The Primer: Week 9 Edition (2025 Fantasy Football)

Atlanta Falcons vs. New England Patriots

• NE -5.5, O/U 45
• Atlanta Falcons vs. New England Patriots Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Falcons Players & Weekly Rankings

Patriots Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• Drake Maye
• Bijan Robinson
• Drake London

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

TreVeyon Henderson (RB)

I feel like I’m getting the label of being a “TreVeyon hater.” I don’t think that’s deserved at all. I have just tried to stay objective regarding the data and Henderson’s usage. I loved Henderson as a prospect, but it has been rocky so far. I know everyone will look at last week’s stat line of ten carries and 75 rushing yards and be over the moon for Henderson’s outlook this week with Rhamondre Stevenson out. Ok, let’s pop open the hood and look at last week’s game. Last week, Henderson played only 21.5% of the snaps with an 8.8% route share (only three routes). He did have three red zone carries to Stevenson’s two. With his ten carries last week, Henderson forced only one missed tackle (10% missed tackle rate) with 1.50 yards after contact per attempt. He had 6.0 yards before contact per attempt, which is insane, so basically Henderson got what was blocked and little else. That has been the case for the rest of the season as well. This season, Henderson has only an 8% missed tackle rate and 1.68 yards after contact per attempt. Among 40 qualifying backs, he ranks 36th and 39th in those categories. I don’t think Henderson will have the backfield all to himself this week, but he could lead the way. The Falcons are a nice matchup for him. Since Week 4, Atlanta has allowed the third-most rushing yards per game and the fifth-most yards after contact per attempt while also having the sixth-lowest stuff rate.

Stefon Diggs (WR)

After monster games in Weeks 4 & 5, Stefon Diggs has been quieter over the last three games. Since Week 6, he has had a 67.3% route share, a 20.3% target share, 37 receiving yards per game (1.63 yards per route run), and a 22.8% first-read share. In those three games, Diggs has five red zone targets and zero deep targets. Diggs should have another solid game, but if these nagging injuries are impacting his snaps and usage, I wouldn’t expect a monster game this week. Since Week 4, Atlanta has allowed the seventh-most PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.

Kayshon Boutte (WR)

Kayshon Boutte has been crushing as the WR35 in fantasy points per game. He has four top-24 weekly wide receiver finishes this season. He has been a top-24 wide receiver in each of the last three games (WR4, WR24, WR12). Boutte has a 12.7% target share, a 28.3% air-yard share, 2.10 yards per route run, and a 15.2% first-read share. He leads the team with nine deep targets while having only one red zone target. This week, he faces an Atlanta secondary that has utilized single high at the highest rate in the NFL (72%). Against single high, Boutte has seen his target share increase to 16.2% with 2.10 yards per route run and a 16.8% first-read share. He should continue the hot streak this week. Since Week 4, Atlanta has allowed the seventh-most PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.

Kyle Pitts (TE)

Don’t look now, but Kyle Pitts is the TE10 in fantasy points per game and has finished as a TE1 in weekly scoring in three of his last four games (TE3, TE12, TE6). Pitts has a 20.2% target share with 49.1 receiving yards per game (1.54 yards per route run) and a 17.3% first-read share. He has three red zone targets and one deep target. He’s set up for another strong game this week against a defense that has allowed the fifth-most receiving yards per game and the tenth-most schedule-adjusted fantasy points per game to tight ends.

Fantasy Football Flex & Deep Plays to Consider

Let’s fill out those flex spots.

Michael Penix Jr. (QB)

Michael Penix Jr. will be back under center in Week 9. He is the QB30 in fantasy points per game with two QB1 outings this season (QB10, QB12). Among 45 qualifying quarterbacks, Penix Jr. ranks 18th in yards per attempt, 34th in highly accurate throw rate, 42nd in catchable target rate, 32nd in fantasy points per dropback, and he has the ninth-highest off-target rate. He has struggled as a passer this season and doesn’t have enough rushing production weekly to cover up his passing sins to be successful in fantasy. Penix Jr. could return decent QB2 production this week, but I wouldn’t expect much more than that. Since Week 4, New England ranks 16th in CPOE and 18th in passer rating, success rate per dropback, and passing touchdowns allowed.

