The Primer: Week 7 Edition (2025 Fantasy Football)

Atlanta Falcons vs. San Francisco 49ers

• SF -1.5, O/U 47
• Atlanta Falcons vs. San Francisco 49ers Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Falcons Players & Weekly Rankings

49ers Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• Bijan Robinson
• Drake London
• Christian McCaffrey
• George Kittle 

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

N/A

Fantasy Football Flex & Deep Plays to Consider

Let’s fill out those flex spots.

Michael Penix Jr. (QB)

Michael Penix Jr. is the QB30 in fantasy points per game. He has two QB1 weekly finishes this season (QB10, QB12). Overall, he has struggled as a passer this season. Among 41 qualifying passers, he ranks 15th in yards per attempt, 29th in highly accurate throw rate, 36th in catchable target rate, 32nd in fantasy points per dropback, and he has the seventh-highest off-target rate. I wouldn’t expect more than QB2 numbers this week. San Francisco has allowed the tenth-most passing touchdowns (tied), the seventh-highest passer rating, and the 14th-highest CPOE.

Tyler Allgeier (RB)

Is Tyler Allgeier worth playing as a flex? The answer is simple. Do you think Atlanta wins this week’s game? If the answer to that question is yes…then yes, most likely he is worth flexing. In Atlanta’s three wins this season, Allgeier has averaged 14.6 touches and 56.3 total yards with three scores. In their two losses, he has averaged only six touches and 14 scoreless total yards. Among 50 qualifying backs, Allgeier ranks seventh in explosive run rate and 36th in yards after contact per attempt. San Francisco has allowed the sixth-highest missed tackle rate, the tenth-most yards before contact per attempt, the seventh-highest yards per carry to zone runs, and the tenth-highest success rate to zone runs (Allgeier 67.9% zone).

Kendrick Bourne (WR)

I’ll lead this off with the matchup sucks for Bourne this week, but he’s operating in the 49ers offense as this year’s Jauan Jennings. He has been the team’s clear WR1 over the last two games. Even with Jennings back last week, that was still the case. Last week, Bourne had a 23.1% target share with a 38.9% air-yard share, 142 receiving yards (3.74 yards per route run), and a 34.6% first-read share. Zoom out, and since Week 5, he has had a 22.7% target share with a 35.9% air-yard share, 3.74 yards per route run (142 receiving yards per game), and a 29% first-read share. Bourne was the WR6 and WR11 in weekly scoring over the last two weeks with two red zone targets. Bourne should still get fed volume this week and serve as a nice flex play despite the horrible matchup. Atlanta has allowed the 11th-fewest PPR points per target and the seventh-fewest receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.

Concerning Starts & Players to Fade

Players in consideration for lineups, but temper your expectations this week.

Mac Jones (QB)

Mac Jones will start for the 49ers this week. He is the QB16 in fantasy points per game with two QB1 performances in his four starts (QB9, QB10). Among 41 qualifying passers, he ranks 14th in yards per attempt, first in passing yards per game, 17th in highly accurate throw rate, 20th in catchable target rate, and ninth in hero throw rate. He’s just another run-of-the-mill QB2 this week. The Falcons’ pass defense has been stout this season, allowing the second-fewest yards per attempt, the third-lowest passer rating, and the fourth-lowest success rate per dropback.

Jauan Jennings (WR)

Jauan Jennings stated that he has multiple broken ribs and ankle issues right now. He was limited in practice all week and doesn’t carry an injury designation into this week. It’s tough to trust him in a fantasy lineup after his performance last week, his injury status, and the matchup this week. Last week, he had a 76.6% route share, but he had only a 7.7% target share, seven receiving yards, and an 11.5% first-read share. Those aren’t numbers that lead to fantasy success, especially against a secondary that has allowed the 11th-fewest PPR points per target and the seventh-fewest receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers. Sit Jennings.

