get by with volume in Week 1 because his outlook is rough with a Patrick Surtain II shadow incoming. Surtain ll shadowed seven times last year, following D.K. Metcalf, Ja’Marr Chase, Mike Evans, George Pickens, DeAndre Hopkins, Jerry Jeudy, and Garrett Wilson on 60-4-96% of their routes. No wide receiver eclipsed 54 receiving yards in his coverage, and six of them didn’t surpass 40 receiving yards. Ridley is headed to the shadow realm for Week 1.

Elic Ayomanor (WR)

Elic Ayomanor got a lot of positive buzz during the NFL Draft process and in the preseason. Ayomanor is a detailed route runner who can stretch the field (top-60 in aDOT across his final two seasons). In his final two collegiate seasons, he ranked 137th and 78th in yards per route run (per PFF). Ayomanor could easily assume the WR2 in this offense quickly after he earned a starting job for Tennessee, but this isn’t the matchup to consider flexing him. Last year, in Weeks 10-18, Denver held perimeter wide receivers to the seventh-fewest PPR points per target.

Evan Engram (TE)

Last year, Evan Engram ranked 20th in yards per route run, but his target-drawing ability was just fine, ranking fifth in targets per route run and third in target share. He was also dealing with shoulder and hamstring issues. Those were his first injuries to deal with during a season since 2021. In Engram’s two previous seasons, he ranked 13th and 14th in yards per route run and second and 12th in target share. Also, in 2023-2024, Engram excelled in one of the hallmark metrics that I look at when evaluating talent and upside at the tight end position: yards per route run versus man coverage. In those seasons, Engram ranked fourth and eighth in this metric. Engram still has massive upside in this offense, but his preseason usage is concerning. In the third week of preseason action, he had only a 64% route per dropback rate. If that holds all season, it’ll cap his upside in fantasy. I’m unsure that it will. Engram has a tough matchup for Week 1 against a defense that gave up the ninth-fewest schedule-adjusted fantasy points per game to tight ends.

Chig Okonkwo (TE)

Last year, in Weeks 15-17, Chig Okonkwo finally started to hit his stride in the Tennessee offense with a 72.8% route per dropback rate, a 24.3% target share, 2.19 yards per route run, and a 33.3% first-read share. He had weekly scoring finishes as the TE6, TE2, and TE17 while drawing only one red zone target. He might have plenty of streamable weeks this season once bye weeks hit, but it won’t be to open the season. Last year, Denver allowed the fifth-fewest schedule-adjusted fantasy points per game to tight ends.

DAL vs. PHI | KC vs. LAC | TB vs. ATL | LV vs. NE | CIN vs. CLE | CAR vs. JAC | MIA vs. IND | PIT vs. NYJ | ARI vs. NO | NYG vs. WAS | SF vs. SEA | TEN vs. DEN | DET vs. GB | HOU vs. LAR | BAL vs. BUF | MIN vs. CHI