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Fantasy Football Trade Advice: Players to Buy
Players to Buy
Justin Jefferson continues to perform at a high level despite inconsistent QB play. 4th in the NFL in target share (29%). 5th in air yards share (45%). 13th in PPG. He continues to get it done in this offense regardless of the QB. I think this kind of makes him a sneaky buy-low candidate with concerns about how his production will be when J.J. McCarthy returns. It’s certainly possible that it gets worse with the young QB back. However, there’s still a real upside case with JJ. Jefferson’s floor is so high that I think it might be worth the risk to see what his asking price is in your league.
Drake London did all of his damage in the first half back in Week 4, with 6-95-1 (RZ score) on 7 first-half targets. The Falcons’ No. 1 WR finally had the breakout game (38% target share, 40% target rate per route run) that I was hoping for when I was pumping his draft stock all offseason. London remains a buy and target if he can be acquired cheaper coming out of his bye week. I like the schedule coming up after the Falcons’ bye week (top-6 ROS). Keep in mind that the Falcons fired their previous WR coach before Week 4, in an effort to get more offensive WR production. So far, so good.
Through four games, London is the WR8 in expected PPG and PFF’s 10th-highest graded WR.
Can’t really do much with the Ravens but hold their guys. They will likely get destroyed again next week at home versus the Rams if they remain as injured as they currently are. The latest is that Lamar Jackson has an “outside shot” of playing in Week 6. Hopefully, Lamar Jackson can come healthy out of the Week 7 bye week.
But post-bye week…
It’s a SMASH spot for the Ravens offense – specifically with Derrick Henry. Bears/Dolphins. Sharp managers should be looking to buy low on Henry (presuming they have positive records and don’t need the King over the next few games).
Breece Hall played 62% of the snaps with Braelon Allen out. Isaiah Davis played 40% of the snaps. Hall did get “injured” after he fumbled toward the end of the first half but he returned to start the second half. Touches were still very much in favor of Hall over Davis (18-4). Hall also saw a goal-line carry from the 3-yard line in pursuit of his first TD score this season. Alas, stuffed for a 4-yard loss.
Even so, the bell cow usage and 100-plus yards from scrimmage for Hall make him a buy with Braelon Allen on IR (out for 8-12 weeks). After the Broncos…Hall will face the Panthers, Bengals before the bye week.
Tetairoa McMillan remains a priority buy-low target after seeing a 27% target share in Week 5 (6-73 on 8 targets with two more RZ targets). Head and shoulders above every other Panthers WR. Shown an extremely high-floor through 5 games (8-plus targets in each contest). 23% target share and 42% air yards share on the season (10th).
Dallas up next. Top-7 schedule ROS for WRs.
Jacory Croskey-Merritt (RB – WAS)
Trust the process. In Bill we trust! As bad as my Trey Benson “buy” call aged (like spoiled milk), buying Croskey-Merritt aged like fine wine. Full takeover in Week 5. 47% snap share and drew the start. Nearly a flawless day for the super explosive rookie RB (aside from a lost fumble) as he averaged 7.9 yards per carry and 19.5 yards per reception. Totaled 111 rushing yards and scored two TDs.
Buy good RBs. Bears/Cowboys up next. Saddle up, Bill. No.1 schedule rest of season for RBs? The Washington Commanders.
Chris Rodriguez played 25% of the snaps, and so did Jeremy McNichols. C-Rob might be annoying in red-zone situations (out-carried JCM 4-2 in the red zone). 80% of his carries came inside the 14-yard line (at the end of the game). But JCM did at least score from the 5-yard line.
The universe is doing everything in it’s power to get TreyVeon Henderson more involved. Rhamondre Stevenson fumbled again. Antonio Gibson is going to miss the rest of the season with a torn ACL. Henderson continues to be a buy – even if the statistics say otherwise. With the backfield down to just 2 RBs…(with one having a serious fumbling problem) it’s not hard to see how this works out for the rookie RB. Buy.
In Week 5, Henderson played 50% of the snaps to Stevenson’s 52% snap share. Stevenson got the red-zone touches….but we know his role is on extremely thin ice.
Assuming that Ricky Pearsall‘s health is in check…I want to buy low on him. Although he was not at the 49ers’ early week Monday practice (Jauan Jennings was there, Brock Purdy was not).
Before making a deal for Pearsall…let’s get him back to practice first. Not following for another Trey Benson fiasco. But if he’s healthy. Smash buy. Top-15 in yards this year despite battling injuries. And he is PFF’s 13th-highest graded WR.
Stefon Diggs continues to dominate in the Pats offense…after he broke out in Week 4. 10-146 on 12 targets (40% target share). He’s back to pre-injury form, and the WR1 rest of the season for New England. And he is so overdue for a TD score. He seemed to fall just short of the end zone on multiple occasions versus Buffalo despite looks near the end zone.
Patriots are BUYs because their schedule is so easy rest of the season. If you could buy-low on Drake Maye…after a zero TD game…DO IT.
Dalton Kincaid continues to deliver strong performances after strong performances. The usage is middling – 54% snap rate in Week 5 – but Kincaid’s hyper-target rate makes him fantasy viable. Being attached to Josh Allen also helps.
With the Bills’ rotation of WRs extending to four guys…Kincaid is emerging as the Bills’ pass-catcher to own. Especially given his fantasy TE designation. The Bills TE ranks 7th among all TEs in target rate per route run this season (23.5%).
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