Darnell Mooney (WR)

Darnell Mooney practiced in a limited fashion on Wednesday and Thursday before missing Friday’s practice. He has been listed as questionable (hamstring). He’ll likely a coin flip to play this week. In Mooney’s two full games this season, he finished as the WR87 and WR43 in weekly scoring. In Weeks 2-3, he had a 21.3% target share while averaging 32 receiving yards (1.03 yards per route run) with a 26.2% first-read share. In his three games played, Mooney has three deep targets and two red zone targets. He’s a low-end flex play best left on the bench this week. The 49ers have allowed the third-fewest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.

Ricky Pearsall (WR)

Ricky Pearsall has been ruled out for Week 7.

Kyle Pitts (TE)

Kyle Pitts is the TE14 in fantasy points per game with three red zone and zero deep targets. He has a 17.1% target share with 44.6 receiving yards per game (1.43 yards per route run) and a 14.8% first-read share. Pitts is a sit this week. The 49ers have held tight ends to the 12th-fewest receiving yards per game, the tenth-lowest yards per reception, and the 14th-fewest fantasy points per game.

PIT vs. CIN | LAR vs.JAC | NE vs. TEN | NO vs. CHI | MIA vs. CLE | CAR vs. NYJ | PHI vs. MIN | LV vs. KC | NYG vs. DEN | IND vs. LAC | WAS vs. DAL | GB vs. ARI | ATL vs. SF | TB vs. DET | HOU vs.SEA

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Detroit Lions

• DET -5.5, O/U 52.5
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Detroit Lions Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Buccaneers Players & Weekly Rankings

*Mike Evans and Emeka Egbuka are game-time decisions. Sterling Shepard and Tez Johnson are solid flex plays if Evans and Egbuka are out, but if either or both of them play, Shepard and Johnson are only dice roll flex plays.*

Lions Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• Baker Mayfield
• Jahmyr Gibbs
• Amon-Ra St. Brown
• Sam LaPorta

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Jared Goff (QB)

Jared Goff is the QB14 in fantasy points per game, with two outings this season where he has surpassed 20 fantasy points. Among 41 qualifying passers, he ranks eighth in yards per attempt, first in passing touchdowns, fifth in highly accurate throw rate, and third in catchable target rate. Goff should have a nice outing this week against a pass defense that has allowed the seventh-highest yards per attempt, the tenth-most passing yards per game, and the sixth-highest success rate per dropback. We know the Bucs will blitz Goff a ton as they rank fourth in blitz rate. The Bucs better be ready for Goff to shred them then because he ranks first in yards per attempt and third in passer rating against the blitz.

Mike Evans (WR)

Mike Evans might return this week, but he’s been ruled a game-time decision. I don’t blame anyone for taking it down to the wire with Evans considering the upside if he truly is back to full health. Evans practiced on a limited basis Thursday before logging a DNP Friday. He returned for a full practice on Saturday (hamstring). Evans could be running against Rock Ya-Sin (2025: 63.6% catch rate and 110.4 passer rating allowed) and Amik Robertson (2025: 69.6% catch rate and 123.6 passer rating allowed) all game. Evans wasn’t doing a ton with his volume before his injury with a 27.3% target share and 35.4% first-read share. He only produced 46.7 receiving yards per game and 1.56 yards per route run, but he also did have to begin the season against shadow assignments with Derek Stingley, Sauce Gardner, and A.J. Terrell. If Evans is a full-go, he could produce WR2 numbers against a secondary that has allowed the sixth-most PPR points per target and the seventh-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.

Emeka Egbuka (WR)

I thought Emeka Egbuka was sure to miss this week, but he’s trending toward playing. He didn’t practice until Saturday and only had a limited session. Per our “Are They Playing?” tool, Egbuka has an 80% chance to play. This doesn’t have to be complicated, considering what Egbuka has done this season. If he plays, you play him. Just make sure you have a backup option like Cade Otton or Sterling Shepard. If they aren’t out there, Jayden Higgins or Jaylin Noel might. The Texans suit up after the Bucs on Monday night, so one of those players would be the break glass in case of emergency option. Detroit has allowed the sixth-most PPR points per target and the seventh-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.