Terrell Jennings (RB)

Terrell Jennings is a viable deep league flex play this week. Yes, if you don’t know who Jennings is, that’s ok. Let’s have a conversation about him. Jennings is a 24-year-old undrafted second-year back out of Florida A&M. At his pro day, he ran a 4.66 40-yard dash time. At Florida A&M, he never had more than 673 rushing yards or seven receptions in a season. Now, that doesn’t mean he didn’t have a productive career. In his final collegiate season, among 290 qualifying FBS/FCS backs, he ranked sixth in yards after contact per attempt, 37th in breakaway percentage, and tenth in elusive rating. Jennings is a talented back despite his unheralded status. He doesn’t have a long resume in the regular season in the NFL, but in the preseason over the last two years, he has tallied 3.44 yards after contact per attempt (18 carries). Jennings could split the backfield work with TreVeyon Henderson this week in a good matchup. We don’t know how the workload will be split between these two players, with New England hesitant all season to give Henderson a big workload. Since Week 4, Atlanta has allowed the third-most rushing yards per game and the fifth-most yards after contact per attempt while also having the sixth-lowest stuff rate.

Darnell Mooney (WR)

Darnell Mooney hasn’t finished higher than WR32 in weekly scoring this season. In four of his five games this season, he has been outside the top 40 wide receivers in weekly fantasy scoring. Mooney has a 15.1% target share with 31.6 receiving yards per game (1.17 yards per route run) and a 20.8% first-read share. He has three red zone targets and four deep targets in five games played. Mooney is a middling flex this week against a secondary that, since Week 4, ranks 16th in PPR points per target and has given up the 12th-fewest receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.

Concerning Starts & Players to Fade

Players in consideration for lineups, but temper your expectations this week.

Hunter Henry (TE)

Hunter Henry is the TE14 in fantasy points per game with two TE1 weekly finishes (TE1, TE10), but none since Week 4. Henry has a 15.4% target share with 39.6 receiving yards per game (1.55 yards per route run) and a 17.1% first-read share. He is tied for the team lead with eight red zone targets while also having four deep targets. This week, I’d be streaming a tight end over Henry if you have him on your roster. Atlanta has allowed the fewest receiving yards per game and schedule-adjusted fantasy points per game to tight ends.

BAL vs. MIA | CAR vs. GB | MIN vs. DET | CHI vs. CIN | DEN vs. HOU | SF vs. NYG | IND vs. PIT | LAC vs. TEN | ATL vs. NE | JAC vs. LV | NO vs. LAR | KC vs. BUF | SEA vs. WAS | ARI vs. DAL

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Las Vegas Raiders

• JAC -3, O/U 44.5
• Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Las Vegas Raiders Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Jaguars Players & Weekly Rankings

Raiders Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• Brock Bowers

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Brian Thomas Jr. (WR)

Brian Thomas Jr. practiced in a limited fashion all week and doesn’t carry an injury designation into Week 9. Since Week 4, Thomas Jr. has been the WR28 in fantasy points per game with a 20.5% target share, 62.5 receiving yards per game (1.87 yards per route run), and a 25.8% first-read share. In those four games, he has only one red zone target but six deep targets. Since Week 6, Las Vegas has utilized two high at the fourth-highest rate (65.6%). Since Week 4, against two high, Thomas Jr. has had a 19% target per route run rate and 1.95 yards per route run. He should have a strong game this week against a Raiders’ secondary that, since Week 4, has allowed the eighth-most PPR points per target and the ninth-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers. With Travis Hunter out, Trevor Lawrence should lean on Thomas Jr.

Fantasy Football Flex & Deep Plays to Consider

Let’s fill out those flex spots.

Trevor Lawrence (QB)

Outside of his blowup performance against Kansas City, Trevor Lawrence has had one QB1 outing this season. He is the QB18 in fantasy points per game. Among 45 qualifying quarterbacks, Lawrence ranks 33rd in yards per attempt, 17th in passing yards per game, 36th in highly accurate throw rate, and 30th in fantasy points per dropback. Lawrence should be a serviceable QB2 this week against a secondary that, since Week 4, has ranked 16th in passing yards per game, 14th in CPOE, and given up the sixth-highest success rate per dropback.

Geno Smith (QB)

Geno Smith has hit rock bottom as the QB32 in fantasy points per game. He hasn’t hit double-digit fantasy points since Week 4. Among 45 qualifying passers, he ranks 36th in fantasy points per dropback, 21st in highly accurate throw rate, 35th in catchable target rate, and 26th in yards per attempt. Smith could have an unexpected bounce-back game this week. Jacksonville’s pass defense has struggled since Week 4, giving up the fifth-most yards per attempt, the third-most passing touchdowns, the ninth-highest CPOE, and the highest success rate per dropback.

