Did you know that four weeks into the season is when current-season results become more predictive of rest-of-season fantasy football scoring than preseason rankings? With that in mind, it’s time to truly put our faith in this year’s data in FantasyPros’ fantasy points allowed tool.
Of course, context in terms of specific opponents and game scripts is still relevant. However, I won’t be referring to last year’s numbers unless there is a specific reason why they might be relevant. With that in mind, let’s get started finding the best and worst fantasy football matchups at every position for Week 5.
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Fantasy Points Allowed: Best & Worst Matchups (Week 5)
Week 5 Quarterback Fantasy Football Matchups
Good Matchup: Justin Fields (QB – NYJ) vs. Dallas Cowboys
At this point, we can pencil in whichever quarterback is facing the Cowboys as the “good matchup” pick every week. With a capable offense and a terrible defense, Dallas is a perfect opponent for fantasy quarterbacks; they lead the league with 27.7 points per game given up to the position. Justin Fields is a volatile option, with some huge games and some absolute duds. Based on the matchup, he’s in for a boom week.
Bad Matchup: Drake Maye (QB – NE) @ Buffalo Bills
Technically, the Bills are an above-average matchup for quarterbacks, ranking 14th-highest in points allowed to the position. But that number is misleading. If we look under the hood, Buffalo’s defense has actually allowed the fewest passing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks (141). Their overall fantasy numbers are dragged down by a high number of touchdowns and a low number of interceptions, given their yards allowed (which is likely variance) and rushing stats (which are due to facing Lamar Jackson and Justin Fields in 50% of their matchups).
To be fair, Drake Maye is a decent dual-threat quarterback. But he’s no Jackson, and he’s not even really Fields. With the first week of byes and some injuries to top options, the sophomore quarterback is currently the QB6 in the expert consensus rankings (ECR) for Week 5. On the road in Buffalo, he should be viewed more as a low-end QB1 than a top-six option.
Week 5 Running Back Fantasy Football Matchups
Good Matchup: Woody Marks (RB – HOU) @ Baltimore Ravens
Woody Marks had a breakout game last week, taking over as the Texans’ No. 1 RB and dropping nearly 30 fantasy points in the process. However, he did all this against the hapless Titans. Houston’s offense, and its offensive line, in particular, has struggled when faced with tougher matchups.
Thankfully, this week is not looking like a tougher matchup. The Ravens’ defense seems to have regressed over the offseason, and they lead the league with over 30 points per game given up to opposing backs. They rank fifth in both rushing yards per game and receiving yards per game allowed to running backs, which is good for Marks as a dual-threat back.
The one potential concern would be the Texans falling so far behind that they can’t run the ball. But that gets far less likely with Lamar Jackson trending toward missing this week — the Texans are currently only 1.5-point underdogs on the road. Don’t be afraid to pick the fourth-round rookie up and slam him straight into your lineup for this mathcup.
Bad Matchup: Jacory Croskey-Merritt (RB – WSH) @ Los Angeles Chargers
Long-term, I’m actually still bullish about Jacory Croskey-Merritt’s potential. Yes, he’s currently stuck in an ugly three-way committee with Jeremy McNichols and Chris Rodriguez. But the rookie leads the league, including his two teammates, by a wide margin in Pro Football Focus (PFF) rush grade. He should eventually consolidate at least the groundwork in this offense and begin providing solid fantasy numbers.
However, I don’t expect that to start this week. The Chargers’ defense is the second-toughest matchup in the league for running backs, giving up just 12.8 points per game to the position. They don’t stand out in any one metric; they have simply suppressed running back production across the board. Even in the first week of byes, you should be able to find a better option than Croskey-Merritt in this matchup.
Week 5 Wide Receiver Fantasy Football Matchups
Good Matchup: Chris Olave (WR – NO) vs. New York Giants
Coming into Week 4, it felt like every fantasy analyst in the world (myself included) was in on Chris Olave. After all, he led the league in targets and had provided a solid floor despite not scoring a touchdown. Inevitably, Olave had his worst game of the season. He had negative points at halftime thanks to throwing an interception on a trick play, but eventually finished with a respectable day thanks to a late touchdown.
However, don’t be discouraged and take Olave out of your lineup. This week, he returns to the dome in New Orleans for an excellent matchup with the Giants’ woeful secondary. The Giants have given up 34.2 points per game to opposing receivers, second only to the aforementioned sieve the Cowboys call a defense. Olave is still the clear top target on a team that plays super fast. Fire him up with confidence this week.
Bad Matchup: Jerry Jeudy (WR – CLE) vs. Minnesota Vikings (London Game)
The Joe Flacco experience hasn’t been pretty for the Browns’ offense so far this season. The volume is still there, as it usually is in Kevin Stefanski’s offenses — Flacco ranks second in the league in pass attempts. But his efficiency has been dreadful, and it’s killing the fantasy value of all of Cleveland’s receivers.
Jeudy is no exception, with a miserable 6.2 half-PPR points per game. In fact, I considered not including him at all, because he might simply be an auto-bench regardless of the matchup. But with Cedric Tillman injured just in time for the first week of byes, I figured some managers might be tempted to give Jeudy one last chance. I’m here to say you shouldn’t, as the Vikings have shut down opposing receivers to the tune of a league-low 16.4 points per game. Brian Flores is cooking. Jeudy should see plenty of volume, but he is only a risky Flex play this week.
Week 5 Tight End Fantasy Football Matchups
Good Matchup: Tommy Tremble (TE – CAR) vs. Miami Dolphins
With Ja’Tavion Sanders sidelined by an ankle injury, Tommy Tremble was the Panthers’ clear No. 1 TE in Week 4. He posted just a mediocre 58% route participation rate, but made up for it with a 19% target share. Overall, he caught five of his seven targets for 42 yards and a score, good for a TE7 finish on the week.
Assuming Sanders remains out, Tremble is well-situated to provide another usable outing in Week 5. The Dolphins have given up the second-most points per game to opposing tight ends. While they’ve faced some decent receiving tight ends in Dalton Kincaid, Tyler Warren and Hunter Henry, it’s not like they were gashed by elite options. They’ve also allowed Mason Taylor, Jackson Hawes and Austin Hooper to have decent (by tight end standards) outings. Tremble could be next to join that list, making him a streaming option if you are desperate at tight end this week.
Bad Matchup: Evan Engram (TE – DEN) @ Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles’ defense has allowed a measly 4.2 points per game to opposing tight ends. They rank in the bottom five in each of receptions (3.5), yards (24.3) and touchdowns (0.0) given up per game to the position. Meanwhile, Evan Engram is averaging a somehow even worse 3.4 half-PPR points per game.
Engram has dealt with injuries, but his usage has ranged from bad to appalling, even when healthy. There are almost certainly better options (Tremble included) than Engram on your waiver wire this week.
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Ted Chmyz is a fantasy football contributor for FantasyPros.com. Find him on Twitter and Bluesky @Tchmyz for more fantasy content or to ask questions.
