Unfortunately, I didn’t turn things around with my bold predictions last week. Not only did I get all three bold predictions wrong, but they weren’t particularly close to being correct.
As a result, my season ledger sits at a putrid 3-15. On the plus side, I can’t do worse this week. It’s back to the drawing board with the following three bold predictions for Week 7.
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Week 7 Fantasy Football Bold Predictions
Medium
Jonathan Taylor and Justin Herbert Will Combine For 425+ Yards and Multiple Touchdowns
This isn’t an outrageously bold prediction. We project Jonathan Taylor for 119.7 scrimmage yards and one touchdown, and tab Justin Herbert for 253.6 passing yards, 1.7 passing touchdowns, 20.5 rushing yards and 0.1 rushing touchdowns. Thus, our projections would amount to 393.8 yards and 2.8 touchdowns.
Still, this prediction exceeds our weekly projections and their season averages. Taylor has averaged 125 scrimmage yards and 1.3 touchdowns per game, and Herbert is averaging 274.6 yards and 1.7 touchdowns per game.
Both players should thrive in a probable shootout. Taylor leads the NFL with 100.5 rushing yards per game and eight total touchdowns, and the Chargers have folded against the run. According to the data suite at Fantasy Points, Los Angeles has coughed up the fifth-most rushing yards per game (153.7), 5.07 yards per carry and five rushing touchdowns since Week 4.
Meanwhile, the Colts have a pass-funnel defense, and the Chargers run a pass-happy offense. According to RotoViz’s pace app, Indy has faced the fourth-highest situation-neutral pass rate (63%) this year, and the Chargers have the highest situation-neutral pass rate (64%).
Finally, the Colts’ lackluster and banged-up secondary coughed up 320 passing yards, two passing touchdowns and 19 rushing yards to Jacoby Brissett last week. Herbert and his weapons are a more imposing matchup this week.
Hot
Michael Mayer Will Finish as a Top-8 Tight End in Half-PPR Formats This Week
Michael Mayer’s odds for scoring a touchdown this week are likely bleak. The Raiders are 11.5-point underdogs, and the game’s projected total is 45.5 points, leaving Las Vegas with an implied total of 17 points.
While Las Vegas’ implied total is low, Mayer could strike paydirt. Regardless, he might be busy enough in a negative game script to crack the top eight tight ends in half-PPR scoring this week.
According to the data suite at Fantasy Points, Mayer recorded the following numbers last week without Brock Bowers:
- 80% route participation rate
- 2.1-yard average depth of target (aDOT)
- 30.0% air yards share
- 30.4% target share
- 0.35 targets per route run
- 23.1% first-read rate
- 7 targets
- 5 receptions
- 50 receiving yards
- 1 touchdown
Bowers will likely miss another game with his knee injury, and Jakobi Meyers has only one more opportunity to practice this week after missing Wednesday’s and Thursday’s practices with knee and toe injuries. Mayer should be a key cog in Las Vegas’ passing attack this week, and garbage-time points count the same as those scored in competitive contests.
Atomic
Javonte Williams Will Reach at Least 20 Half-PPR Points Against the Commanders
Javonte Williams is in a nifty bounce-back spot from his first lousy game this season. He had only 34 scoreless scrimmage yards and five receptions last week. Even with last week’s down game, Williams is averaging 93.2 scrimmage yards per game and 3.7 receptions per game with six touchdowns this season.
Circling back to the matchup, the Commanders have a run-funnel defense. Washington is tied for the second-highest situation-neutral rush rate (48%) faced this season. Moreover, they’ve yielded the seventh-most rushing yards per game (142.7), 4.70 yards per carry and three rushing touchdowns since Week 4.
Williams has averaged 16.8 half-PPR points per game this year, and we project him for 14.6 half-PPR points this week. I believe Williams will markedly exceed both his season average and Week 7 projection in a probable shootout and exceed 20 half-PPR points this week.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