Parker Washington (WR)

In Week 7, Parker Washington had a 77.2% route share with a 20.8% target share, a 38.3% air-yard share, 52 receiving yards  (1.18 yards per route run), and a 17.9% first-read share. Washington played 59.15 of his snaps on the perimeter (40.9% slot). Washington could move inside and become the team’s starting slot with Dyami Brown running opposite Brian Thomas Jr. on the perimeter. If you’re looking to flex Washington or Brown, I do give a slight nod to Washington. This season, Washington has a 13.1% target share versus Brown’s 11.8%. Washington has also bested Brown in yards per route run with 1.49 against Brown’s 1.43. Washington could also play on the perimeter, and Jacksonville could deploy more 12/21 personnel. We’ll have to see how this situation evolves. Washington has only two red zone targets this season, but he’s second on the team with nine deep targets. Las Vegas has allowed the tenth-highest deep completion rate, deep passer rating, and deep passing yards per game. Since Week 6, Las Vegas has utilized two high at the fourth-highest rate (65.6%). Since Week 6, Washington has led the team with a 23% target per route run rate against two high. Las Vegas has allowed the seventh-most schedule-adjusted fantasy points per game to wide receivers this season.

Tre Tucker (WR)

Outside of Tre Tucker‘s monster game in Week 3, he has three top-36 wide receiver finishes in weekly scoring (WR24, WR36, WR24). In that six-game sample, Tucker has had a 17.1% target share with 40.7 receiving yards per game (1.42 yards per route run) and a 24.1% first-read share. In that sample, he has three red zone targets and five deep targets. Tucker is a strong flex play this week against a Jags secondary that, since Week 4, has allowed the fifth-most PPR points per target and the third-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.

Concerning Starts & Players to Fade

Players in consideration for lineups, but temper your expectations this week.

Ashton Jeanty (RB)

Ashton Jeanty is the RB17 in fantasy points per game, averaging 18 touches and 75.9 total yards. He ranks 12th in snap share, fourth in opportunity share, and tenth in red zone touches. Among 60 qualifying backs, Jeanty ranks tenth in missed tackle rate and 21st in yards after contact per attempt. Jeanty has a tough matchup this week that he’ll need all the volume he can muster to overcome, as his offensive line won’t be helping him much. Since Week 4, the Raiders have the eighth-lowest yards before contact per attempt. Since Week 4, Jacksonville has allowed the 12th-fewest rushing yards per game, the ninth-lowest explosive run rate, and the eighth-fewest yards after contact per attempt.

Travis Etienne Jr. (RB)

Travis Etienne is the RB20 in fantasy points per game, averaging 15.9 touches and 84.8 total yards. He is tenth in snap share, 19th in weighted opportunities, and 17th in red zone touches among running backs. Among 60 qualifying backs, Etienne ranks 19th in explosive run rate and 26th in yards after contact per attempt. The Raiders have toughened up as a run defense and present a sizable obstacle for Etienne this week. Since Week 4, the Raiders have allowed the fifth-lowest explosive run rate, the tenth-fewest rushing yards per game, and the fourth-lowest yards before contact per attempt. Etienne is a volume play that you hope gets into the end zone this week.

Jakobi Meyers (WR)

I don’t want to plug Jakobi Meyers into a flex spot this week. He’s the WR43 in fantasy points per game, commanding a 22% target share with 54.8 receiving yards per game (1.71 yards per route run) and a 26.1% first-read share. In six games played, Meyers has five red zone and deep targets. The Jags have been a shutdown unit against slot receivers, allowing the fewest PPR points per target and the second-fewest receiving yards per game since Week 4. Sit Meyers this week.

BAL vs. MIA | CAR vs. GB | MIN vs. DET | CHI vs. CIN | DEN vs. HOU | SF vs. NYG | IND vs. PIT | LAC vs. TEN | ATL vs. NE | JAC vs. LV | NO vs. LAR | KC vs. BUF | SEA vs. WAS | ARI vs. DAL

New Orleans Saints vs. Los Angeles Rams

• LAR -14, O/U 44
• New Orleans Saints vs. Los Angeles Rams Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Saints Players & Weekly Rankings

Rams Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• Kyren Williams
• Puka Nacua
• Davante Adams

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Matthew Stafford (QB)

Matthew Stafford is playing some of the best football of his storied career as the QB10 in fantasy points per game. Among 45 qualifying passers, he ranks third in passing yards per game, first in passing touchdowns and hero throw rate, and 11th in yards per attempt. The Saints’ pass defense is playing better, but I’m not scared of this unit at all. Since Week 4, New Orleans is 16th in yards per attempt, 20th in success rate per dropback, and has allowed the eighth-highest CPOE. Stafford should flirt with strong QB1 production again this week.