Fantasy Football Flex & Deep Plays to Consider

Let’s fill out those flex spots.

David Montgomery (RB)

David Montgomery is the RB21 in fantasy points per game, ranking 27th in carries and 11th in red zone touches. He has averaged 12.3 touches and 68.7 total yards per game. Among 50 qualifying backs, Montgomery ranks 12th in explosive run rate and sixth in yards after contact per attempt. Montgomery will have uphill sledding this week, but there’s a small ray of hope for him. The Bucs have held backs to the fifth-fewest rushing yards per game and the second-lowest missed tackle rate and yards after contact per attempt. The Bucs have allowed the 14th-highest yards per carry and rank 17th in success rate against zone runs. 67.7% of Montgomery’s runs have been with zone concepts. Montgomery is a touchdown-dependent RB2/3.

Jameson Williams (WR)

Jameson Williams is the WR45 in fantasy points per game with two WR1 weekly finishes (WR12 twice). Williams has the 11th-most deep targets among wide receivers, but only one red zone target (none since Week 1). Williams has a 16% target share, 48.2 receiving yards per game (1.73 yards per route run), and a 16.5% first-read share. This week, he faces a Bucs secondary that, since Week 5, has utilized two high at the second-highest rate (67.9%). Against two high, Williams has seen his target share dip to 9.8% with 1.40 yards per route run and an 11.5% first-read share. The coverage matchup for Williams is horrible, but he could still break a long play to save his day this week against a secondary that has allowed the fifth-most receiving yards per game and the ninth-most fantasy points per game to perimeter wide receivers.

Sterling Shepard (WR)

Sterling Shepard has two red zone targets and two top-36 finishes in weekly scoring this season (WR33, WR32). Shepard has a 13.8% target share, 1.64 yards per route run (40.3 receiving yards per game), and an 11.5% first-read share. Last week, in the second half with Emeka Egbuka out, Shepard’s role didn’t really change as he still was a 50/50 slot and perimeter player while earning a 12.5% target share. He’s a flex viable option this week, though, as the Lions have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points per game and the third-highest yards per reception to wide receivers.

Tez Johnson (WR)

Last week, in the second half, Johnson had a 100% route share, a 25% target share (two targets), a 57.1% air-yard share, and a 40% first-read share. Even if Mike Evans plays this week, I expect Johnson to be a full-time starter in three-wide receiver sets with Chris Godwin and Emeka Egbuka likely out. Overall, Johnson has a 17% target per route run rate, 1.87 yards per route run, and ten first-read targets with his 60 routes run this season. He’s a flex viable option this week as the Lions have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points per game and the third-highest yards per reception to wide receivers.

Cade Otton (TE)

Cade Otton has been a ghost for much of this year as the TE33 in fantasy points per game. He has reemerged in the passing offense over the last two weeks with 12.1 and 10.1 PPR points as the TE13 and TE17 in weekly scoring. He has only one red zone target this season, though. Over the last two games, Otton has had a 19.6% target share, 66 receiving yards per game (3.07 yards per route run), and an 11.1% first-read share. Otton is a strong streaming option at tight end this week against a Lions’ defense that has allowed the 14th-most receiving yards per game, the seventh-highest yards per reception, and the 12th-most fantasy points per game to tight ends.

Concerning Starts & Players to Fade

Players in consideration for lineups, but temper your expectations this week.

