Let’s take a look at some of the players with the largest standard deviation between high and low expert ranks in FantasyPros’ expert consensus rankings (ECR). Which players are the safest starts, and who poses the biggest risk to your fantasy football lineup in Week 13?
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Week 13 Risky Fantasy Football Starts
Devin Neal (RB – NO) @ Miami Dolphins
- Highest Rank: RB23
- Lowest Rank: RB34
We don’t have official word on Alvin Kamara‘s Week 13 status, but if Kamara is out, Devin Neal steps in as the lead back. Neal’s contributions as a backup have been minimal, but he showcased upside in the main thing that matters to us as fantasy managers — receiving work.
Kamara was injured fairly early in Week 12 against Atlanta. Neal had seven carries for 18 yards but added five receptions on seven targets for 43 yards to give him double-digit PPR fantasy points. Oddly enough, those seven targets are the most any Saints running back has seen in a game this season, and his success in yardage was very encouraging.
Miami’s defense can be a little hit or miss. We’ve seen high-yardage performances and multi-touchdown games, but also very underwhelming production from several prominent backs, including Breece Hall and Jonathan Taylor. Starting Neal is a risk, but he would likely get the majority of the work, making him a borderline RB2.
My Projected Finish: RB26
D’Andre Swift (RB – CHI) @ Philadelphia Eagles
- Highest Rank: RB25
- Lowest Rank: RB33
It’s a sad day when a third-string rookie running back — Devin Neal — has crept his way over D’Andre Swift in rankings. Swift has been on a downward spiral with worsening fantasy production each week for over a month. Unfortunately for Swift, Kyle Monangai has become extremely reliable with a solid floor.
Last week against Pittsburgh, Swift had just eight carries for 15 yards and one reception for 14 yards, plus a fumble that left him with just one fantasy point for the day. Swift was out-snapped and outplayed by Monangai. Chicago may be truly committed to riding the hot hand, and if Swift gets off to another poor start, he’s at risk of a terrible fantasy day in a difficult matchup against Philadelphia.
We’d be less concerned if we had any glimmer of hope for a touchdown, but the last time Swift scored was way back in Week 8, while Monangai is on a three-game touchdown streak. Swift is technically a lead back, but job security is a major issue.
My Projected Finish: RB27
Jordan Addison (WR – MIN) @ Seattle Seahawks
- Highest Rank: WR44
- Lowest Rank: WR53
J.J. McCarthy‘s status for Week 13 is unclear, and we may have rookie quarterback Max Brosmer starting. We don’t know what to expect out of Brosmer, but what we do know is that backup quarterbacks often default to the path of least resistance and end up hyper-targeting their superstar No. 1 WR.
With Brosmer at quarterback, Justin Jefferson is likely the only slightly playable option in Minnesota. With Carson Wentz, Jordan Addison was thriving on big plays and had a minimum of 11 fantasy points in PPR in his first four starts. However, with McCarthy, he scored a maximum of 10 fantasy points and has failed to crack 50 receiving yards. He is coming off a zero fantasy point game where he had just one target.
A matchup with Seattle does encourage the pass, as Minnesota will have to fight to keep up with Sam Darnold and Jaxon Smith-Njigba. However, Addison is an extremely risky play this week.
My Projected Finish: WR49
More Risky Starts
Week 13 Safe Fantasy Football Starts
Troy Franklin (WR – DEN) @ Washington Commanders
- Highest Rank: WR21
- Lowest Rank: WR28
Troy Franklin has become the most reliable receiver in the Broncos’ offense from a fantasy perspective. Courtland Sutton has been frustrating and underwhelming, while Franklin has had a minimum of eight targets in the past five games with four touchdowns, and he has showcased a solid floor with a high ceiling in good matchups.
While it may feel difficult to trust Franklin, given the reliability that Sutton has showcased over the years and the fact that he is theoretically still the No. 1 WR, at some point, we have to get comfortable with Franklin’s production. There’s a clear natural rapport between Bo Nix and Franklin going back to their college days. This week, he has a great matchup against the struggling Washington defense. Franklin is a reliable borderline WR2 and a solid Flex option.
My Projected Finish: WR25
Brenton Strange (TE – JAX) @ Tennessee Titans
- Highest Rank: TE12
- Lowest Rank: TE16
With a lack of clarity surrounding the Jaguars’ receiving corps and what the target share will look like if Brian Thomas Jr. returns, perhaps the safest pass-catcher isn’t a receiver, but rather a tight end. Brenton Strange doesn’t have a touchdown on the season, but he’s offered a solid floor with a minimum of 9.9 fantasy points in all but one game he played in full this season.
Strange had five receptions on five targets for 93 yards in his return from injured reserve (IR). This week’s matchup isn’t very tight end friendly, but Strange has been a reliable volume tight end with a clear role and no competition for other tight ends, in a game where Jacksonville should move the ball very well.
My Projected Finish: TE12
Sam Darnold (QB – SEA) vs. Minnesota Vikings
- Highest Rank: QB12
- Lowest Rank: QB18
Quarterback has gone from bountiful and plentiful down to sketchy and uncertain in the blink of an eye. Matchups are really the main issue this week for many of our typical borderline QB1 streaming options. Quarterbacks like Caleb Williams, Brock Purdy and Daniel Jones are in terrible matchups, making a quarterback like Sam Darnold a very safe and reliable option.
Darnold was a fairly reliable streaming option earlier in the season, but he hit a rough stretch of poor defensive matchups and underwhelming performances. He bounced back in Week 12 against Tennessee, finishing as the fantasy QB11, and this matchup against Minnesota is somewhat agreeable to the pass.
The Vikings have limited their past three opposing quarterbacks — Jordan Love, Caleb Williams and Lamar Jackson — to fewer than 200 passing yards, but those limitations are not unusual for those quarterbacks. Darnold should have strong volume in this matchup, his first revenge game against the Vikings.
My Projected Finish: QB14
More Safe Starts
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