Fantasy Football Flex & Deep Plays to Consider

Let’s fill out those flex spots.

Chris Olave (WR)

Just when things were starting to look up for Chris Olave, the Saints coaching staff decided to possibly capsize the rest of his 2025 campaign by switching to Tyler Shough. I’m not saying Spencer Rattler has been amazing, but I don’t see better things happening with Shough under center. Olave is the WR17 in fantasy points per game with a 27.6% target share, a 36.4% air-yard share, 1.73 yards per route run, and a 32% first-read share. He leads the team with eight red zone targets and 13 deep targets. This week, he’ll face off against a secondary that has the eighth-highest single high rate (56.5%). Against single high, Olave has smashed with a 32% target per route run rate and 2.30 yards per route run. If Shough doesn’t crush all of the receiving options in this offense, Olave should be able to muster a decent performance. Since Week 4, the Rams have held perimeter receivers to the eighth-fewest PPR points per target while allowing the tenth-most receiving yards per game.

Rashid Shaheed (WR)

Rashid Shaheed is the WR39 in fantasy points per game and has been having a strong season, but with the injection of Tyler Shough into this offense, that could possibly come to a screeching halt. Shaheed has three top-36 weekly finishes in wide receiver scoring. Shaheed has a 19.7% target share, a 28.2% air-yard share, 53.9 receiving yards per game (1.63 yards per route run), and a 21.5% first-read share. He is second on the team in red zone targets (six) and deep targets (11). This week, he’ll face off against a secondary that has the eighth-highest single high rate (56.5%). Against single high, Shaheed has had decent numbers with a 22% target per route run rate and 1.55 yards per route run. Shaheed is regulated to low-end flex territory with Shough under center. Since Week 4, the Rams have held perimeter receivers to the eighth-fewest PPR points per target while allowing the tenth-most receiving yards per game.

Concerning Starts & Players to Fade

Players in consideration for lineups, but temper your expectations this week.

Tyler Shough (QB)

I’m not remotely contemplating plugging Tyler Shough into a lineup in his first NFL start. Last week, in his NFL debut, he had only 4.0 yards per attempt, a putrid 43.8% highly accurate throw rate, and a horrific 65.6% catchable target rate. Even if I can excuse all of that, the matchup is horrendous. Since Week 4, Los Angeles has allowed the third-fewest yards per attempt, passing touchdowns, and passer rating. Yeah, no thanks.

Alvin Kamara (RB)

Alvin Kamara has played 51.4-62.5% of the snaps in three of his past four games while averaging 12.3 touches and 51.3 total yards. Kamara hasn’t scored a touchdown since Week 1 and looks like he’s running out of gas in 2025. His per-tough metrics aren’t anything to write home about, with a 3% explosive run rate, a 13% missed tackle rate, and only 1.62 yards after contact per attempt. He won’t find running room again this week, and he doesn’t have the passing usage to save him anymore if he doesn’t get it done on early downs. Since Week 4, the Rams have held backs to the third-lowest explosive run rate and missed tackle rate and the tenth-fewest yards after contact per attempt.

Juwan Johnson (TE)

Juwan Johnson has a 78.1% route share, a 17.6% target share, 46 receiving yards per game (1.43 yards per route run), and a 22% first-read share. He is third on the team in red zone targets (four) and has two deep targets. He is the TE16 in fantasy points per game and best left on the bench this week. The Rams have held tight ends to the eighth-fewest receiving yards per game and schedule-adjusted fantasy points per game.

BAL vs. MIA | CAR vs. GB | MIN vs. DET | CHI vs. CIN | DEN vs. HOU | SF vs. NYG | IND vs. PIT | LAC vs. TEN | ATL vs. NE | JAC vs. LV | NO vs. LAR | KC vs. BUF | SEA vs. WAS | ARI vs. DAL

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Buffalo Bills

• KC -2, O/U 52.5
• Kansas City Chiefs vs. Buffalo Bills Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Chiefs Players & Weekly Rankings

Bills Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• Josh Allen
• Patrick Mahomes II
• James Cook
• Rashee Rice

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Kareem Hunt (RB)

Kareen Hunt will lead the backfield this week with Isiah Pacheco sidelined. He has averaged 8.8 touches and 37.7 total yards this season as the RB40 in fantasy points per game. Hunt has three top-24 weekly finishes this season already (RB22, RB8, RB12). Hunt hasn’t been impressive on a per-touch basis, with only a 10% missed tackle rate and 2.16 yards after contact per attempt. He could still have a strong fantasy day in Week 9 just based on volume and touchdown equity that he has in the offense. Hunt is tied for 15th in the NFL in rushing attempts inside the five-yard line. Since Week 4, Buffalo has allowed the sixth-most rushing yards per game, the tenth-highest explosive run rate, and the second-highest missed tackle rate.