Rachaad White (RB)

Over the last two games, White has played 79.6% of the snaps with 19 touches and 78.5 total yards per game. He has had 31 of 40 running back carries and a 63.5% route share with a 12.5% target share. White hasn’t been particularly efficient with his volume this season, with only a 13% missed tackle rate and 1.91 yards after contact per attempt, but he’s always lived in that area code of efficiency and relied upon the volume. Detroit isn’t a great matchup, but White should flirt with 15-20 touches with outstanding touchdown equity to possibly outkick the tough defensive matchup. The Lions have allowed the 11th-fewest rushing yards per game, the seventh-lowest explosive run rate, and the fourth-fewest yards after contact per attempt.

Chris Godwin (WR)

Chris Godwin has been ruled out for Week 7.

PIT vs. CIN | LAR vs.JAC | NE vs. TEN | NO vs. CHI | MIA vs. CLE | CAR vs. NYJ | PHI vs. MIN | LV vs. KC | NYG vs. DEN | IND vs. LAC | WAS vs. DAL | GB vs. ARI | ATL vs. SF | TB vs. DET | HOU vs.SEA

Houston Texans vs. Seattle Seahawks

• SEA -3, O/U 41
• Houston Texans vs. Seattle Seahawks Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Texans Players & Weekly Rankings

Seahawks Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• Jaxon Smith-Njigba
• Nico Collins

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Kenneth Walker III (RB)

Since Week 4, Kenneth Walker has averaged a 43% snap rate with 39 of the 72 running back carries, and had a 26.9% route share (4.6% target share). He has averaged 14 touches and 77.7 total yards, with only six of the 19 running back red zone carries. It’s been tough to watch him lap Zach Charbonnet in every efficiency metric conceivable, and Seattle still utilizes Charbonnet so much and as their goal-line back. Walker has finished as the RB27, RB26, and RB43 in weekly scoring in those games, as he has scored zero touchdowns. Walker ranks second in explosive run rate and fifth in missed tackles forced per attempt. Walker should have another efficient day on the ground this week. If he can get into the end zone, he could post RB2 numbers in Week 7. Houston has allowed the seventh-fewest rushing yards per game and the 12th-lowest explosive run rate, but they have also managed the third-lowest stuff rate with the fourth-highest missed tackle rate, the 11th-highest yards after contact per attempt, and given up the second-highest success rate to zone runs (Walker 57.7% zone).

Fantasy Football Flex & Deep Plays to Consider

Let’s fill out those flex spots.

Sam Darnold (QB)

Sam Darnold might be the QB18 in fantasy points per game, but he has three QB1 outings in his last four games (QB10, QB2, QB9). Darnold has quietly been amazing on a per-dropback basis this season. It has been awesome to see. Darnold is first in yards per attempt, third in passer rating, ninth in highly accurate throw rate, and third in hero throw rate. Houston has fielded a stout pass defense, but Darnold has played so well that I think he still posts solid QB2 numbers this week. Houston has allowed the fifth-fewest yards per attempt, the lowest passer rating, and the sixth-lowest success rate per dropback.

C.J. Stroud (QB)

C.J. Stroud has only one QB1 weekly finish this season. That’s when he demolished the Ravens’ broken pass defense before the bye as the QB1 for the week. Stroud hasn’t finished higher than QB15 in any other week. Among 41 qualifying passers, he ranks 13th in yards per attempt and catchable target rate and 14th in highly accurate throw rate. He should be able to post QB2 numbers this week against a Seattle pass defense that has allowed the sixth-most passing yards per game, the tenth-most passing touchdowns, and ranks 16th in CPOE.

Zach Charbonnet (RB)

Since Week 4, Charbonnet has averaged 54.1% of the snaps while handing 33 of 72 running back carries with a 44.1% route share (5.7% target share) and 13 of 19 running back red zone carries. With scores in two of his last three games, he has finished as the RB26, RB24, and the RB43 in weekly scoring. Since Week 4, he has averaged 12.3 touches and 43 total yards. His fantasy output has been almost entirely reliant upon touchdowns. Charbonnet has a 12% missed tackle rate and only 1.90 yards after contact per attempt. He could easily post another RB2/3 performance this week against Houston. Houston has allowed the seventh-fewest rushing yards per game and the 12th-lowest explosive run rate, but they have also managed the third-lowest stuff rate with the fourth-highest missed tackle rate, the 11th-highest yards after contact per attempt, and given up the second-highest success rate to zone runs (Charbonnet 71.7% zone).

