The current week of NFL DFS is always my favorite week. The slate is clean, and we are not forced to deal with our draft day mistakes like we do in managed seasonal leagues. It is all about honing in on value plays and which ones to slot in our DFS lineups.
This article aims to decipher values in the lobbies. It is not meant to be a roster builder. Instead, it will help identify key players priced below their production potential based on various factors for DraftKings and FanDuel.
This week, we have a 10-game slate due to bye weeks. Between bye weeks and injuries, we have to dig a little deep for the value plays. Let’s get to it.
NFL DFS Value Plays: Week 7
Quarterbacks
This is more of a matchup-based selection, so allow me to offer full transparency, statistically speaking. Over six weeks, Spencer Rattler has finished as a QB1 just one time (QB10 in Week 2) and a middling to low-end QB2 in the other five games.
Rattler is the QB25 in fantasy points per game and only has six touchdowns. However, he has played clean, only tossing one interception thus far. Rattler also adds some value with his legs, averaging 23.8 rushing yards per game.
This week, Rattler leads the Saints against the Chicago Bears, a team allowing the fifth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks. They also allow the fourth-most passing touchdowns to opposing quarterbacks.
This is not a slam dunk play, but it does have the potential for Rattler to outscore his salary and allow for more expensive skill position players. Rattler should only be used in GPP contests, and fits better for multiple lineup players.
Without completely dumpster diving, FanDuel offers fewer values per salary at the quarterback position for this slate, meaning we have to pay up a little, capping the value to some degree. That said, Justin Herbert is in a good spot for his value to exceed cost this week.
On the season, Herbert is the QB11 in fantasy points per game, eighth in passing yards and 10th in passing touchdowns. In most metrics, he is a lower-end QB1 every week. To sweeten the pot, Herbert has been using his legs more, averaging just over 25 rushing yards per game.
The Colts’ defense is allowing the 12th-most passing yards per game and the 10th-most passing touchdowns. This game features a 48.5 projected total, implying some back and forth between these two offenses.
Herbert can be stacked in a variety of ways, making him viable in both cash and GPP contests this week.
Running Backs
Jacory Croskey-Merritt, aka Bill, has assumed a lead dog-type role for the Commanders. Last week, he handled 17 of the 19 rush attempts and ran a route on 40% of Washington’s dropbacks. The rookie is being trusted with the volume and in some of the more high-value situations, such as goal-line work. Two weeks ago, he finished as the RB5 on the back of two rushing touchdowns. Volume is important to running backs. Croskey-Merritt averages 11.5 opportunities per game.
Meanwhile, the Cowboys allow the fourth-most fantasy points to the position. They are allowing the sixth-most rushing yards (109.5), 0.7 rushing touchdowns and the most receiving yards to the position. In a game that features a 53.5 projected total, pieces of both offenses should be in play.
A deep pivot for multiple lineup players would be Jeremy McNichols ($4,600), as he is filling the role of the third-down/hurry-up offense role.
This matchup is one of the higher projected point totals on the slate and should be mined for value. Croskey-Merritt has the volume versus cost role and is not a bad stack with Jayden Daniels, who could easily finish as the overall QB1 this week.
Selecting any running back over Alvin Kamara seems ridiculous, but this is a value versus cost discussion, and Kamara is $1,200 more, despite a lower production versus volume rate. However, the matchup is too good to ignore, so let’s look at some of the statistics side by side.
Kamara’s usage has dropped to 58% while Kendre Miller’s has risen to 50% over the course of six weeks. Kamara has retained his role in the passing game, averaging a 19% target share against Miller’s 3% target share. On average, in a half-PPR scoring environment, Kamara is averaging 9.76 fantasy points per game compared to Miller’s 5.02 points per game. Neither is significant, but one of these backs is going to make a house call in this game.
The Bears allow the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing running backs and the sixth-most rushing yards. They have also allowed running backs to score six times this season, whether through the air or on the ground.
Miller can be viewed as a Flex play, with volume opportunity and scoring upside in a plus matchup for this slate. He should be treated as a Flex play in GPP contests.
Wide Receivers
Chris Olave is the WR27 in PPR points per game. While not spectacular, the volume has been solid. He is currently second among the position in targets and averaging a gaudy 29.5% target share. He is averaging 10.6 targets per game but only has one score to show for it. That type of usage leads to positive regression. The touchdowns are coming, and this matchup could lead to at least one.
The Bears allow the sixth-most fantasy production to the position. They are allowing an average of 1.6 touchdowns per contest to wide receivers and 137.8 receiving yards. Olave is fifth in red-zone looks, again pointing to regression.
With a 45.5 projected total, this game should feature some scoring on both sides, making multiple players viable in a DFS setting. Due to sheer target volume, Olave can be used in both cash and GPP contests.
Matthew Golden is starting to show up. Granted, it has taken some injuries ahead of him to get there, and Green Bay likes to spread the ball around. Golden is averaging 2.88 yards per route run, a good mark, on a 15.9% target share. Over his last three games, he is averaging five targets for 65.3 yards per contest. During that same stretch, Golden is averaging 17.76 yards per reception, but does not have a touchdown to show for it. He also handles a few carries out of the backfield, bolstering his fantasy floor.
The Cardinals allow the 12th-most receiving yards to perimeter wide receivers. They have surrendered an average of 151.3 receiving yards per contest, most of which has been to the outside.
This game has a 44.5 projected total, and Golden represents more upside than any other Packers receiver. His big-play ability makes him a threat for regression and to finally cash in on his first NFL touchdown. For all intents and purposes, he is a GPP contest selection.
Tight Ends
Harold Fannin Jr. has seen a usage increase and is likely to see more this week with David Njoku ruled out. The versatile rookie is the TE16 in points per game over the season, but the TE11 over the last two weeks. He has seen his target percentage rise a little with Dillon Gabriel at the helm, and saw a bump in target share last week when Njoku left. Now, as the primary tight end in the mix, Fannin truly has his chance to shine.
The Dolphins allow the seventh-most fantasy production to the position. To make it more fun, Fannin lines up all over the formation, but acts more like a big slot receiver. They surrender 68.3 receiving yards to the position.
The stars are aligned for Fannin this week. He’s a versatile big-slot receiver who can also take carries out of the backfield. With Njoku ruled out, he has less target competition. The matchup is positive. The salary is gorgeous for the potential production. Fannin could challenge Jerry Jeudy for the most targets and yards this week. He is locked in for the role and can be used in both cash and GPP contests as a tight end or even as a Flex play.
Mason Taylor has two TE1 finishes over the last three weeks. The rookie is solidifying his role in this offense, and Justin Fields is treating him as a safety blanket over the middle. His target share has risen to 22% over the last three weeks, and he is averaging 44.6 yards per game over the last three weeks, despite only two receiving yards in last week’s outing.
The Panthers ignore the tight end position, allowing the second-most fantasy production to the position. They are allowing the most receiving yards to the position thus far.
Taylor is in the TE1 discussion for the week based on personnel, usage and matchup. His price point is set to be exceeded by his production. He is a value in both cash and GPP contests this week.
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John Hesterman is a featured writer and Expert Consensus Ranker at FantasyPros. He also writes for DynastyLeagueFootball.com. For more from John, check out his archive and follow him on Bluesky @John-Hesterman or Twitter/X @John_Hesterman.