Fantasy Football Flex & Deep Plays to Consider

Let’s fill out those flex spots.

Khalil Shakir (WR)

Khalil Shakir is the WR34 in fantasy points per game with a 19.2% target share, 50.9 receiving yards per game (2.06 yards per route run), and a 20.9% first-read share. He leads the team with eight red zone targets while also having three deep targets. The Chiefs have the sixth-highest two-high rate in the NFL (57.2%). Since Week 2, against two high, he is tied for the team lead with a 30% target per route run rate against two high while posting 1.67 yards per route run. Since Week 4, the Chiefs have allowed the second-fewest PPR points per target to slot receivers. I expect Josh Allen to lean on Shakir this week. The matchup is tough, but Shakir can still be a solid flex this week.

Xavier Worthy (WR)

Since Rashee Rice‘s return, Xavier Worthy has had a 15.9% target share with 44 receiving yards per game (1.47 yards per route run) and a 19.6% first-read share. He has two red zone targets and a deep target in those two games. Buffalo has the seventh-highest two high rate (57.1%). Against two high, Worthy has only a 17% target per route run rate and 0.59 yards per route run. Not good, Bob. Since Week 4, Buffalo has ranked 15th in PPR points per target and 18th in receiving yards per game allowed to perimeter wide receivers. Worthy is a middling flex play this week.

Travis Kelce (TE)

Travis Kelce is the TE6 in fantasy points per game, ranking 11th in deep targets and ninth in red zone targets among tight ends. Kelce has a 16.3% target share with 59.3 receiving yards per game (2.01 yards per route run) and a 19.1% first-read share. Buffalo has the seventh-highest two-high rate (57.1%). Against two high, Kelce ranks third on the team with a 21% target per route run rate and second in yards per route run with 1.90. Patrick Mahomes should lean on Kelce this week, but it won’t be easy sledding. Buffalo has allowed the second-fewest receiving yards per game and schedule-adjusted fantasy points per game.

Dalton Kincaid (TE)

Dalton Kincaid is the TE8 in fantasy points per game while ranking 11th at the position in deep targets and 14th in red zone targets. He has a 52.7% route share with a 15.3% target share, averaging 51.7 receiving yards per game (2.84 yards per route run) with a 17.1% first-read share. The Chiefs have the sixth-highest two-high rate in the NFL (57.2%). Since Week 2, against two high, Kincaid is tied for the team lead with a 30% target per route run rate and leads the team with 2.48 yards per route run. Kincaid should see heavy usage when on the field this week, but the matchup is tough. Kansas City ranks 18th in yards per reception allowed to tight ends and has held the position to the fourth-fewest schedule-adjusted fantasy points per game this season.

Concerning Starts & Players to Fade

Players in consideration for lineups, but temper your expectations this week.

Brashard Smith (RB)

The last two games for Brashard Smith have been wonky. In Week 7, he had an elevated role in a blowout game. Last week, he played only nine snaps with three rushing attempts and zero targets. I expect him to take a large portion of the passing downs while mixing in for a handful of carries this week. This season, he has had a 6.4% target share, a 47% target per route run rate, and 3.21 yards per route run. He should find running room when he’s given rushing work. Since Week 4, Buffalo has allowed the sixth-most rushing yards per game, the tenth-highest explosive run rate, and the second-highest missed tackle rate. The Bills have been tough against receiving backs, though, giving up the third-fewest receiving yards per game and the fourth-fewest yards per reception. Smith is a low-end PPR flex.

Keon Coleman (WR)

I’m not trusting Keon Coleman in any lineup this week. Since Week 2, he has finished higher than WR50 in weekly scoring only once. The Chiefs have the sixth-highest two-high rate in the NFL (57.2%). Since Week 2, against two high, he has only a 16% target per route run rate and 0.95 yards per route run. Since Week 4, Kansas City has held perimeter wide receivers to the eighth-fewest receiving yards per game and fantasy points per game. Sit Coleman.

BAL vs. MIA | CAR vs. GB | MIN vs. DET | CHI vs. CIN | DEN vs. HOU | SF vs. NYG | IND vs. PIT | LAC vs. TEN | ATL vs. NE | JAC vs. LV | NO vs. LAR | KC vs. BUF | SEA vs. WAS | ARI vs. DAL