Dalton Schultz (TE)

Dalton Schultz is the matchup-based streaming option of the week at tight end. He hasn’t finished higher than TE16 in any week this season, but he could flirt with TE1 production this week. Schultz had 11 PPR points against Baltimore and two red zone targets (three red zone targets in his last three games), and if he came down with a touchdown, he would have been a strong TE1 that week. Schultz has a 17.6% target share with 37.2 receiving yards per game (1.60 yards per route run) and an 18.9% first-read share. Seattle has allowed the sixth-most schedule-adjusted fantasy points per game to tight ends.

Concerning Starts & Players to Fade

Players in consideration for lineups, but temper your expectations this week.

Nick Chubb (RB)

Just when we thought Woody Marks had taken over the Houston backfield, the Texans said, “Nope, I don’t think so.” In Week 5, in the first half (before the game got out of hand), Chubb played 51.5% of the snaps with eight of the 13 running back carries, and he had a 21.1% route share (5.9% target share). Chubb finished with 11 touches and 61 total yards while splitting the red zone carries with Marks. Chubbs’s per-touch metrics are still bad, with a 10% missed tackle rate and only 2.07 yards after contact per attempt. I don’t expect him to find much running room this week. Chubb is a touchdown-dependent flex this week. Seattle has allowed the second-fewest rushing yards per game and the lowest explosive run rate and yards after contact per attempt. Sit Chubb this week.

Woody Marks (RB)

Woody Marks got shoved back into the wrong side of a committee backfield before the bye. In the first half, before the game was out of hand, he played 45.5% of the snaps with only four of the 13 running back carries and a 36.8% route share (5.9% target share). Marks split the red zone work with Chubb, with each player getting two carries inside the 20-yard line. Marks has been the superior player on a per-touch basis with a 5.6% explosive run rate and 2.42 yards after contact per attempt. I don’t want to play Marks this week with a horrible matchup on the ground. Seattle has allowed the second-fewest rushing yards per game and the lowest explosive run rate and yards after contact per attempt.

Cooper Kupp (WR)

Cooper Kupp is the WR49 in fantasy points per game with three red zone targets in his last four games. He has three top-36 weekly finishes this season (WR21, WR32, WR24). Kupp has an 18.3% target share with 43.5 receiving yards per game (1.92 yards per route run), and a 21.7% first-read share. This isn’t the matchup to target if you’re looking to flex Kupp. Houston has allowed the sixth-fewest PPR points per target and the 11th-fewest fantasy points per game to slot receivers. Sit Kupp.

Christian Kirk (WR)

Christian Kirk has been ruled out for Week 7 (hamstring).

AJ Barner (TE)

AJ Barner is the TE13 in fantasy points per game with three TE1 outings on the 2025 resume (TE9, TE8, TE1). Barner has four red zone targets and four touchdowns across his last five games. Barner has an 11% target share with 34.2 receiving yards per game (1.93 yards per route run) and a 10.4% first-read share. This isn’t the week to steam him. Houston has allowed the eighth-fewest schedule-adjusted fantasy points per game and the fifth-fewest receiving yards per game to tight ends.

PIT vs. CIN | LAR vs.JAC | NE vs. TEN | NO vs. CHI | MIA vs. CLE | CAR vs. NYJ | PHI vs. MIN | LV vs. KC | NYG vs. DEN | IND vs. LAC | WAS vs. DAL | GB vs. ARI | ATL vs. SF | TB vs. DET | HOU vs.SEA

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*All data utilized in this article is courtesy of Fantasy Points Data, PFF, FTN, rbsdm.com, and Playerprofiler.com unless otherwise specified.*